US: Personal income (Sept.): 0.9% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -2.5% revised from -2.7%)
- Wages were up by 0.8% m/m and disposable income was also up by 0.9 % m/m after -2.9% m/m the prior month.
- Resuming activity, labor and some support to income have underpinned disposable income.
US: Personal spending (Sept.): 1.4% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 1%)
- Spending was sustained for durable goods while they slowed down for services over the month.
- Saving ratio has eased from 14.8% the previous month to 14.3%.
US: Chicago PMI (Oct.): 61.1 vs 58 expected (prior: 62.4)
- Business sentiment has eased less than expected over the month and the index remained at a high level.
- Sentiment on new orders has increased but views on production, backlog of orders and employment has eased from the prior month.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Oct.): 81.8 vs 81.2 expected (prior: 80.4)
- Sentiment has improved from the prior month; sentiment on current conditions has finally eased less than expected, while expectations have increased further.
- Opinions have improved on personal financial situation, and consumers were less worried on employment and interest rates; expectations on future economic conditions have increased further.
- Willingness to buy has increased further for houses but eased on autos.
Eurozone: GDP (Q3-20): 12.7% q/q vs 9.6% expected (prior: -11.8%)
- The rebound was stronger than expected over the quarter, benefiting from the end of the first lockdown.
- The four major euro economies have all rebounded more than expected in Q3; with renewed restrictions in several countries a mild recession is expected in Q4 (GDP to be down by 1% q/q).
Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 8.3% vs 8.2% expected (prior: 8.3% revised from 8.1%)
- The unemployment ratio is on a rising trend since Q2; this trend should continue, and a peak could be reached in Q1-21.
Eurozone: CPI estimate (Oct.): -0.3% y/y as expected (prior: -0.3%)
- Flash estimate has pointed towards ongoing negative inflation, mainly due to falling energy prices.
- Over the month, prices were up by 0.2% m/m due a modest rebound energy, food and industrialized goods but prices of services have continued to fall.
- Core inflation was up by 0.2 % m/m and stayed also stable on a yearly basis at 0.2% y/y.
- Ms Lagarde mentioned the euro area did not enter a deflation, but persisting low inflation is a challenge for the monetary policy and its long-term target on inflation.
France: GDP (Q3-20): 18.2% q/q vs 15% expected (prior: -13.7% revised from -13.8%)
- A broad-based rebound in Q3; consumption was up by 17% q/q and total investment by 23.3% q/q; public consumption was also up by 15.4% q/q; export and imports have also rebounded, and net export contribution to growth was positive, adding 1.2 pp.
- Inventories have decreased, leading to a -1.8 pp contribution to GDP over the quarter.
- Unfortunately, renewed lockdown will depress further activity and -2% q/q contraction is expected in Q4.
France: Consumer spending (Sept.): -5.1% m/m vs -1.4% expected (prior: 2.2% revised from 2.3%)
- Sales have sharply decreased after past months rebound; the fall was broad-based across sectors, and more particularly pronounced in textile after summer discounts.
- Another large fall should be seen in Nov., related to renewed lockdown.
France: CPI (Oct.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.6%)
- Prices of services were down by 0.4% m/m, a second month of fall according to this first estimate. Prices of food (fresh food up by 1.8(% m/m) and manufactured goods (0.3% m/m) were up over the month.
- Yearly trend remained unchanged at 0% y/y.
Germany: GDP (Q3-20): 8.2% q/q vs 7.3% expected (prior: -9.7%)
- No detail available yet, but domestic demand should have underpinned the rebound.
Germany: Retail sales (Sept.): -2.2% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: 1.8% revised from 3.1%)
- After two months rebound, sales were down over the month; the fall was broad- based across sectors, as seen in France.
- These data could point towards still fragile and volatile consumption ahead of new restrictions, given consumption has supported the Q3 rebound in all developed countries.
Italy: GDP (Q3-20): 16.1% q/q vs 11.1% expected (prior: -13% revised from -12.8%)
- A more pronounced rebound than expected, no details available.
Italy: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 9.6% vs 10.1% expected (prior: 9.7%)
- A second month of fall in unemployed, contrary to expectations.
Italy: CPI (Oct.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 1%)
- A strong rebound in prices of clothes, and also some rises in food and utility; transport and energy costs have declined.
- Yearly trend was less negative, from -1% y/y the prior month to -0.6% y/y.
Spain: GDP (Q3-20): 16.7% q/q vs 13.5% expected (prior: -17.8%)
- A stronger than expected rebound in the economy, driven a firmer recovery of both consumption and investment during the quarter.
Switzerland: KOF (Oct.): 106.6 vs 108 expected (prior: 110.1 revised from 113.8)
- After a strong rebound over the past two months, sentiment has been revised down the prior month and eased in Oct. It remained at a high level. Activity should be impacted by slower growth in the eurozone in Q4 and renewed restrictions.
UK: Nationwide house prices (Oct.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.9%)
- Prices remained on a strong rising trend; yearly trend has accelerated from 5% y/y the prior month to 5.8% y/y.
Brazil: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 14.4% vs 14.2% expected (prior: 13.8%)
- The unemployment rate remained on a rising trend.