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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Mittwoch 16 Oktober
Disappointing US retail sales in September but strong rise in homebuilders' sentiment

US: Retail sales (Sept.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.4%)

  • Ex auto & gasoline: 0.0% vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.1%)

  • Consumption hit a soft patch in September, but this comes after four consecutive months of strong sales averaging a strong 0.5% increase per month. Yearly trend remains robust at 4%.

  • Control retail sales that is used in GDP calculation GDP was unchanged (vs +0.3% expected), but strong gains in prior months brought its Q3 annualized q/q change to 6.8%, the second strongest gain since Q2 2014.

  • This weakness should be temporary as fundamentals for the consumer remain supportive: job gains, increase in real wages, low interest rates and net worth near record highs.


US: NAHB housing market index (Oct.): 71 vs 68 expected (prior: 68)

  • Homebuilder sentiment rose for the fourth consecutive month and climbed to the highest level since February 2018 thanks to cheaper borrowing costs and a still solid job market.


UK: CPI (Sept.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Moderate inflation, with high volatility at the sector level; lower prices in energy and transport versus a rebound in clothes, education and communication. Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m

  • Yearly trend remained unchanged at 1.7% y/y. Core inflation has slightly increased from 1.5% y/y to 1.7% y/y.

  • Brexit negotiations will have an impact on GBP and on imported inflation. Current data are well in line with BoE's target.


UK: PPI Input prices (Sept.): -0.8% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.1%)

  • All products have shown a decline in prices, partly related to change in currency and also to lower food and energy prices.

  • Yearly trend has sharply decreased from -0.9% y/y to -2.8% y/y.


UK: PPI Input prices (Sept.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0% revised from -0.1%)

  • Prices were also declining in food, energy and in some manufacturing sectors, but at a lower extend than in input prices.

  • Yearly trend has eased from 1.7% y/y the prior month to 1.2% y/y.


Eurozone: CPI (Sept. F.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Food and services prices have eased from past month.

  • Final inflation has eased more than in first estimate, from 1% y/y the prior month to 0.8% y/y. Core inflation was up 0.4% m/m and up 1% y/y after 0.9% y/y the prior month.


Italy: Industrial orders (Aug.): 1.1% m/m (prior: -2.8% revised from -2.9%)

  • Domestic and foreign orders have both slightly regained after depressed numbers; yearly trend remained depressed, down by 10% y/y.

  • Industrial sales were down 0.3% m/m, with foreign and domestic sales both on the decline. Yearly trend has also deteriorated, down by 2% y/y.


Italy: CPI (Sept.): 1.4% m/m (prior: 0%)

  • Inflation has rebounded, driven higher by prices of clothes, while food and energy declined.

  • Yearly trend has eased from 0.5% y/y to 0.2% y/y.

Dienstag 15 Oktober
UK labor losing momentum on job creations and on wage growth

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Aug.): 3.9% vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.8%)

  • Claimant count: stable at 3.3%; jobless claims: 21.1 k after 16.3 k the prior month. Over the past 3 months, employment has turned negative, showing a contraction by 56 k.

  • Despite still low unemployment rate, labor market has shown slightly deteriorating job creations and rising trend in jobless claims.


UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Aug.): 3.8% y/y vs 4% expected (prior: 3.9% revised from 4%)

  • Trend in wages has eased after a high pace reached over the past two months. This easing was broad based across sectors, including construction and finance in which the rises were the most significant.


Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Sept.): -0.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Prices were down by 2% y/y after -1.9% y/y the prior month.

  • Lower oil, food and textile prices have driven imported prices into negative territory (-4% y/y). Producer prices have followed the trend but at a slower pace, being down by 1% y/y.


France: CPI (Sept.): -0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Final data confirmed the decrease seen in preliminary estimates. Despite strong rise in clothes, lower food, energy and services prices have driven the decrease. Yearly trend has eased from 1.3% y/y the prior month to 1.1% y/y.


Germany: Zew (Oct.): -22.8 vs -26.4 expected (prior: -22.5)

  • Expectations have marginally eased from the prior month, but sentiment on current conditions has fallen significantly.


Poland: CPI (Sept.): 0% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Decreasing food and oil prices, balanced by firmer education and clothes prices.

  • Yearly trend has eased from 2.9% y/y the prior month to 2.6% y/y.


Turkey: Unemployment rate (July): 13.9% (prior: 13%)

  • After a decrease in Q2, unemployed has rebounded, due to rising youth unemployment and rising labor force;employment has continued to grow but at a low pace.

Montag 14 Oktober
Eurozone: industrial production slightly better oriented

Eurozone: Industrial production (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.4%)

  • Production was firmer than expected, but details offered highly contrasted picture; the rebound came from production in capital goods (1.2% m/m) and modest recovery in intermediate sector; the production in energy and consumer goods has shown a modest contraction.

