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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Dienstag 11 Dezember
US: moderate rise in producer prices; falling sentiment among small and medium firms

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Nov.): 104.8 vs 107 expected (prior: 107.4)

  • The fall in sentiment came mainly from lower sentiment on further improvement on the economy and sales. Views on employment and capex remained positive and still strong.
  • The index has gone back to the level seen at 2016 year-end, pointing towards some moderation in current activity.


US: PPI (Nov.): 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Energy prices were up by 1.3% m/m while energy prices were down by 5% m/m. Services prices were up by 0.3% m/m.
  • Core PPIs were up by 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% m/m expected.
  • Trend in headline PPI has moderated from 2.9% y/y to 2.5% y/y, while core PPI remained stable at 2.8% y/y.


UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Oct.): 4.1% as expected (prior: 4.1%)

  • Claimant count (Nov.): 2.8% after 2.7%; jobless claims: 21.9 k after 23.2 k past month.
  • While unemployment ratio remained low, trend in job creations has deteriorated since July 2018.


UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Oct.): 3.3% y/y vs 3% expected (prior: 3.1% revised from 3%)

  • Wage growth remained on a rising trend; rises in construction and services were up by 3.5% y/y, more than the global average rise.
  • This should maintain pressure on BoE, while trend in economy continues to slow down regularly.


Germany: Zew (Dec.): -17.5 vs -25 expected (prior: -24.1)

  • Expectations were less negative and have slightly regained, but views on current situation have continued to decrease.


Turkey: Current account (Oct.): 2.77bn USD vs 2.5bn expected (prior: 1.81bn revised from 1.83bn)

  • Current account has shown a surplus over the past three months. Trade balance has also improved, showing a surplus in Oct.


Montag 10 Dezember
US JOLTS survey: a still healthy underlying trend in labor

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Oct.): 7079 vs 7100 expected (prior: 6960 revised from 7009)

  • Despite some downwards revisions and slightly lower than expected data, trend remained positive for job openings and hirings; separations and quitters have moderated from the past months.
  • The JOLTS survey looks relatively more positive than the latest non-farm payrolls, with no real change in the underlying trend; this should comfort the Fed to continue to hike rates.


UK: Industrial production (Oct.): -0.6% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Production in the manufacturing sector has fallen more than expected. Activity was up in mining, oil & gas, but down in the other sectors.
  • Within manufacturing, production of durable goods was up by 1.3% m/m, while it was negative for intermediary goods, and has severely fallen in non-durable and investment goods.
  • Sentiment in manufacturing has rebounded in Nov., which could lead to some stabilization in activity, but political risks could weigh further down on the cycle.


Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Nov.): 2.4% vs 2.5% expected (prior: 2.5%)

  • The unemployment ratio seasonally adjusted has eased a bit from past month, to reach new historical lows since 2008.


Sweden: Retail sales (Oct.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0%)

  • Consumption stayed in negative territory.


Norway: CPI (Nov.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m vs 0% m/m expected. Inflation trend has increased further: 3.5% y/y after 3.1% y/y past month, and core inflation up by 2.2% y/y after 1.6% y/y past month.


Norway: PPI incl. Oil (Nov.): -3.2% m/m (prior: 3.6%)

  • PPIs have moderated from 22.5% y/y past month to 14.9% y/y.


Germany: Trade Balance (Oct.): 18.3bn EUR vs 17.1bn expected (prior: 18.3bn revised from 18.4bn)

  • Current account balance:  EUR 15.9 bn (EUR 18.8 bn expected; EUR 21.4 bn past month).
  • Exports have recovered after -0.4% m/m past month to 0.7% m/m by Oct.; imports have regained from flat to up by 1.3% m/m.


Italy: Industrial production (Oct.): 0.1% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.2%)

  • Production of consumer goods has rebounded (1.3% m/m after 0.7% m/m past month), while activity in other sectors has declined further.
  • The economic situation remains fragile and uncertainties on politics still dominate.


Turkey: GDP (Q3-18): -1.1% q/q vs -1.2% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.9%)

  • Activity has contracted in Q3 after moderate growth by Q2; growth trend has moderated from 5.3% y/y on Q2 to 1.6% y/y by Q3.
  • By sector, activity has sharply contracted in all sectors except exports.
Freitag 07 Dezember
US labor: positive underlying trend despite slower than expected monthly job creations

US: Non-farm payrolls (Nov.): 155k vs 198k expected (prior: 237k revised from 250k)

  • Data were below expectations and past month data have been revised slightly lower; the 3-month average is now at 170 k, still in line with a 2.5%-3% growth trend.
  • By sector, job creations offered a mixed picture across sectors: the good news were a stable trend in manufacturing, sustained numbers in retail (internet sales and delivery) and in education-health; the negative surprises came from creations below trend in temporary business, finance, information and in public sectors. The volatility in sectors could also be related with extraordinary events (weather, fires..) and it is too early to interpret it as a reversal in trend.
  • The unemployment rate was stable at 3.7%; alternative measure to unemployment has slightly increased in relation with lower creation in the temporary sector.
  • Wages growth has been slightly revised lower on a monthly basis (0.2% m/m in Nov. and 0.15% m/m in Oct.), but the yearly trend remains unchanged around 3% y/y.
  • Despite monthly volatility, trend remains positive in labor; the activity and job creations have probably passed a peak and growth in Q4 is expected at a slower pace than in Q3; these monthly numbers are far from being early signal of any recession and the Fed should normally hike its rates in next Dec.


