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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Donnerstag 27 Januar
US Q3 GDP higher than expected, thanks to rebuilding inventories
  • US: Initial jobless claims (Jan.22): 260k vs 265k expected (prior: 290k revised from 286k)
  • Continuing claims: 1675 k after 1624 k the prior week.


  • US: Durable goods orders (Dec.): -0.9% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: 3.2% revised from 2.6%)
  • Data were highly volatile due to orders for non-defense aircrafts down by 14.4% m/m after 42% m/m the prior month.
  • Orders for capital goods non-defense and ex aircraft (core orders) were flat over the month after 0.3% m/m the prior month; by sectors, orders were globally weak except for metals.
  • Shipments were up by 0.8% m/m, same pace as the prior month, and up by 0.6% m/m for core orders after 0.4% m/m. A higher demand for machinery goods and autos.
  • Inventories were up by 0.7% m/m after 0.8% m/m the prior month, up by 0.7 % m/m for core orders.


  • US: GDP (Q4-21): 6.9% q/q vs 5.5% expected (prior: 2.3%)
  • Activity has rebounded in Q4 thanks to consumption and a large rebound in inventories from Q3.
  • Consumption was up by 3.3% q/q (after 2% in Q3), thanks to a rebound in durable goods and positive trend growth in services.
  • Investment was mixed over the quarter: structure and residential investment were both in decline, while equipment was up by 0.8% q/q and R&D up by 10.6% q/q.
  • Inventories have strongly rebounded over the quarter, reversing previous contraction; this rebound has added 4.9 bp to the GDP change, after 2.2 bp the prior quarter.
  • Exports have also strongly rebounded (up by 24.5% q/q after -5.3% in Q3), but imports were also strong (up by 17.7% after 4.7% q/q in Q3); thus, net export contribution to GDP was flat over the quarter.
  • A weaker GDP growth is expected in Q1, due to some impact of omicron on consumption (services), but a better trend in consumption and capex is expected thereafter.


  • US: Pending home sales (Dec.): -3.8% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: -2.3% revised from -2.2%)
  • Sales have declined at year end due to limited supply and some rises in mortgage rates. The fall was seen in all districts, but with a large range of -10%/ -1.2% m/m according to the regions.


  • Switzerland: Trade balance (Dec.): 3.69 Bn CHF (prior: 6.1Bn)
  • Trade surplus has weakened on declining export performances: real exports down by 3.2% m/m (1.6% m/m the prior month); real imports down by 0.8% m/m after 4.4% m/m the prior month.


  • Norway: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 3.5% vs 3.6% expected (prior: 3.6%)
  • The unemployment rate was back to the levels seen in 2019.


  • Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Feb.): -6.7 vs -8 expected (prior: -6.9 revised from -6.8)
  • First estimates for consumer confidence have pointed to slight improvement versus expectations of sharp deterioration.
  • The index deteriorated the prior month on rising inflation, while opinions were more positive on future economic situation.


  • Spain: Unemployment rate (Q4-21): 13.33% vs 14.2% expected (prior: 14.57%)
  • The unemployment rate has significantly declined over the quarter and passed just below the levels seen in 2019.
Mittwoch 26 Januar
Rising US new home sales; French consumer confidence marginally lower

US: Wholesale inventories (Dec.): 2.1% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: 1.7% revised from 1.4%)

  • Inventories have strongly rebounded at year end; in the auto sector, inventories were up by 6.8% m/m, and up by 4.4% m/m in the retail sector.


US: New home sales (Dec.): 811k vs 760k expected (prior: 725k revised from 744k)

  • Demand has accelerated at year end and sales were firmer, after downward revisions to prior month data.
  • Ratio of inventories have decreased with higher sales. Monthly changes in prices of houses sold have decreased from the prior month, but the yearly trend remained positive: 3.4% y/y on median prices and 13.8% y/y on mean prices.