  • The yearly trend has turned more negative, from -2.1% y/y the prior month to -2.8% y/y


Turkey: Industrial production (Aug.): -2.8% m/m (prior: 4.3%)

  • Except energy and computer, production has reversed part of the rebound seen the prior month.

  • The yearly trend has come back to -3.6% y/y; this contraction was also seen past June and in April, pointing towards highly volatile activity.

Freitag 11 Oktober
US consumer confidence on the rise

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Oct.): 96 vs 92 expected (prior: 93.2)

  • Preliminary data have revealed a strong rebound of sentiment on current conditions, but only a modest rise of expectations.

  • Current conditions index was back to its highest level of the year; expectations were on the middle of the range seen this year.

  • Sentiment has improved on personal finance; expectations on future economic situation and employment remained moderate below Q2; willingness to buy large items has significantly rebounded.

  • Inflation expectations have moderated: from 2.8% y/y to 2.5% y/y at 1-year; from 2.4% y/ to 2.2% y/y at 5-10y


Germany: CPI (Sept.): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Despite a strong rebound in prices of clothes, inflation has declined on lower energy prices.

  • Yearly trend has moderated from 1% y/y the prior month to 0.9% y/y.


Spain: CPI (Sept.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • A monthly rebound of clothes, but prices in other sectors were flat or slightly negative.

  • Yearly trend has moderated further, from 0.4% y/y the prior month to 0.2% y/y.


Donnerstag 10 Oktober
US inflation on a stable trend; mixed and volatile industrial production in Europe

US: CPI (Sept.): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Prices of energy and used cars have sharply declined over the month, while rents and health have both shown regular rise over past months.

  • Core inflation was up by 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% m/m expected.

  • Yearly trend remained stable at 1.7% y/y for headline inflation and at 2.4% y/y for core inflation.

  • Stable trend in inflation and still decent labor data do not raise pressure on the Fed, but the risk management approach remained valid given uncertainties on trade and on industry.



US: Initial jobless claims (Oct.5): 210k vs 220k expected (prior: 220k revised from 219k)

  • Continuing claims: 1684 k after 1655 k past week.


France: Industrial production (Aug.): -0.9% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Production in manufacturing has fallen by 0.8% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month.

  • Except food and refinery, the plunge in production was broad based across sectors, driven by utility and autos. Yearly trend has contracted by 1.4% y/y.


Germany: Trade Balance (Aug.): 16.2bn EUR vs 18.8bn expected (prior: 21.6bn revised from 21.4bn)

  • Current account balance has also narrowed in parallel, from EUR 21.3 bn to 16.9 bn.

  • Exports were down by 1.8% m/m (0.8% m/m the prior month); imports were up by 0.5% m/m after -2.4% m/m the prior month.


UK: RICS house price balance (Sept.): -2% vs -7% expected (prior: -4%)

  • Balance of sentiment has slightly improved, but details offered mixed picture; sentiment was less negative on prices and sales, but leading index of buyers traffic has strongly deteriorated after an improvement in the past three months. Inventories have increased again.


UK: Industrial production (Aug.): -0.6% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Manufacturing production has also sharply declined from 0.4% m/m the prior month to -0.7% m/m; the fall was broad- based across sectors.

  • In parallel, monthly proxy for GDP has contracted by 0.1% m/m after 0.4% m/m rise in July, and the index for services was flat over the month after 0.3% m/m the prior month.


Italy: Industrial production (Aug.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from -0.7%)

  • Monthly production has rebounded in textiles, machinery and in intermediate sectors; nevertheless, the yearly trend has deteriorated further, down by -1.8% y/y after -0.7% y/y the prior month.


Sweden: CPI (Sept.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.4%)

  • Prices of clothes, household goods and leisure have fueled the monthly rebound.

  • Yearly trend remained quite stable at 1.5%y/y for headline inflation and at 1.6%y/y for core inflation.


Norway: CPI (Sept.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: -0.7%)

  • Core CPI has also rebounded (0.6% m/m) over the month due to a rebound in prices of clothes, household goods and education.

  • Trend has remained quite stable at 1.5% y/y for headline inflation and 2.2% y/y for core inflation.


Brazil: Retail sales (Aug.): 0% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.7%)

  • Sales were mixed across sectors: contracting sales for clothes, furniture and health versus a strong rebound in communication.

  • Yearly comparison has turned volatile, showing some moderation: 1.4% y/y after 7.7% y/y.


Macro economic

The Chief Economist's weekly update

To help you navigate through the economic news, here is a summary of last week’s main events and what to look out for next week.

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