US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Dec.): 97.5 vs 97 expected (prior: 97.5)

  • Views on current situation have rebounded, while expectations have slightly moderated with lower prospects of future employment. Willingness to consumer remained at a high level for large items.
  • Inflation expectations have eased a bit (2.7% y/y from 2.8% y/y at one year; 2.4% y/y from 2.6% y/y at 5 year).
  • Consumption is expected to remain on firm trend.


US: Wholesale inventories (Oct.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.7%)

  • Inventories have increased significantly for autos, computers and machines; total sales have moderated, being down by 0.2% m/m. Sales-to-inventory ratio is now on an increasing trend.


Norway: Industrial production (Oct.): 2.3% m/m (prior: -2% revised from -1.5%)

  • Manufacturing production has rebounded from -0.3% m/m past month to 1.5% m/m. The rebound in production was driven by energy, food and basic materials.
  • Contrary to some other countries, trend in production is rising.


France: Industrial production (Oct.): 1.2% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -1.6% revised from -1.8%)

  • The production in the auto sector has rebounded and activity has also regained in other sectors.
  • Nevertheless, yearly trend remained negative: -0.7% y/y for total production; -1.3% y/y for manufacturing sector.


Germany: Industrial production (Oct.): -0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

  • While production in capital goods was up by only 0.3% m/m, the activity in the other sectors was negative, particularly in consumer goods and energy (-3.% m/m in both sectors).
  • Yearly trend has turned more volatile in past months but it has rebounded from 0.1% y/y prior month o 1.6% y/y.


Brazil: CPI (Nov.): -0.21% m/m vs -0.09% expected (prior: 0.45%)

  • Prices of housing, clothes, transport and health have declined over the month. Yearly trend has moderated from 4.56% y/y to 4.05% y/y, being closer to central bank target.
Donnerstag 06 Dezember
Unexpected increase in US ISM non-manufacturing index

US: ISM Non manufacturing (Nov.): 60.7 vs 59.0 expected (prior: 60.3)

  • Unexpected increase, to less than a point from the cycle high.
  • The most forward looking components (business activity and new orders) both increased. On the other hand, the employment component and the new export orders index edged lower.

US: ADP Employment change (Nov.): 179k vs 195k expected (prior: 225k revised from 227k)

  • Some softening in job growth after a very strong print in October. The same is expected for non-farm payrolls tomorrow (consensus at 195k after 250k).

US: Initial jobless claims (Dec. 1): 231k vs 225k expected (prior: 235k revised from 234k)

  • Jobless claims have been on a rising trend over the past two and a half months but stabilized last week.

US: Factory orders (Oct.): -2.1% m/m vs -2.0% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.7%)

  • Close to consensus expectations but details of the report were slightly weaker with core capital goods category showing downward revisions to September growth.

US: Trade balance (Oct.): -55.5 bn USD vs -55.0 bn expected (prior: -54.6 bn revised from -54.0 bn)

  • This widening in the trade deficit was mainly driven by a further plunge in exports to China, and suggests that net trade will once again be a drag on GDP growth in Q4.


Germany: Factory orders (Oct.): 0.3% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.3%)

  • Y/y: -2.7% vs -3.1% expected (prior: -2.6%)
  • Factory orders unexpectedly rose for a third month, offering some hopes for a recovery after the economy contracted in Q3.


Russia: CPI (Nov.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • CPI y/y: 3.8% as expected (prior: 3.5%)
  • Core CPI: 0.4% vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.4%); 3.4% y/y as expected (prior: 3.1%)
  • Inflation accelerated for the 5th consecutive month, which leaves the door open to an interest rate hike next week.


Mittwoch 05 Dezember
Encouraging retail sales but soft services PMI in the eurozone

Eurozone: PMI Services (Nov F): 53.4 vs 53.1 expected (prior: 53.7)

  • Germany: 53.3 as expected (prior: 54.7)
  • France: 55.1 vs 55 expected (prior: 55)
  • Italy: 50.3 vs 49.3 expected (prior: 49.2)
  • Spain: 54 vs 53.9 expected (prior: 54)
  • Sentiment has slightly decreased; it has declined in Germany, but it has sharply risen in Italy.

Eurozone: Retail sales (Oct): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from 0%)

  • On a y/y basis: 1.7% vs 2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.8%).
  • The rebound in retail sales painted a more positive picture. Food, drink and tobacco prices rose by 0.6% m/m, while textiles prices have rebounded by 0.8% m/m (prior:-3.8%).

UK: PMI Services (Nov F): 50.4 vs 52.5 expected (prior: 52.2)

  • Sentiment has sharply declined and came close to contraction.
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