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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
Title
Teaser
Freitag 23 August
US new home sales have disappointed

US: New home sales (July): 635k vs 647k expected (prior: 728k revised from 646k)

  • Data have disappointed despite falling bond yields. Sales have decreased for all 4 major regions except one from past month. Sales have reentered a positive trend after stagnation and some weakness in 2018, but data have turned more volatile this year than in past years.

  • Inventories have significantly increased; prices of houses sold have increased over the month, but the yearly trend remains in negative territory (-4.5% y/y for median prices; -1.1% y/y for mean prices).

Donnerstag 22 August
Business sentiment has surprised positively in the Eurozone but has disappointed in the US

US: Initial jobless claims (Aug. 17): 209k vs 216k expected (prior: 221k revised from 220k)

  • Continuing claims: 1674 k after 1728 k past week.

 

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 49.9 vs 50.5 expected (prior: 50.4)

  • New orders have passed below the 50 level according to flash estimate and firms have also reduced their inventories.

  • The export outlook has also weakened further, notably for the auto industry.

  • The PMI index remained above past recession levels, but its downward trend is worrying.

 

US: Markit Services PMI (Aug.): 50.9 vs 52.8 expected (prior: 53)

  • The service sector was no more resilient and appeared to be also impacted by a lower demand, in parallel with the manufacturing sector.

  • Significant easing in business confidence will fuel downside risks on US growth on Q3; Fed easing could only partly respond to the lack of new demand.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 47 vs 46.2 expected (prior: 46.5)

  • For the first time since many months, business sentiment has rebounded and was higher than expected.

  • Flash estimate has shown a rebound above 50 in France, and only first modest improvement in Germany, whose index stayed below 50 (from 43.2 the prior month to 43.6).

  • Business confidence seems to replicate the 2011-2013 period, having reached level which could form a potential bottom, if no further risks weigh on industry.

 

Eurozone: PMI Services (Aug.): 53.4 vs 53 expected (prior: 53.2)

  • Sentiment on services has increased more than expected; flash estimate pointed to parallel improvement in the French and German confidence index from past month; service index was back well above the 50 level.

 

Sweden: Unemployment rate (July): 7.1% vs 6.5% expected (prior: 6.7% revised from 6.6%)

  • Trend in employment has deteriorated and the unemployment rate (in SA data) has significantly increased.

 

Poland: Retail sales (July): 1.7% m/m vs 2.4% expected (prior: 1.5%)

  • Sales have rebounded less than expected; trend has improved: 5.7% y/y after 3.7% y/y the prior month in real terms.

 

Brazil: Consumer confidence (Aug.): 89.2 (prior: 88.1)

  • While expectations have slightly moderated, sentiment on current situation has rebounded, coming back close to the levels seen at the beginning of the year.

 

Turkey: Consumer confidence (Aug.): 58.3 (prior: 56.5)

  • Confidence has rebounded, being highly volatile over the past months; sentiment has improved on financial situation, economic environment and on employment.

Mittwoch 21 August
US: existing home sales on recovery

US: Existing home sales (July): 5.42M vs 5.4M expected (prior: 5.29M revised from 5.27M)

  • Sales of single family houses have recovered to levels seen in 2017-2018, but they remained highly volatile; sales of condos were stable from past month, but remained lower than in 2017-2018.

  • Total inventories remained unchanged from past month (equivalent of 4.6 months of sales).

  • Median prices of houses sold remained high (4.2% y/y), but some moderation came from past month level.

 

Switzerland: M3 (July): 3.1% y/y (prior: 3.6% revised from 3.7%)

  • All monetary aggregates have shown some slowdown in growth from previous month.

 

Norway: Unemployment rate (June): 3.6% vs 3.4% expected (prior: 3.4%)

  • Unemployed has slightly increased over the past month, but it remained at low level.

 

Poland: Industrial production (July): 2.8% m/m vs 3.4% expected (prior: -5.9%)

  • Activity was very volatile over past months. Production has rebounded in the manufacturing sector (3.6%m/m), but remained depressed in mining and utility.

 

Dienstag 20 August
Negative momentum on Swiss exports

Switzerland: Trade balance (July): 3.63 Bn CHF (prior: 4.01Bn)

  • Real exports: -1.8% m/m after 2.5% m/m in June; real imports: -0.5% m/m after -1.3% m/m in June.

 

Germany: PPI (July): 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.4%)

  • Prices were flat ex energy over the month.

  • The yearly trend has moderated from 1.2% y/y past month to 1.1% y/y, and from 0.9% y/y to 0.7% y/y for PPIs ex energy.

 

Montag 19 August
Eurozone: low inflation increases pressures on the ECB

Eurozone: CPI (July): -0.5% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Energy prices and holiday packages have driven inflation lower than projected; the yearly trend has declined from 1.3% y/y to 1%, and core inflation from 1.1% past month to 0.9% y/y.

  • Inflation is expected to remain low in the next months, putting pressures on the ECB to deliver significant support by its next meeting.

 

Russia: Retail sales (July): 1% y/y vs 1.5% expected (prior: 1.4%)

  • Despite a monthly rebound, trend in consumption remained sluggish.

 

Russia: Unemployment rate (July): 4.5% as expected (prior: 4.4%)

  • Total unemployment has slightly increased, after two months improvement.

 

Russia: Real wages (July): 3.5% y/y vs 2.6% expected (prior: 2.9% revised from 2.3%)

  • Real wages have slightly increased.

 

Macro economic

The Chief Economist's weekly update

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