US: Non-farm payrolls (July): 1800k vs 1480k expected (prior: 4800k)
- Unemployment rate has fallen from 11.1% to 10.2% (10.6% expected)
- Better than expected job creations, even lower than the past month.
- Creations were still strong in services (1423 k after 4222 k prior month): leisure-hospitality (592 k), public sector (301 k), retail (258 k). Creations were modest but positive on construction and manufacturing (20-26 k range).
- Alternative measures on unemployment rates have decreased: U6 from 18% to 16.5%.
- Hours worked were quite stable (34.5 after 34.6); wage growth remained on a 4.8% y/y trend.
- Finally, the "strong numbers" mentioned by Trump, which is positive for the underlying economic recovery but less so for ongoing fiscal negotiations at Congress.
Germany: Trade Balance (June): 15.6bn EUR vs 11.3bn expected (prior: 7bn revised from 7.1bn)
- Current account: EUR 22.4 bn after 7 bn the prior month.
- Exports: 14.9% m/m after 8.9% m/m the prior month; imports: 7% m/m after 3.6% m/m the prior month.
- Export growth is gaining more traction, refueling orders in industry.
Germany: Industrial production (June): 8.9% m/m vs 8.2% expected (prior: 7.4% revised from 7.8%)
- A second month of a strong rebound in production of capital goods. Rebound has accelerated in the other sectors, notably the consumer goods.
- Total production index remained well below its March-Feb level.
France: Industrial production (June): 12.7% m/m vs 8.4% expected (prior: 19.9% revised from 19.6%)
- Manufacturing production was up by 14.4% m/m after 22.2% m/m the prior month.
- The rebound was once again driven by auto and also by activity in refinery over the past two months.
Spain: Industrial production (June): 14% m/m vs 10% expected (prior: 14.3% revised from 14.7%)
- A second month of strong recovery in industrial activity; the rebound was mainly driven by capital goods and the auto sector, but production momentum was also sustained in the other sectors.
- Total index of production was higher than its March level, but below the Feb. level.
Norway: Industrial production (June): -2.2% m/m (prior: -0.9% revised from -1%)
- Manufacturing production was up by 0.4% m/m after -3% m/m the prior month.
- Only chemical and ships-oil platforms sectors have shown growth in production over the month.
Brazil: CPI (July): 0.36% m/m vs 0.35% expected (prior: 0.26%)
- Trend has slightly accelerated from 2.13% y/y the prior month to 2.31% y/y.
- Prices of transport, housing and energy have rebounded over the month.