France: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 99 as expected (prior: 100)

  • Consumer confidence has just marginally eased from the prior month.
  • Past rise in inflation and slightly lower future purchases have driven the index marginally lower over the month.
  • The index remained in a high range compared to the 2018-19 levels, and well above the 2020 level.


Poland: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 5.4% as expected (prior: 5.4%)

  • Unemployment rate stayed stable over the month, but unemployed has slightly decreased from the prior month.
  • The pace of the decline in unemployed has eased over the month compared to changes in past months.
Dienstag 25 Januar
Higher German IFO index; decreasing US consumer confidence (Conf. Board index)

US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (Nov.): 18.29% y/y vs 18% expected (prior: 18.46% revised from 18.41%)

  • Prices have increased by 1.18% m/m after 0.96% m/m the prior month; the monthly rise was sustained in all regions, with major cities showing a range of monthly rises in a 0.65%-2% m/m range.
  • Yearly trend has slightly moderated but remained above expectations.


US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Jan.): 113.8 vs 111.2 expected (prior: 115.2 revised from 115.8)

  • Consumer confidence has eased less than expected from the prior month.
  • Views on current situation have regained from the prior month, but expectations have weakened, and its index is at moderate level (same as in Nov.-Oct.21).
  • Sentiment on labor has slightly weakened from the prior month; on present conditions, views were positive on economic situation, but labor is expected to normalize.
  • Future views have pointed towards a normalization in economic activity, labor and income, explaining lack of enthusiasm on 6-month views.
  • Willingness to purchase large items have slightly increased from the prior month.


Germany: IFO (Jan.): 95.7 vs 94.5 expected (prior: 94.8 revised from 94.7)

  • As seen in flash PMI, business sentiment has increased in Germany from the prior month.
  • While sentiment on current situation has declined (from 96.9 to 96.1: its May 2021 level), expectations have regained (from 92.7 to 95.2; its last Oct. level).
  • By sector, sentiment has improved in manufacturing sector (PMI has pointed to lower constraints in auto production) and it has increased in services thanks to improving views in construction and less negative news in retail sector.
  • The index is pointing to a firmer outlook after weak start on growth, but some clouds (virus, high energy inflation) remained in place.


Spain: PPI (Dec.): 3.8% m/m (prior: 1.3% revised from 1.8%)

  • Prices have accelerated due to rising energy, electricity and gas prices and also rising intermediary good prices.
  • The yearly trend has accelerated further from 32.2 % y/y to 35.9% y/y.


Turkey: Industrial confidence (Jan.): 111.9 (prior: 110.1)

  • Business sentiment has increased from the prior month, thanks to rising new orders, capex and opinions on future business situation; details were mixed as views on production and employment have declined over the month.
  • Nevertheless, the index was close to its high levels (top at 113).
Montag 24 Januar
Broad weakening of sentiment in services; business confidence in manufacturing mixed across countries


US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan.): 55 vs 56.7 expected (prior: 57.7)

  • Sentiment has declined in manufacturing from the prior month; despite some easing in input costs and on the production supply, new demand and new orders have eased due to rising prices and soft rebuilding on inventories and production. If some constraints have eased, they globally remained in place in the production chain.
  • Employment has declined for the first time in several months, due to higher turnover and non-replacement of rising leavers.
  • Some easing was seen in cost pressure.


US: Markit Services PMI (Jan.): 50.9 vs 55.4 expected (prior: 57.6)

  • Sentiment has fallen significantly, and index pointed to flat growth in the sector. Confidence on new demand has declined due to omicron and after rising prices. New business has increased, mainly form foreign demand.
  • While input costs were lower, prices remained on the rise due to rising supplier prices and wages; employment remained on the rise to ease constraints on activity.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Jan.): 59 vs 57.5 expected (prior: 58)

  • Sentiment in the manufacturing sector has increased from the prior month according to the flash PMI.
  • Some easing in production constraints and on delivery were seen across sectors and mainly in the auto sector.
  • Employment remained on the rise, while prices remained at high level; some easing was seen for input costs and prices seem peaking in the manufacturing sector.
  • Germany has benefited the most from this improvement as the German flash PMI rebounded from 57.4 in Dec. to 60.5 in Jan., while sentiment has eased in France (from 55.6 to 55.5).


