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Expertises d'investissement

Monthly Investment Outlook

Monthly Investment Outlook

We publish a Monthly Investment Outlook that highlights our convictions on equities and bonds, as well as recent asset allocation changes.


Summary

  • MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - A mature bull market is not something to fear
  • GLOBAL TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION - Stay overweight equities with focus on quality
  • UBP ECONOMIC OUTLOOK -  Towards moderate expansion
  • UBP ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - Fed's monetary policy : progressive end of support
  • GLOBAL BONDS - Favour short duration debt
  • GLOBAL EQUITIES - Increasing focus on high quality companies
  • RECENT VIEW CHANGES - Favour quality and adding asymmetry

  • Global equity markets continued to climb in August while fixed income investors saw headwinds with rising risk-free yields joining volatile credit spreads in the month.
  • After a strong reopening driven rebound, global expansion is expected to moderate in the coming quarters.
  • Global expansion should continue, but at a more moderate pace after a strong recovery in H1-21. Despite virusrelated uncertainties, a return to full lockdowns is not expected. However, emerging countries are still lagging with vaccinations and face continuing restrictions suggesting a slow recovery trajectory ahead.
  • The Jackson Hole symposium is often a good time to present new developments in monetary strategy; last year, it was about a flexible average inflation target and this year is about tapering i.e., preparing the Fed’s exit strategy .
  • Markets have been hesitant amid the increasing probability of a Fed tapering, mixed economic data and growing concerns about the economic impact of the Delta variant.
  • Helped by notably strong Q2 earnings, global equity markets rose to new all-time highs in August, with some volatility mainly due to the potential impact of the Delta variant.
  • The US economic recovery is increasingly mature and has already started the next stage, a “Mini-cycle” as expected. Equity volatility and drawdowns should increase looking ahead. A proactive and dynamic risk management approach therefore becomes increasingly key to navigating the final stages of the recovery phase.
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