US: Initial jobless claims (May 18): 211k vs 215k expected (prior: 212k)
US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (May): 50.6 vs 52.6 expected (prior: 52.6)
A broad-based fall in sentiment: production, employment, orders and exports.
Rising uncertainties on trade are major concerns that have delayed demand and depressed order books; firms will delay capex decisions in this environment and capex/employment is at risk.
US: Markit Services PMI (May): 50.9 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 53)
Weakening confidence also in services and the index is back to its 2016 level.
Softening demand, increasing competition and moderate growth in activity and orders have weighed down on sentiment.
Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (May): 47.7 vs 48.1 expected (prior: 47.9)
Eurozone: PMI Services (May): 52.5 vs 53 expected (prior: 52.8)
Sentiment in services has decreased; first estimate has pointed towards falling sentiment in Germany, while it has strongly rebounded in France.
Composite index has slightly increased, but underlying trend remains fragile in Germany.
France: Business confidence (May): 106 vs 105 expected (prior: 106 revised from 106)
Sentiment has increased on personal production and views on new orders were less depressed than past month.
Separately, sentiment was stable in construction, volatile in trade and service sectors.
This is a slow but progressive recovery trend.
Germany: IFO (May): 97.9 vs 99.1 expected (prior: 99.2)
Sentiment has decreased further, due to lower opinions on the current situation while expectations remained stable (they are now slightly higher than in Jan.).
By sector, sentiment was weaker in trade and services, stable in manufacturing, and rising in construction from past month.
Germany: GDP (Q1-19): 0.4% q/q as expected (prior: 0%)
As expected, GDP growth has rebounded thanks to consumption and investment, while net exports were negative.
Risk on Q2 GDP are on the downside as sentiment remains low and still weakening in manufacturing and service sectors.
Sweden: Unemployment rate (Apr.): 5.9% vs 6.5% expected (prior: 6.7%)
Norway: Unemployment rate (Apr.): 3.5% vs 3.7% expected (prior: 3.8%)
- Unemployment ratio is back in the range seen in 2013-2014.
Brazil: Consumer confidence (May): 86.6 (prior: 89.5)
Russia: PPI (Apr.): 0.5% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.9%)
Turkey: Industrial confidence (May): 98.9 (prior: 105.5)