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Expertises d'investissement

Monthly Investment Outlook

Monthly Investment Outlook

We publish a Monthly Investment Outlook that highlights our convictions on equities and bonds, as well as recent asset allocation changes.


Summary

  • MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - Preparing for an inflection in monetary policies looking ahead
  • GLOBAL TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION - Quality earnings are key
  • UBP ECONOMIC OUTLOOK -  Renewed risk weighing on growth
  • UBP ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - Could the new variant derail the cycle ?
  • GLOBAL EQUITIES - Less visibility going into next year
  • GLOBAL BONDS - To favour hedge fund strategies on credit
  • RECENT CHANGES - Add quality growth and seek asymmetry

  • Volatility returned to both equity and bond markets in November and December as equities exited earnings season and markets began to prepare for a change in Fed policies looking ahead.
  • Renewed downside risks weigh on activity at year end, due to rising infection rates in several European countries and the new Omicron variant spreading from South Africa.
  • The growth cycle is expected to continue at a moderate pace of 4% in 2022 after 5.6% in 2021. Nevertheless, growth trend should remain firmer than pre-COVID growth.
  • Rising Delta cases in Europe and the emergence of the Omicron variant represent major tail risks that have reignited fears of stagflation and an end to the cycle.
  • Global equity markets fell sharply at the very end of November following reports relating to the Omicron variant but recovered almost completely amid reassuring news about its severity and vaccine effectiveness.
  • Government bond yields (10y) have declined over the month on fears the virus and its new variant may end current expansion. But bonds faced high volatility and dispersion of performances across the yield curve. As high inflation remains an issue, the Fed adopted a more hawkish communication, pointing towards more persistent high inflation than estimated and pre-announcing a faster tapering in Q1-22.
  • Despite the volatility since the end of November, global markets have delivered a stellar year-to-date performance of around 20% a year after the global pandemic hit the world. The strong economic and earnings recovery occurred amid unprecedent monetary and fiscal support from central banks and governments across the world.
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