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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Donnerstag 18 April
US: strong rebound in retail sales, but mixed business sentiment

US: Retail sales (March): 1.6% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Core sales: 1% m/m vs 0.4% m/m expected (-0.3% m/m the prior month).
  • Sales have strongly rebounded from low Feb. data in all major sectors. While trend remained high for gasoline, auto sales, furniture, clothes and food have strongly rebounded.
  • On average on Q1, consumption had been more sustained than expected, leading to a Q1 GDP probably not too far from  2% q/q (to be published next week).


US: Initial jobless claims (Apr.13): 192k vs 205k expected (prior: 197k revised from 196k)

  • Continuing claims: 1653 k after 1716 K.
  • Trend in labor remained very strong.


US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr.): 52.4 vs 52.8 expected (prior: 52.4)

  • According to flash estimate, a modest rise in sentiment on production and new orders, but a stable global index.


US: Markit Services PMI (Apr.): 52.9 vs 55 expected (prior: 55.3)

  • Contrary to manufacturing, confidence has surprisingly eased in services according to first estimate. The index has come back to the bottom of its 2018 range (52.9-56), being traditionally highly volatile. The index level is still in line with a 2%-2.5% growth scenario.


US: Philadelphia Fed. (Apr.): 8.5 vs 11 expected (prior: 13.7)

  • Sentiment on current and future activity has weakened. On a positive note, sentiment on new orders has increased on both current and future situation. Future capex has also strongly increased.


US: Business inventories (Feb.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)

  • Sales were moderate in Feb. (0.1% m/m), but the situation has improved in March.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Apr.): 47.8 vs 48 expected (prior: 47.5)

  • Sentiment has slightly increased, but less than expected in the flash estimate.
  • The rebound is modest in Germany, while sentiment has slightly eroded in France.
  • These data point towards a still fragile stabilization entering in Q2.


Eurozone: PMI Services (Apr.): 52.5 vs 53.1 expected (prior: 53.3)

  • Flash estimate has disappointed in services, but estimates for France and Germany have both increased from past month and were up more than expected; worries could come from peripherals, and particularly Italy.


Germany: PPI (March): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • Prices of electricity and gas have fallen after a large rebound in Jan.; the yearly trend in PPIs has moderated from 2.6% y/y to 2.4% y/y.


UK: Retail sales (March): 1.1% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.4%)

  • Sales of food, clothes and household goods have rebounded after mixed figures in Feb. (revised up). Separately, internet sales have rebounded after moderate trend in Jan.-Feb.
  • Retail sales were volatile but quite resilient in Q1 despite high political uncertainties; a strong labor market and moderate inflation have underpinned consumption trend.


Switzerland: Trade balance (Macrh): 3.18 Bn CHF (prior: 2.94Bn)

  • Real exports: 0.1% m/m; real imports: -3.2% m/m


Italy: Industrial orders (Feb.): -2.7% m/m (prior: 2.1% revised from 1.8%)

  • Industrial sales: 0.3% m/m after 3% m/m the prior month.
  • Foreign orders have sharply decreased, as well as foreign sales. After an improvement in Jan., trend in orders have deteriorated again in Feb. for all sectors except electronic and electric equipment.


Russia: Retail sales (March): 1.6% y/y as expected (prior: 2%)

  • Food and non-food sales have shown some moderation in their yearly trend.


Russia: Unemployment rate (March): 4.7% vs 4.9% expected (prior: 4.9%)

  • Unemployment has eased after a rebound in past quarter.


Russia: Real wages (March): 0% y/y vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0% revised from 0.7%)

  • Flat trend in real wages.
Mittwoch 17 April
US: improving export performances; UK inflation just below 2% y/y

US: Trade balance (Feb.): -49.4 bn USD vs -53.4 bn expected (prior: -51.1 bn)

  • Trade deficit has declined with improving export performances, up by 1.1% m/m (driven by capital goods and autos), while imports were just up by 0.2% m/m.


US: Wholesale inventories (Feb.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.2%)

  • Pace of growth in inventories has slowed down, particularly for durable goods; sales were up by 0.3% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior month.
  • The inventory-to-sales ratio was stable (1.35) after a rise seen in Dec.


UK: CPI (March): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Inflation stayed on a stable trend at 1.9% y/y as well as core inflation up by 1.8% y/y.
  • Inflation has stabilized just below BoE's target, fueling no change in rates in the near future.


UK: PPI Input prices (March): -0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1% revised from 0.6%)

  • Fuel prices have decreased after a rebound in past months; yearly trend has moderated from 4% y/y past month to 3.7% y/y.


