UBP’s Investment Outlook 2018 focuses on “Opportunities and Risks Late in the Economic Cycle”.
Starting on 23 November, this year’s investment outlook will tour 14 different locations across Europe, Middle East and Asia featuring presentations by Co-CEO of Asset Management & Group CIO Michaël Lok, CIO of Private Banking Norman Villamin, Chief Economist Patrice Gautry, and several other experts.
The economic boom carries on
The coming year should prove pivotal for policy-makers and investors alike as central-bank support is withdrawn and private sector-led demand takes on the mantle of growth driver for economies around the world. In the current era of growing populism and efforts towards political reform, an expanded framework for assessing risks facing investors is required taking into account these new axes of risk.
As we enter 2018, Union Bancaire Privée remains optimistic about the global economy, and the major themes of its Investment Outlook 2018 are as follows:
- The economic boom carries on – This year and next, world growth will be the fastest in ten years, likely to average 3.6% in 2017 and 3.5% in 2018 as growth is less dependent on central bank support, and has become more synchronised around the world.
- Entering a new monetary regime – In 2018, a strategic shift should be seen in monetary policies as central banks gradually withdraw the support they have been providing to the economy since 2008.
- Getting ready for normal rates – With 2017 characterised by an end to rate-cutting by central banks, 2018 should see a move into the final step of the policy transition begun one year ago.
- Earnings growth in US equities – Positive returns in 2018 remain in store despite historically high valuations.
- Cyclical recovery meets structural headwinds in Europe – In 2018 Europe investors should focus on earnings growth as the primary equity return driver.
- Reform and restructuring takes hold in Japan – The long-suffering Japanese economy, much like Europe, should perk up at last and deliver 1.7% growth in 2017 as the benefits of global growth, domestic reforms and stimulus take hold.
- Domestic reform supports cyclical recovery in emerging markets – Next year should see significant political change across key emerging countries and should reveal maturing economies which will allow domestic policy changes to boost returns for investors.
- A long-cycle turn in commodities – Inflation-adjusted commodity prices are nearing pre-2000 lows.
The views outlined above are explained in full in UBP’s “Investment Outlook 2018” brochure.
Major first in Geneva for the Investment Outlook conferences
Organised in partnership with the Swiss daily, Le Temps, our first public Investment Outlook conference met with great success. The event, facilitated by the paper’s editor-in-chief, Stéphane Benoit-Godet, took place on 23 november evening at the Mandarin Oriental hotel in Geneva in front of an audience of nearly 250 clients and industry professionals who were there to listen to the analyses of the latest economic trends being put forward by a range of experts.
Following some initial perspectives from Patrice Gautry and Michaël Lok on the global macroeconomic context and its impact on investment strategies, a round-table discussion dedicated to Millennials was held with Aïna Skjellaug, a journalist at Le Temps, Gregory Logan, co-founder of The Shared Brain, and Moshmi Kamdar, our investment advisor at UBP. This round table was followed by a presentation on bitcoin held by Antoine Verdon, founder of Proxeus. A drinks reception closed this event.