Eurozone: PMI Services (Jan.): 51.2 vs 52 expected (prior: 53.1)

  • Sentiment has declined further in the service sector according to the flash PMI.
  • Omicron and related effects (absence of staff) have weighed on some service activity such as leisure, transport, and media. Restrictions and illness or self-isolation in staff have globally weighed on present and future activity. In terms of costs, energy and rising wages have fueled further rises in prices.
  • The situation looked contrasted by country, as the index has rebounded in Germany (from 48.7 to 52.2), while it has declined in France (from 55.8 to 52.7) and it is expected to also decline in countries facing restrictions.


UK: PMI Manufacturing (Jan.): 56.9 vs 57.6 expected (prior: 57.9)

  • Sentiment has declined from the prior month, but underlying situation has improved; production was boosted with some release of constraints on materials available and rising orders, but staff absence and capacity constraints have limited the rebound in activity and new demand has weakened due to omicron and rising prices.
  • Employment was on the rise and some input costs have eased at year end.


UK: PMI Services (Jan.): 53.3 vs 54 expected (prior: 53.6)

  • Sentiment has declined in services and notably in hospitality, leisure and travel sectors, while activity remained sustained in other sectors. Demand remained subdued due to pandemic restrictions. New business was better oriented thanks to prospect of an improving situation on the virus and the end of restrictions in the near future.
  • Costs remained on the rise due to energy, input prices and rising wages.


Poland: Retail sales (Dec.): 14.9% m/m vs 17.2% expected (prior: -1%)

  • Sales have strongly rebounded at year-end; except purchases of fuels, sales in other sectors have strongly increased over the month, including auto, food, pharma, household goods and clothes.
Freitag 21 Januar
Weakening consumer confidence in the UK and the eurozone

UK: GFK consumer confidence (Jan.): -19 vs -15 expected (prior: -15)

  • Consumer confidence has declined from the prior month due to deteriorating opinions on personal financial situation and about the economic outlook (past and future situation).


UK: Retail sales (Dec.): -3.7% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: 1% revised from 1.4%)

  • Despite lower restrictions, sales have been largely hit by omicron concerns, in addition to higher prices.
  • All sectors have been impacted and have contracted during the month, led by lower transport and fuel used with work at home back.
  • Internet sales were favored the prior month but have moderated in value terms in Dec. from Nov., pointing to a globally weak consumption.


Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Jan.): -8.5 vs -9 expected (prior: -8.4 revised from -8.3)

  • Preliminary data have shown more limited than expected decline in confidence from the prior month. Uncertainties on virus and high inflation have weighed down on purchases and confidence.
  • Confidence index is back just below its 2018-19 levels.


Switzerland: M3 (Dec.): 1.7% y/y (prior: 1.9%)

  • Monetary aggregates have shown a moderating growth pace over the past month; M1 remained on a quite stable trend (4.7% y/y), while M2 has moderated (1.6% y/y after 2% y/y the prior month9 as M3.


Poland: Industrial production (Dec.): -2.9% m/m vs -6.3% expected (prior: 5.3%)

  • Activity has contracted less than feared at year-end; but production in manufacturing was down by 5.2% m/m after 4.7% m/m the prior month and production of electricity and gas was up by 17% m/m after 14% m/m the prior month.


Turkey: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 73.2 (prior: 68.9)

  • Confidence has rebounded from low levels reached in Dec.
  • Sentiment has improved on personal financial situation, future economic outlook and major purchases.

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Analysen 18.01.2022

Positive outlook and improving fundamentals

Macro and micro conditions in 2022 should be positive for credit markets, says Mohammed Kazmi, Portfolio Manager and Macro Strategist, in this podcast with Bernard McGrath, Senior Investment Specialist.