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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Donnerstag 13 August
US: better than expected weekly jobless claims

US: Initial jobless claims (Aug.8): 963k vs 1100k expected (prior: 1191k revised from 1186k)

  • Continuing claims: 15 486 k after 16 090 k the prior week.
  • Jobless claims have improved further and passed below 1 million.
  • After fears of a renewed deterioration in July, labor trend has regained and data have improved on parallel with latest non-farm payrolls.


US: Import price index (July): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1.4%)

  • Prices of imported goods remained on sustained trend, particularly oil (7.8% m/m) and industrial supplies (3.1% m/m).
  • Export prices were up by 0.8% m/m (1.2% m/m the prior month).
  • Import prices were less negative on a yearly basis (from -3.9% y/y the prior month to -3.3% y/y).


UK: RICS house price balance (July): 12% vs -5% expected (prior: -13% revised from -15%)

  • Sentiment has sharply rebounded on prices and future sales.
  • The index was back to the range seen in Q1-20


France: Unemployment rate (Q2-20): 7.1% vs 8.3% expected (prior: 7.8%)

  • Supports to labor have maintained unemployment at a low level but the unemployment ratio is expected to rise in H2-20 despite ongoing public supports with labor force adjustments in corporates.


Germany: CPI (July): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Cuts in VAT tax has led to global decline in prices in all sectors; yearly trend declined from 0.8% y/y the prior month to 0% y/y. Core inflation was down by 0.5% m/m and declined from 1.3% y/y the prior month to 0.7% y/y.


Spain: CPI (July): -1.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • While energy-transport prices were up over the month, prices of food, clothes (-20% m/m), hotels-leisure and communication were down over the month.
  • Headline inflation has declined further, from -0.3% y/y the prior month to -0.7% y/y. Core inflation has eased from 1% y/y the prior month to 0.6% y/y.
Mittwoch 12 August
US: earlier than expected normalization in inflation pattern

US: CPI (July): 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • A larger than expected rebound in inflation due to energy and services over the month.
  • Energy prices were up by 2.5% m/m (motor fuel up by 5.5% m/m), apparel prices up by 1.1% m/m (2.3% m/m on used cars), services were up by 0.6% m/m, fueled by medical care (0.5% m/m) and communication (1.1% m/m). Food prices were down by 0.4% m/m.
  • Yearly trend has rebounded on headline index from 0.6% y/y the prior month to 1% y/y, and core inflation from 1.2% y/y to 1.6% y/y.
  • This represents a normalization in the inflation pattern earlier than expected (with parallel normalization in inflation expectations), due to reversal in food and energy prices from the trend seen during the lockdown, and a larger but temporary rebound in some sectors with the reopening of the economy.
  • The decline in inflation has favored purchasing power in Q2, which is no longer the case.
  • These data should comfort the Fed to adopt rapidly an “average inflation” target in its forward guidance policy on rates.


UK: GDP (Q2-20): -20.4% q/q vs -20.7% expected (prior: -2.2%)

  • A large fall in all GDP components with the lockdown in place; consumption was down by 23% q/q, investment down by 25% q/q and trade (exports and imports) has fallen in parallel. Public consumption has also fallen by 14% q/q during the period.
  • Separately, monthly proxy of GDP has pointed to progressive recovery (2.4% m/m in May, 8.7% m/m in June), thanks to rebound in domestic demand and in industrial activity with the end of the lockdown.


Sweden: CPI (July): 0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Food, transport-energy and leisure prices have rebounded over the month.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 0.7% y/y the prior month to 0.5% y/y; core inflation has regained from 1.3% y/y the prior month to 1.5% y/y.


Eurozone: Industrial production (June): 9.1% m/m vs 10% expected (prior: 12.3% revised from 12.4%)

  • The rebound in activity has continued with the end of the lockdown and all sectors have shown a rebound in production, even at a slower pace than in May. The rebound was the most pronounced in sectors hit by the lockdown.
  • The total index stayed 13% below its pre-COVID level.


Brazil: Retail sales (June): 12.6% m/m vs 6.7% expected (prior: 19.2% revised from 19.6%)

  • The rebound in consumption continued in June, driven by all sectors except food. Largest rebound was seen in clothes and leisure goods.
  • On a yearly basis, sales were up by 0.5% y/y from -6.4% y/y the prior month.
Dienstag 11 August
US: weakening sentiment among small-medium sized firms and firmer PPI due to energy prices

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (July): 98.8 vs 100.5 expected (prior: 100.6)

  • After a rebound in the past 3 months, sentiment has weakened on future economic situation, future higher sales and on opportunities to expand.
  • Plan to hire people has modestly increased from past month.
  • Despite a rebound over past 4 months, the total index remained well below its Feb. level.


US: PPI (July): 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Energy prices were up by 5.3% m/m and trade services up by 0.8% m/m; core PPIs were up by 0.3% m/m, same pace as the prior month.
  • Yearly trend has turned less negative, from -0.8% y/y the prior month to -0.4% y/y. Core PPI ex trade costs have rebounded from -0.1% y/y to 0.1% y/y.
  • Energy prices and trade services were responsible for the rebound in prices, pointing to rising costs and some pressure on corporate margins.


UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (July): 3.9% vs 4.2% expected (prior: 3.9%)

  • Claimant count rate: 7.5% after 7.2% the prior month (revised down from 7.3%). Employment has declined by 220 k over the past three months.
  • Jobless claims have increased by 94.4 k over the month after a decline by 68.5 k (-28.5 k previous estimate).
  • After some improvement in June, negative trend has come back with strong rise in jobless claims.
  • The unemployment rate is expected to rebound sharply in H2 if public measures on labor and wage end next October.


UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (June): -1.2% y/y vs -1.1% expected (prior: -0.3%)

  • Wages were down in all sectors except the public sector. Furloughed workers have benefited from public support on wages to compensate the loss in income.


UK: BRC retail sales (July): 4.3% y/y (prior: 10.9%)

  • Non-food sales remained on a sustained trend over the past two months.


Sweden: Unemployment rate (July): 5.7% (prior: 5.3%)

  • Unemployment rate is on a rising trend since Feb. (4%).


Germany: Zew (Aug.): 71.5 vs 55.8 expected (prior: 59.3)

  • While sentiment on current situation has deteriorated, expectations have rebounded further among financial community.


Montag 10 August
US: strong June job openings

US: JOLTS Job Openings (June): 5889 vs 5300 expected (prior: 5397)

  • Job openings were strong in June and hirings also sustained (even lower than in May) with reopening of the economy.
  • Openings and hirings were particularly strong in services. In parallel, separations and quitters ratios have increased from May to June.


Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (July): 3.3% vs 3.4% expected (prior: 3.3%)

  • Unemployed has slightly increased over the month, notably long-term unemployed, but the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stayed stable.


Sweden: Retail sales (June): 2.9% m/m (prior: 2% revised from 1.2%)

  • Yearly trend has turned less negative from -9.2% y/y the prior month to -58% y/y.


Norway: CPI (July): 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Prices of food, household goods and transport have strongly rebounded over the month; core inflation was up by 0.9% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month.
  • Yearly trend stayed quite stable (1.3% y/y after 1.4% y/y the prior month), while core inflation has gained from 3.1% y/y to 3.5% y/y.


France: Business sentiment (Bank of France) (July): 99 vs 92 expected (prior: 89)

  • Sentiment has regained further on production and orders. Absolute level of orders remained depressed.
  • Separately, sentiment has improved on in parallel in services, while it has stagnated in construction.


Turkey: Unemployment rate (May): 12.9% (prior: 12.8%)

  • Unemployed has slightly increased over the month and trend remained up; the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has increased from 13.8% the prior month to 14%.
Freitag 07 August
Stronger than expected US non-farm payrolls

US: Non-farm payrolls (July): 1800k vs 1480k expected (prior: 4800k)

  • Unemployment rate has fallen from 11.1% to 10.2% (10.6% expected)
  • Better than expected job creations, even lower than the past month.
  • Creations were still strong in services (1423 k after 4222 k prior month): leisure-hospitality (592 k), public sector (301 k), retail (258 k). Creations were modest but positive on construction and manufacturing (20-26 k range).
  • Alternative measures on unemployment rates have decreased: U6 from 18% to 16.5%.
  • Hours worked were quite stable (34.5 after 34.6); wage growth remained on a 4.8% y/y trend.
  • Finally, the "strong numbers" mentioned by Trump, which is positive for the underlying economic recovery but less so for ongoing fiscal negotiations at Congress.


Germany: Trade Balance (June): 15.6bn EUR vs 11.3bn expected (prior: 7bn revised from 7.1bn)

  • Current account: EUR 22.4 bn after 7 bn the prior month.
  • Exports: 14.9% m/m after 8.9% m/m the prior month; imports: 7% m/m after 3.6% m/m the prior month.
  • Export growth is gaining more traction, refueling orders in industry.


Germany: Industrial production (June): 8.9% m/m vs 8.2% expected (prior: 7.4% revised from 7.8%)

  • A second month of a strong rebound in production of capital goods. Rebound has accelerated in the other sectors, notably the consumer goods.
  • Total production index remained well below its March-Feb level.


France: Industrial production (June): 12.7% m/m vs 8.4% expected (prior: 19.9% revised from 19.6%)

  • Manufacturing production was up by 14.4% m/m after 22.2% m/m the prior month.
  • The rebound was once again driven by auto and also by activity in refinery over the past two months.


Spain: Industrial production (June): 14% m/m vs 10% expected (prior: 14.3% revised from 14.7%)

  • A second month of strong recovery in industrial activity; the rebound was mainly driven by capital goods and the auto sector, but production momentum was also sustained in the other sectors.
  • Total index of production was higher than its March level, but below the Feb. level.


Norway: Industrial production (June): -2.2% m/m (prior: -0.9% revised from -1%)

  • Manufacturing production was up by 0.4% m/m after -3% m/m the prior month.
  • Only chemical and ships-oil platforms sectors have shown growth in production over the month.


Brazil: CPI (July): 0.36% m/m vs 0.35% expected (prior: 0.26%)

  • Trend has slightly accelerated from 2.13% y/y the prior month to 2.31% y/y.
  • Prices of transport, housing and energy have rebounded over the month.


Macro economic

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Analysen 31.07.2020

COVID-19: Die UBP hält Sie auf dem Laufenden

Seit dem Ausbruch des Coronavirus begleiten und unterstützen wir unsere Kunden während dieser ungewöhnlichen Zeit einer weltweiten Gesundheitskrise. Die Bank informiert Sie regelmässig über die Anpassungen ihrer Massnahmen an die von den Gesundheitsbehörden vorgegebenen Vorsichtsregeln. Ausserdem kommen unsere Experten zu Wort, welche auf die Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf die Weltwirtschaft und die Finanzmärkte eingehen.