US: Durable goods orders (April): -17.2% m/m vs -19% expected (prior: -16.6% revised from -14.7%)
- Orders have sharply fallen in all categories and were particularly depressed in transport.
- Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft were down by 5.8% m/m after -1.1% m/m the prior month.
- Trade tensions and disruption in the supply chain could delay recovery in orders after the end of the lockdown and despite improving sentiment in industry.
US: Initial jobless claims (May 23): 2123k vs 2100k expected (prior: 2446k revised from 2438k)
- Continuing claims: 21052 k after 24912 k past week.
US: GDP (Q1-20): -5% q/q vs -4.8% expected (prior: 2.1%)
- No major changes in GDP growth estimates, except a larger fall in inventories than estimated previously leading to more negative contribution (from -0.53 pp to -1.43 pp) to Q1 GDP.
- This has been mitigated by less negative fall in consumption (from -7.6 %q/q to -6.8% q/q), total investment (except sharper fall in equipment); net exports remained negative (-1.32 pp contribution to Q1 GDP).
- A larger fall is expected for Q2, but Q2 GDP data will not be published before end of July.
US: Pending home sales (April): -21.8% m/m vs -17.3% expected (prior: -20.8%)
- Sales have sharply fallen for the second month in all major districts; sales were down by 34.6% y/y after -14.5% y/y the previous month.
Eurozone: Industrial confidence (May): -27.5 vs -26.5 expected (prior: -32.5 revised from -30.4)
- Business sentiment has slightly improved on future production and inventories, while opinions have deteriorated further on orders and exports, stayed very low on unemployment.
Eurozone: Service confidence (May): -43.6 vs -27.9 expected (prior: -38.6 revised from -35)
- Sentiment has heavily deteriorated on current situation, while opinions on future demand and employment have slightly regained.
Eurozone: Consumer confidence (May): -18.8 as expected (prior: -22)
- Opinions were slightly less negative on future personal financial situation and economic environment, but the opinions stayed depressed on past/current situation.
Eurozone: CPI (May): 0% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.4%)
- Final data confirmed the decline in headline inflation from 0.8% y/y to 0.5% y/y.
Italy: PPI (May): -3.4% m/m (prior: -1.3%)
- The monthly fall was driven by lower energy prices (-11% m/m), while prices were mixed/weak in other sectors.
- PPIs have declined further from -4.9% y/y to -6.7% y/y.
Spain: CPI (May): 0% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.4%)
- Headline inflation has declined further from -0.7% y/y the prior month to -0.9% y/y, due to lower energy prices.
Spain: Retail sales (real) (April): -31.6% y/y (prior: -14.2% revised from -14.1%)
- A drastic fall of sales in all sectors, including a modest fall in food too.
Poland: Central banks has cut key rates from 0.50% to 0.10%
- The economy will face a severe recession in 2020, and central bank has pledged in favor of a "whatever it takes" approach to support the activity.
Brazil: Unemployment rate (April): 12.6% vs 13.3% expected (prior: 12.2%)
Brazil: CPI (May): 0.28% m/m vs 0.14% expected (prior: 0.80%)
- Global inflation index (consumer, producer and construction prices) has shown some moderation from the prior month.
- At consumer level, prices have sharply declined (-0.6% m/m after 0.13% m/m the prior month), due to lower energy-transport prices; consumer prices have passed below 2% in yearly trend (from 2.63% y/y the prior month to 1.65% y/y).
Sweden: Consumer confidence (May): 77.3 (prior: 74.2 revised from 73.9)
- Sentiment has improved on future financial situation, while concerns remained on global economic situation and unemployment.
Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (May): 76.8 (prior: 71.4 revised from 70.5)
- Business confidence has bounced back from very depressed levels.
Sweden: Retail sales (April): 0.2% m/m vs -2.1% expected (prior: -1.5% revised from -1.7%)
- Sales have stabilized after the large fall seen in the previous month; sales were down by 1.3% y/y after 1.1% y/y the prior month.