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US: New home sales (July): 635k vs 647k expected (prior: 728k revised from 646k)
Data have disappointed despite falling bond yields. Sales have decreased for all 4 major regions except one from past month. Sales have reentered a positive trend after stagnation and some weakness in 2018, but data have turned more volatile this year than in past years.
Inventories have significantly increased; prices of houses sold have increased over the month, but the yearly trend remains in negative territory (-4.5% y/y for median prices; -1.1% y/y for mean prices).
US: Initial jobless claims (Aug. 17): 209k vs 216k expected (prior: 221k revised from 220k)
Continuing claims: 1674 k after 1728 k past week.
US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 49.9 vs 50.5 expected (prior: 50.4)
New orders have passed below the 50 level according to flash estimate and firms have also reduced their inventories.
The export outlook has also weakened further, notably for the auto industry.
The PMI index remained above past recession levels, but its downward trend is worrying.
US: Markit Services PMI (Aug.): 50.9 vs 52.8 expected (prior: 53)
The service sector was no more resilient and appeared to be also impacted by a lower demand, in parallel with the manufacturing sector.
Significant easing in business confidence will fuel downside risks on US growth on Q3; Fed easing could only partly respond to the lack of new demand.
Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 47 vs 46.2 expected (prior: 46.5)
For the first time since many months, business sentiment has rebounded and was higher than expected.
Flash estimate has shown a rebound above 50 in France, and only first modest improvement in Germany, whose index stayed below 50 (from 43.2 the prior month to 43.6).
Business confidence seems to replicate the 2011-2013 period, having reached level which could form a potential bottom, if no further risks weigh on industry.
Eurozone: PMI Services (Aug.): 53.4 vs 53 expected (prior: 53.2)
Sentiment on services has increased more than expected; flash estimate pointed to parallel improvement in the French and German confidence index from past month; service index was back well above the 50 level.
Sweden: Unemployment rate (July): 7.1% vs 6.5% expected (prior: 6.7% revised from 6.6%)
Trend in employment has deteriorated and the unemployment rate (in SA data) has significantly increased.
Poland: Retail sales (July): 1.7% m/m vs 2.4% expected (prior: 1.5%)
Sales have rebounded less than expected; trend has improved: 5.7% y/y after 3.7% y/y the prior month in real terms.
Brazil: Consumer confidence (Aug.): 89.2 (prior: 88.1)
While expectations have slightly moderated, sentiment on current situation has rebounded, coming back close to the levels seen at the beginning of the year.
Turkey: Consumer confidence (Aug.): 58.3 (prior: 56.5)
Confidence has rebounded, being highly volatile over the past months; sentiment has improved on financial situation, economic environment and on employment.
US: Existing home sales (July): 5.42M vs 5.4M expected (prior: 5.29M revised from 5.27M)
Sales of single family houses have recovered to levels seen in 2017-2018, but they remained highly volatile; sales of condos were stable from past month, but remained lower than in 2017-2018.
Total inventories remained unchanged from past month (equivalent of 4.6 months of sales).
Median prices of houses sold remained high (4.2% y/y), but some moderation came from past month level.
Switzerland: M3 (July): 3.1% y/y (prior: 3.6% revised from 3.7%)
All monetary aggregates have shown some slowdown in growth from previous month.
Norway: Unemployment rate (June): 3.6% vs 3.4% expected (prior: 3.4%)
Unemployed has slightly increased over the past month, but it remained at low level.
Poland: Industrial production (July): 2.8% m/m vs 3.4% expected (prior: -5.9%)
Activity was very volatile over past months. Production has rebounded in the manufacturing sector (3.6%m/m), but remained depressed in mining and utility.
Switzerland: Trade balance (July): 3.63 Bn CHF (prior: 4.01Bn)
Real exports: -1.8% m/m after 2.5% m/m in June; real imports: -0.5% m/m after -1.3% m/m in June.
Germany: PPI (July): 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.4%)
Prices were flat ex energy over the month.
The yearly trend has moderated from 1.2% y/y past month to 1.1% y/y, and from 0.9% y/y to 0.7% y/y for PPIs ex energy.
Eurozone: CPI (July): -0.5% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.2%)
Energy prices and holiday packages have driven inflation lower than projected; the yearly trend has declined from 1.3% y/y to 1%, and core inflation from 1.1% past month to 0.9% y/y.
Inflation is expected to remain low in the next months, putting pressures on the ECB to deliver significant support by its next meeting.
Russia: Retail sales (July): 1% y/y vs 1.5% expected (prior: 1.4%)
Despite a monthly rebound, trend in consumption remained sluggish.
Russia: Unemployment rate (July): 4.5% as expected (prior: 4.4%)
Total unemployment has slightly increased, after two months improvement.
Russia: Real wages (July): 3.5% y/y vs 2.6% expected (prior: 2.9% revised from 2.3%)
Real wages have slightly increased.