UK: PPI Output prices (March): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.1%)

  • Core output prices were flat over the month; yearly trend remained stable at 2.4% for headline prices and 2.2% y/y for core prices.


Eurozone: CPI (March): 1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Energy prices and services have rebounded as expected; yearly trend remained moderate at 1.4% y/y and at 1% y/y for core inflation. Volatile oil prices and currency may bring yearly trend lower in the future months.
Dienstag 16 April
US: mixed industrial production data; rebuilding confidence in housing

US: Industrial production (March): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.1%)

  • Manufacturing production was flat over the month. Activity was highly volatile and some sectors have shown a large swing in activity from the prior month, particularly autos and utility. Activity was up by 0.2% m/m ex autos.


US: NAHB housing market index (Apr.): 63 as expected (prior: 62)

  • Prospects were slightly on the rise, particularly on future sales.


UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Feb.): 3.9% as expected (prior: 3.9%)

  • Jobless claims: 28.3 k after 26.7 k the prior month; claimants count: 3% after 2.9%.
  • Labor market remained quite resilient despite large political uncertainties.


UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Feb.): 3.5% y/y as expected (prior: 3.5% revised from 3.4%)

  • Trend remained solid for wage growth; the strongest and more sustained wage growth was in services, finance and construction.


Germany: Zew (Apr.): 3.1 vs 0.5 expected (prior: -3.6)

  • Sentiment among financial community has rebounded for the second month, and the index was back to positive.


Russia: PPI (March): 0.9% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Prices have rebounded in mining and also for utilities. PPIs were up by 10.9% y/y after 9% y/y the prior month.


Turkey: Industrial production (Feb.): 1.3% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1%)

  • Industrial activity has rebounded for the second month, driven by improving trend in production of energy and consumer goods.
Montag 15 April
US: business confidence on the rise, but mixed details

US: Empire manufacturing (Apr.): 10.1 vs 8 expected (prior: 3.7)

  • Index has rebounded from low level, but it has turned highly volatile since the beginning of the year. New orders and shipments have rebounded, but also inventories and number of employees has decreased.
  • Expectations have eased on decreasing new orders and shipments. More positively, capex intentions have just moderated but remained at a high level as well as spending on IT.


Switzerland: PPI-import prices (March): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Yearly trend came less negative: from -0.7% y/y the prior month to -0.2% y/y. Import prices were up by 0.5% m/m and yearly trend has turned back positive to 0.5% y/y. Prices of oil and clothes have strongly rebounded on April.


Sweden: Unemployment rate (March): 3.6% (prior: 3.7%)

  • Downward trend remained in place.


Poland: CPI (March): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Final data confirmed estimates, with a rebound in prices of clothes; yearly trend has increased from 1.2% y/y to 1.7% y/y.


Turkey: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 14.7% vs 14.6% expected (prior: 13.5%)

  • Numbers of unemployed workers continued to rapidly increase. The ratio has increased to the high levels seen in 2010.
Freitag 12 April
US household more cautious; less negative trend in the eurozone industrial production

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (April): 96.9 vs 98.2 expected (prior: 98.4)

  • First estimate has pointed towards lower sentiment, but with two different trends: sentiment on current conditions has increased, while expectations have decreased, but remained at a higher level than in Jan.-Feb.
  • Sentiment has eroded on finance (fading effects of past reforms), personal debt and on future activity; views on future purchases were mixed, remaining positive for major items but turning more cautious on housing.
  • Inflation expectations have slightly moderated: from 2.5% to 2.4% y/y at 1 year, and from 2.5% y/y to 2.3% y/y at 5 year.


Eurozone: Industrial production (Feb.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.9% revised from 1.4%)

  • Production was less negative than expected and past month data were revised up significantly. Energy sector has shown large swings in Jan.-Feb., but the activity has also contracted in the other sectors, but at a lesser extent than in energy.
  • The yearly trend was less negative than past month (-0.3% y/y after -0.7% y/y the prior month), and some sectors have already returned into a positive trend (consumer and capital goods).


Spain: CPI (March): 1.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Headline inflation has rebounded from 1.1%y/y to % y/y. Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m, and up by 0.7% y/y.


Poland: Current account (Feb.): -1386Mio EUR vs -400Mio expected (prior: 1825Mio revised from 2316Mio)

  • Falling exports has increased the trade deficit.
Macro economic

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Analysen 11.04.2019

Look for global growth concerns to fade

Spotlight - Signs of a reduction in current worries about recession or in the downside risks to today’s modest earnings expectations are needed as a catalyst to support the next sustainable leg of equity market returns.