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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
Title
Teaser
Donnerstag 08 Dezember
US initial jobless claims inched higher as expected

US: Initial jobless claims (Dec 3): 230k as expected (prior: 226k revised from 225k)

  • Claims often show volatility around the Thanksgiving holiday. The four-week moving average increased to 230k from 221k a month earlier and from a recent low of 206K in the end of September.
  • This is still well below the average between 2000 and 2019 of about 400k, which does not provide much evidence of a cooling labor market.

 

UK: RICS house price balance (Nov.): -25% vs -10% expected (prior: -2%)

  • In November, the UK saw the most widespread house price falls since May 2020.

 

 

 

Mittwoch 07 Dezember
Resilient German industrial production

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q3 F.): 0.8% q/q vs 0.6% expected (prior: -4.1%)

  • Unit labor costs: 2.4% q/q saar vs 3.1% expected (prior 6.7%)
  • Unit labor costs were revised down 1.1 percentage point (pp) and, encouragingly, grew at their slowest pace since Q1 2021.
  • Compensation per hour was revised down by 0.6pp to +3.2% in Q3, and the y/y rate was revised down 0.7pp to +4.0%.

 

Eurozone: GDP (Q3 F.): 0.3% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.8%)

  • GDP y/y: 2.3% vs 2.1% expected (prior: 4.2%)
  • This better-than-expected figures mainly reflect the resilience in household consumption, likely driven by the post-pandemic reopening, notably tourism.
  • However, GDP is likely to contract in Q4 amid very negative real wage growth.

 

Germany: Industrial production (Oct): -0.1% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 0.6%)

  • IP y/y: 0.0% vs -0.7% expected (prior: 3.1% revised from 2.6%)
  • German industrial production held up much better than expected in October, even after an upwardly revised gain in September.
  • Mild weather probably helped as a gain in construction output more than offset a drag from lower energy production while manufacturing was slightly down (-0.5% m/m).
  • This may lead to upward revisions to Q4 GDP estimates.

 

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Nov.): 2.0% vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.1%)

  • The non-seasonally adjusted rate inched higher to 2.0% from 1.9% in October and September.

 

Dienstag 06 Dezember
Wider US trade deficit in Oct.; a rebound in German orders thanks to foreign orders and capital goods

US: Trade balance (Oct.): -78.2 bn USD vs -80 bn expected (prior: -74.1 bn revised from -73.3 bn)

  • Deficit has increased further on weakening exports; exports were down by 0.7% m/m after 1.2% m/m the prior month; exports of consumer and industrial goods were down over the month; imports were up by 0.6% m/m after 1.6% m/m the prior month.
  • Trade deficit has also increased on ex petroleum data ( from USD -76.7 bn to -80.4 bn).

 

UK: BRC retail sales (Nov.): 4.1% y/y (prior: 1.2%)

  • Proxy for sales were better oriented, past data were less strongly correlated to broader retail sales which have turned negative in prior months.

 

Germany: Factory orders (Oct.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -2.9% revised from -4%)

  • Orders were better oriented than the prior month, but diverging trend was seen across sectors.
  • Orders have increased for capital goods, driven up by foreign orders reverting from the prior month. Orders for consumer and intermediate goods have declined over the month. Orders for consumer goods were highly volatile over the past months.
Montag 05 Dezember
Business sentiment in services: diverging trend between US PMI versus US ISM; modest decline in services in the eurozone

UK: Services PMI (Nov.): 48.8 as expected (prior: 48.8)

  • Final data confirmed sentiment remained depressed, below the 50 level. Demand remained weak due to high inflation and uncertainty on outlook.
  • Costs remained on the rise; employment remained slightly positive as some firms continue to look for skilled labor force, but some other firms have not replaced leavers or have frozen hirings.

 

US: Services PMI (Nov.): 46.2 vs 46.1 expected (prior: 47.8)

  • Sentiment has finally declined from the prior month and was close to first estimates.
  • Sentiment has weakened on new demand and exports; costs remained on the rise; employment was marginally positive over the month.

