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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Dienstag 09 August
US: rebounding business sentiment in small firms; sharp decline in Q2 productivity gains

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (July): 89.9 vs 89.5 expected (prior: 89.5)

  • Sentiment among small firms has rebounded after several months of a regular decline.
  • Details offered a mixed picture: rising sentiment on inventories, a less negative view on future economy but still cautious stance on future sales; views on employment and wages stayed stable, while prices have eased after several months of rising pressures.


US: Nonfarm productivity (Q2-22): -4.6% q/q as expected (prior: -7.4% revised from -7.3%)

  • Output has declined by 2.1% q/q after -2.5% q/q in Q1-22; total compensation (5.7% q/q after 4.4%) has increased further, while hours worked were positive but on slower pace than in Q1-22 (2.6% q/q after 5.3%).
  • Unit labor costs were up by 10.8% q/q after 12.7% q/q in Q1-22.
  • Sustained job creations and rising wages and labor costs could fuel pressure on the Fed to continue its current tightening process.


UK: BRC retail sales (July): 1.6% y/y (prior: -1.3%)

  • Sales have apparently rebounded but due to high inflation while volumes have declined further.


Brazil: CPI (July): -0.68% m/m vs -0.65% expected (prior: 0.67%)

  • Prices came lower over the month thanks to tax cuts on oil and electricity and a decline in gasoline prices.
  • Price of energy-transport have declined by 4.5% m/m; prices of housing have declined by 1% m/m, but prices of food and personal expenditures remained sustained over the month.
  • The yearly trend has declined from 11.89% y/y the prior month to 10.07% y/y.
Montag 08 August
Switzerland: unemployment ratio has stabilized at low level

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (July): 2.2% as expected (prior: 2.2%)

  • Unemployed has slightly decreased over the month, in parallel with numbers of job seekers; job openings have also slightly decreased from the prior month.
  • The unemployment ratio was stable over the month and remained low.


Norway: Industrial production (June): -1.7% m/m (prior: 1.1% revised from 0.7%)

  • Manufacturing production was up by 0.3% m/m after -2.3% m/m the prior month.
  • Oil and mining activity was down by 5.2% m/m (4.7% m/m the prior month), while production of electricity and gas was up by 7.3% m/m (-0.8% m/m the prior month).


Norway: PMI (July): 54.6 (prior: 56)

  • Business sentiment has fallen over the month as index for new orders declined from 53.2 to 50.4.
Freitag 05 August
US: the surge in non-farm payrolls postpones any pivot in Fed’s strategy

US: Non-farm payrolls (July): 528k vs 250k expected (prior: 398k revised from 372k)

  • Payrolls were largely above expectations and pointed to a still healthy labor, despite some weakening signals (JOLTS, weekly jobless claims), and prior month data were revised up
  • Job creations remained sustained in all major sectors compared to the prior month, except a decline in business services (from 91 k to 89 k).
  • While employment has rebounded in industry and construction sectors from the prior month, job creations remained high in services, up by 402 k after 353 k prior month.
  • Within services, job creations were higher in education-health (from 109 to 122 k), leisure-hospitality (from 74 k to 96 k have rebounded in public sector (from -6 k to 57 k); in trade-transport, creations were up by 54 k after 50 k the prior month.
  • Wage growth has accelerated from 0.3% m/m to 0.5% m/m, and the yearly trend remained stable at 5.2% y/y.
  • Unemployment has declined over the month and the unemployment ratio has decreased from 3.6% to 3.5%; different measures of unemployment were or stable or slightly lower, but it was not a large fall in all unemployment ratios used. Interesting to note that leavers ratio has strongly rebounded over the month and the labor force has slightly decreased.
  • Such strong data will oblige the Fed to maintain a significant pace of tightening and no pivot in strategy to be seen in the short run.


France: Industrial production (June): 1.4% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0%)

  • Manufacturing production was up by 1.2% m/m after 1% m/m the prior month.
  • Activity by sector offered a mixed picture with a high volatility across sub sectors: rising activity in electricity, transport, and food but contraction in autos, mining, refineries, and water.
  • Special weather conditions and partial ease in shortages could favor some sectors, while underlying trend in industry should remain weak.


Germany: Industrial production (June): 0.4% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.2%)

  • Activity has rebounded after contraction in the prior month; all sectors were globally more positive than the prior month, except durable consumer goods.
  • Activity in construction was negative over the month, but it has regained in capital goods and for non-durable consumer goods.


Italy: Industrial production (June): -2.1% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -1.1%)

  • Activity has deteriorated further from the prior month, contrary to other European countries.
  • All sectors have shown sharp contraction over the month, except energy. The fall was driven by falling activity in durable consumer goods and capital equipment sectors.


Spain: Industrial production (June): 1.1% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.2%)

  • Activity has rebounded thanks to energy, non-durable consumer goods and capital goods; other sectors have shown flat or contracting activity.
Donnerstag 04 August
Bank of England: raising key rates and forecasting a long recession

US: Initial jobless claims (Jul.30): 260k as expected (prior: 254k revised from 256k)

  • Continuing claims have increased from 1368 k the prior week to 1416 k.


