US: Empire manufacturing (Jan.): 3.5 vs 6 expected (prior: 4.9)
- Sentiment has declined on both current and future situation.
- In details, picture was more contrasted as prices and new orders were up on the short term, while shipments and employment were down.
- On expectations, all sectors were down except new orders and shipments.
- Confidence is on weakening trend, with large differences across sectors, reflecting uncertainties weighing on the economic outlook from a firm point of view.
US: Retail sales (Dec.): -0.7% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -1.4% revised from -1.1%)
- Core sales were sharply down by 1.9% m/m and prior month data were revised lower (-1.1% m/m vs -0.5% m/m initial estimate).
- Sales were up for gasoline, clothes, building materials and autos, but sharply down for furniture, electronics and food.
- Sales were also heavily down for department stores, eating and drinking sectors reflecting the impact of the restrictions, but online sales were also negative.
- Data confirm deteriorating momentum in the economy in Q4, notably in the consumer, services and labor sectors.
- These data, in addition to latest negative non-farm payrolls, should give some support to further help to households on the budgetary side, and postpone any rapid change in Fed's strategy.
US: Industrial production (Dec.): 1.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.4%)
- Production has rebounded mainly due to utility sector.
- Production was down by 1.6% m/m on autos after 5% m/m the prior month; activity was sustained in utility, machinery, defense and construction sectors.
- Production index finished the year close to its Jan.20 level, having recovered from the Q2 lows. The industrial sector was a support in Q4, moderating the slowdown in place in services and consumer sectors.
US: PPI (Dec.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Rebound in monthly prices was driven by energy prices, up by 5.5% m/m; prices in services were down by 0.1% m/m.
- Yearly trend remained stable at 0.8% y/y.
US: Business inventories (Nov.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7%)
- Sales were down by 0.1 % m/m.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Jan.): 79.2 vs 79.5 expected (prior: 80.7)
- Sentiment has decreased more than expected globally; expectations were weaker than expected (index at 73.8 vs 74 expected, 74.6 prior month) and sentiment on current situation was more resilient (index at 87.7 vs 87 expected, 90 the prior month).
- Preliminary index has pointed toward rising concerns on weakening financial situation and income, worries about future economic situation, uncertainties on future policy; sentiment on unemployment remained surprisingly positive in this context.
- Willingness to spend has declined for major items such as autos and houses from the prior month.
- Virus contagion, restrictions and changes in political power have increased concerns and uncertainties for consumers.
UK: Industrial production (Nov.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 1.3%)
- Manufacturing production was up by 0.7% m/m thanks to firmer activity in equipment and intermediate goods.
- Production in mining, electricity and utility has sharply contracted over the month.
- Large disparities across sectors should continue, while global lockdown should deteriorate activity in Dec.-Jan.
- Separately, GDP proxy for Nov. was less negative than expected (-2.5% vs -4.6% q/q) thanks to the cushion of the industry and quite resilient consumption. Dec. and Jan. data should remain negative.
Sweden: CPI (Dec.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0%)
- Prices of energy, transport and clothes have accelerated over the month; core inflation was up by 0.6% m/m after 0% m/m the prior month.
- Headline trend has accelerated from 0.2% y/y the prior month to 0.5% y/y.
France: CPI (Dec.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Final data confirmed the monthly rise due to higher energy and transport prices while prices of food and clothes were down over the month; services were up by 0.5% m/m after several months of weak or negative changes.
- Yearly trend remained weak at 0% y/y after 0.2% y/y the prior month.
Spain: CPI (Dec.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Prices of energy, transport, housing and leisure were up over the month, while prices of food and clothes declined over the period. Core inflation was flat over the month after 0.3% m/m the prior month.
- Yearly trend has turned less negative, from -0.8% y/y the prior month to -0.6% y/y.
Poland: CPI (Dec.): 0.1% m/m (prior: 0.1%)
- Prices of energy and transport have accelerated over the month, while those of clothes declined and were quite flat in other sectors.
- Yearly trend has eased from 3% y/y the prior month to 2.4% y/y.
Brazil: Retail sales (Nov.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.9% expected (prior: 2.1%)
- Broad sales remained sustained over the month thanks to autos and construction; excluding these two sectors, sales were down by 0.1% m/m, with only support in clothes, health and communication.
- After strong rebound in past months, trend is weakening.