 

US: ISM Non-manufacturing (Nov.): 56.5 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 54.4)

  • Contrary to the consensus, the sentiment index has rebounded over the month and was back to its Sept. levels.
  • In details, there was some improvement in activity and employment while inventories were on the rise. Only new exports orders have dramatically declined over the month.
  • New orders and backlog of orders have slightly decreased over the month while prices paid remained stable.
  • It seems that some segments of activity were better oriented than expected but medium-term view remained cautious.

 

US: Factory orders (Oct.): 1% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.3%)

  • Orders have rebounded over the month; orders for capital goods non defense ex aircraft were up by 0.6% m/m after -0.7% m/m the prior month.
  • Shipments were up by 0.7% m/m after 0.3% m/m the prior month and inventories up by 0.5% m/m after 0.1% m/m.

 

Eurozone: PMI Services (Nov.): 48.5 vs 48.6 expected (prior: 48.6)

  • Business sentiment has finally marginally declined from the prior month, but situation has diverged across countries.
  • Sentiment has decreased more than initially estimated in France and Germany, while it has slightly increased in Spain and Italy over the month; in these two countries demand is expected to improve later in the year.
  • Costs and prices remained on the rise, but at a slower pace; employment was also on the rise, but at more moderate pace than in past months.

 

Eurozone: Retail sales (Oct.): -1.8% m/m vs -1.7% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.4%)

  • Sales were depressed and have reverted after some rebound the prior month. All sectors except motor oil were depressed over the month.

 

Turkey: CPI (Nov.): 2.88% m/m vs 3% expected (prior: 3.54%)

  • Monthly rises remained sustained particularly in food, transport-energy and furniture, even if the pace was slower than the prior month.
  • Thanks to base effects, yearly trend has declined from 70.45% y/y the prior month to 68.91% y/y.

 

Freitag 02 Dezember
US: stronger payrolls and higher wages growth than expected

US: Non-farm payrolls (Nov.): 263k vs 200k expected (prior: 284k revised from 261k)

  • Job creations were higher than expected and prior months data were revised: job creations in Oct.: from 261 k to 284 k; Sept.: from 315 k to 269 k.
  • Volatile trends across sectors in terms of job creations: on the positive side, creations have accelerated for construction (from 9 k to 20 k), and in some services: education-health (from 80 k to 82 k), and leisure-hospitality (from 60 k to 88 k); jobs were higher also in public sector (from 36 k to 42 k).
  • On the negative side, jobs were lower in manufacturing (from 36 k to 14 K) and, within services, in business services (from 26 k to 6 k; temporary work was down for another month), and in retail trade-transport (from 4 k to -49 k).
  • The unemployment ratio was quite stable over the month at 3.655% after 3.688% the prior month.
  • Wage growth has accelerated more than expected and prior month data were revised up strongly: +0.6% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior (initial estimates for Oct.: 0.4% m/m); the yearly trend has regained to 5.1% y/y from 4.9% y/y (initial estimate at 4.7% for Oct.).
  • Labor data could appear as a source of concerns for the Fed, more than inflation data which have eased recently. These data could reopen an internal debate in the FOMC about hiking by 50 or 75 bp in the next Dec. Meeting.

 

Eurozone: PPI (Oct.): -2.9% m/m vs -2% expected (prior: 1.6%)

  • Energy prices have declined by 6.9% m/m after 3.1% m/m the prior month; food and non-durable prices were up by 1.1% m/m after 0.9% m/m while prices in other sectors evolved in a 0.2/0.5% m/m monthly range.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 41.9% y/y the prior month to 30.8% y/y.

 

France: Industrial production (Oct.): -2.6% m/m (prior: -0.9% revised from -0.8%)

  • Production was heavily down due to a fall of activity in energy and electricity sectors over the month; auto production was also down by 5.8% m/m for the second month.

 

Germany: Trade Balance (Oct.): 6.9bn EUR vs 5.2bn expected (prior: 2.8bn revised from 3.7bn)

  • Trade surplus has regained on falling imports: -3.7% m/m after -2.2% m/m the prior month; nevertheless, exports have also declined by 0.6% m/m after -0.7% m/m the prior month. Only exports outside Europe were positive over the month.

 

Norway: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 1.6% vs 1.7% expected (prior: 1.6%)

  • Unemployed has declined further btu the ratio remained stable over the month.
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