Flash PMI: increasing in the US, while weakening in the Eurozone
US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb.): 55.9 vs 55.5 expected (prior: 55.5)
- In this flash estimate, sentiment on new orders and employment has increased further over the month.
- More supportive fiscal policy and weak USD have underpinned the improvement in business sentiment.
US: Markit Services PMI (Feb.): 55.9 vs 53.7 expected (prior: 53.3)
- In this flash estimate, higher sentiment on new orders and prices has driven the increase.
US: Existing home sales (Jan.): 5.38M vs 5.6M expected (prior: 5.56M revised from 5.57M)
- Sales of single family houses have decreased (from 4.9 M to 4.76 M); prices have moderated from past month sales, but remain in a positive trend (5.8% y/y for median; 4.7% y/y for average).
- Share of investors is on a rising trend, while the share of first time buyers is eroding.
Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Feb.): 58.5 vs 59.2 expected (prior: 59.6)
- Flash index points towards lower sentiment in industry, but the index remains at a high level.
- Sentiment has weakened more in France than in Germany, in which the index remained very high (60.3 after 61.1). It is possible to see eroding sentiment in peripherals after good results past months.
- EUR strength and turmoil in markets may have weighed down on confidence, but as expansion looks now pretty strong some stabilization in these leading indicators was already expected.
Eurozone: PMI Services (Feb.): 56.7 vs 57.6 expected (prior: 58)
- Flash estimate has weakened more in services than in manufacturing; Index has declined in France and in Germany.
- Despite decline in both monthly manufacturing and services indices, flash estimates remain in line with a 0.5%-0.6% q/q GDP growth in the eurozone.
Switzerland: M3 (Jan.): 4.1% y/y (prior: 3.6% revised from 3.2%)
- Growth in monetary aggregates has slightly accelerated at the beginning of the month.
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Jan.): 4.4% vs 4.3% expected (prior: 4.3%)
- Claimant count: 2.3% after 2.4%; jobless claims: -7.2 k after 6.2 k
- Unemployed has increased over the quarter under review, reversing trend in place previously.
UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Dec.): 2.5% y/y as expected (prior: 2.5%)
- Trend in wages was stable; wage growth in the manufacturing sector has increased from 2.7% y/y in Nov. to 2.9% y/y in Dec.