US: Wholesale inventories (Jan.): 1.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.3%)
- Inventories have increased for wholesalers but declined for retailers over the month.
US: Personal income (Jan.): 10% m/m vs 9.5% expected (prior: 0.6%)
- Disposable income has strongly rebounded (11.4% m/m) due to renewed unemployment and direct supports to households.
- Separately, wages were up by 0.7% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior month.
US: Personal spending (Jan.): 2.4% m/m vs 2.5% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.2%)
- Spending has rebounded from the prior month, due mainly to purchases of durable goods (8.4% m/m) while spending on service was modest (0.6% m/m).
- Saving ratio has strongly rebounded from 13.4% the prior month to 20.5%.
US: Core PCE (Jan.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Headline PCE inflation was up by 0.4% m/m due to higher energy prices.
- Yearly trend in core PCE remained quite stable at 1.5% y/y vs 1.4% y/y the prior month (revised from previous 1.5% y/y).
US: Chicago PMI (Feb.): 59.5 vs 61 expected (prior: 63.8)
- The index was back to its Nov. level, being highly volatile past quarters but remaining at high level; besides uncertainty on economy, bad weather conditions may have weighed down on sentiment with lower production and more delivery concerns.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Feb.): 76.8 vs 76.5 expected (prior: 79)
- The index was finally better than expected and in first estimate, but it has decreased from the previous month.
- Sentiment on current situation has slightly decreased, while expectations have decreased more meaningfully (but less than expected, from 74 to 70.7) back to its Nov. level.
- In details, the picture was mixed: volatile opinions around future personal financial situation, still positive outlook on future economy, but some concern on unemployment and easing in willingness to buy large items from the previous month.
France: Consumer spending (Jan.): -4.6% m/m vs -4% expected (prior: 22.4% revised from 23%)
- With renewed lockdown, sales have sharply decreased for manufactured goods.
- While spending on autos, food and energy, the sales of other manufactured goods were down by 25% m/m.
- Sales should remain depressed in Feb. but could improve in March-April on easier restrictions.
France: GDP (Q4-20): -1.4% q/q vs -1.3% expected (prior: 18.5%)
- Slightly more negative revisions to past Q4 GDP.
- Consumption was down by 5.4% q, while net exports, residential and capex were positive over the quarter.
- Q1-21 GDP should remain negative, but probably no more than 1% q contraction.
France: CPI (Jan.): 0% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- While energy prices have strongly rebounded, prices of food and goods have decreased over the month; services were up modestly by 0.1% m/m.
- Yearly trend stayed quite stable at 0.7% y/y after 0.8% y/y.
Spain: CPI (Jan.): -0.6% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.4%)
- First estimates pointed toward still negative trend in prices.
- Yearly trend turned back negative: -0.1% y/y after 0.4% y/y the prior month.
Switzerland: GDP (Q4-20): 0.3% q/q vs 0% expected (prior: 7.6% revised from 7.2%)
- Activity was more resilient than expected in Q4; consumption was down by 1.5%q but public consumption and capex were positive; exports and imports were both under contraction over the quarter.
- As lockdown continued, a flat growth or moderate contraction is expected in Q1, unless activity rebounds sharply on easier restrictions in March. GDP has contracted by 2.9% in 2020.
Switzerland: KOF (Feb.): 102.7 vs 96.6 expected (prior: 96.5)
- After several months of declining business confidence, the index has rebounded close to levels seen past Summer.
- As seen in Germany, confidence in industry is building up despite still existing headwinds.
Sweden: GDP (Q4-20): -0.2% q/q vs 0.5% expected (prior: 6.4% revised from 4.9%)
- Public and private consumption were both in contraction and investment was modestly positive (0.1% q). Net export contribution was more positive thanks to sharp rebound in exports over the quarter.
Norway: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 4.3% as expected (prior: 4.4%)
- After strong rebound the prior month, the unemployment ratio has eased somewhat over the month.