Germany: Factory orders (June): -0.4% m/m vs -0.9% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from 0.1%)

  • Orders were very volatile on a monthly basis and also volatile across sectors over the past months.
  • Domestic orders were up by 1.1% m/m while foreign orders were down by 1.4% m/m (opposite performances seen the prior month).
  • The picture was also mixed by sector, with high volatility from the prior month: rise of orders in intermediate goods (1.2% m/m), in consumer goods (1.7% m/m) but a fall in capital goods (-1.8% m/m).
  • Separately, factory sales were up by 3% m/m after 3.5% m/m the prior month; all sectors have shown positive sales except durable consumer goods over the month.


UK: The BoE has increased key rates from 1.25% to 1.75%.

  • As expected, the bank has accelerated the pace of its tightening in rates; the door remains open for another 50 or 25 bp rate adjustment in next September meeting, being inflation-data dependent.
  • The Bank was highly worried by inflation, expected to peak at 13% y/y in Q4 and to settle at a still high 5.5% y/y in Q4-23.
  • The Bank has warned about a coming recession. Q4-22 should see a GDP contraction and recession is expected to last the whole year 2023.
  • In Sept., the bank will probably begin to sell its bonds portfolio in addition with maturing existing bonds process under course as part of its QT.
  • In the race for next PM, debate has increased on bank independence as Ms Truss mentioned she wants to change the inflation mandate of the bank.
Mittwoch 03 August
Mixed signals from services indicators in the US; weakening sales and sentiment in services in the eurozone

US: Services PMI (July): 47.3 vs 47 expected (prior: 52.7)

  • Final data were slightly better than in the first estimates, but a large fall in confidence remained in place.
  • Sentiment has declined on output and expectations. New orders have slightly increased after lows in June, but only from domestic demand.
  • Employment remained positively oriented but on slower pace; rising costs and prices remained but also on a slower pace than in prior months.


US: ISM Non-manufacturing (July): 56.7 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 55.3)

  • Contrary to expectations and to the PMI services, sentiment has regained over the month.
  • The detailed picture is more constructive than for the PMI services, with rising sentiment on activity, new orders, export orders; opinions have declined on price pressures and have shown some normalization for backlog of orders and delivery.
  • Employment has regained but the index remained below 50.
  • ISM manufacturing and services have shown respectively a moderate decline and a slight rebound in each sector over the month; sentiment on prices have eased in both sectors and the index on employment was in both cases below 50.
  • Differences between PMI and ISM are related to size and export-oriented industries; the difference in monthly change could point towards a two-speed activity within services (better in large, gloomier in small and domestic-oriented firms).


UK: PMI Services (July): 52.6 vs 53.3 expected (prior: 54.3)

  • Final data were lower than the first estimates; uncertainty on future activity, rising interest rates and high inflation have weighed down on demand, with has lost some momentum. New business has weakened as well as exports.
  • Employment remained positive due to still existing shortage.
  • Costs and prices have increased further, but on a slower pace than past months.


Switzerland: CPI (July): 0% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Core inflation was down by 0.2% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
  • By sector, prices were sharply down on clothes, oil products, household goods and furniture, but on a strong monthly rise for restaurants-hotels.
  • Yearly trend on headline remained stable at 3.4% y/y, while it has slightly increased for core inflation, from 2.7% y/y the prior month to 2.8% y/y.


Eurozone: PMI Services (July): 51.2 vs 50.6 expected (prior: 53)

  • Final data were better than in the first estimates, notably for France and Spain. Index for Germany and Italy have passed below the 50 level over the month.
  • Momentum in demand has faded and high inflation has weighed down on domestic and foreign demand. Employment remained positive but on a slower pace; costs and selling prices have increased further but also at a slower pace compared to past months.


Eurozone: PPI (June): 1.1% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.7%)

  • Prices remained on a sustained pace over the month due to energy prices up by 2.7% m/m after -0.5% m/m the prior month.
  • Ex-energy prices were up by 0.4% m/m after 1.2% m/m the prior month. Prices remained on still sustained pace for consumer durable goods over the month on absolute terms, but the pace was slower than the prior month.
  • Yearly trend has declined for the second time, from 36.2% y/y the prior month to 35.8% y/y, and from 16% y/y to 15.6% y/y for ex-energy prices.


Eurozone: Retail sales (June): -1.2% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.2%)

  • Sales have contracted more than expected over the month; all sectors were down including food over the month. The fall was driven by industrialized goods and internet sales over the month.


Turkey: CPI (July): 2.37% m/m vs 2.61% expected (prior: 4.95%)

  • Inflation remained sustained over the month, even slower than the prior month.
  • Prices were still strongly up for main sectors, such as food-beverage, health, furniture and leisure.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 78.6% y/y the prior month to 79.6% y/y and core inflation from 57.3% y/y to 61.3% y/y.

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