1. Investment-Expertise
  2. Markteinblicke

Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Freitag 30 Oktober
Eurozone: stronger than expected GDP growth in Q3

US: Personal income (Sept.): 0.9% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -2.5% revised from -2.7%)

  • Wages were up by 0.8% m/m and disposable income was also up by 0.9 % m/m after -2.9% m/m the prior month.
  • Resuming activity, labor and some support to income have underpinned disposable income.


US: Personal spending (Sept.): 1.4% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 1%)

  • Spending was sustained for durable goods while they slowed down for services over the month.
  • Saving ratio has eased from 14.8% the previous month to 14.3%.


US: Chicago PMI (Oct.): 61.1 vs 58 expected (prior: 62.4)

  • Business sentiment has eased less than expected over the month and the index remained at a high level.
  • Sentiment on new orders has increased but views on production, backlog of orders and employment has eased from the prior month.


US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Oct.): 81.8 vs 81.2 expected (prior: 80.4)

  • Sentiment has improved from the prior month; sentiment on current conditions has finally eased less than expected, while expectations have increased further.
  • Opinions have improved on personal financial situation, and consumers were less worried on employment and interest rates; expectations on future economic conditions have increased further.
  • Willingness to buy has increased further for houses but eased on autos.


Eurozone: GDP (Q3-20): 12.7% q/q vs 9.6% expected (prior: -11.8%)

  • The rebound was stronger than expected over the quarter, benefiting from the end of the first lockdown.
  • The four major euro economies have all rebounded more than expected in Q3; with renewed restrictions in several countries a mild recession is expected in Q4 (GDP to be down by 1% q/q).


Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 8.3% vs 8.2% expected (prior: 8.3% revised from 8.1%)

  • The unemployment ratio is on a rising trend since Q2; this trend should continue, and a peak could be reached in Q1-21.


Eurozone: CPI estimate (Oct.): -0.3% y/y as expected (prior: -0.3%)

  • Flash estimate has pointed towards ongoing negative inflation, mainly due to falling energy prices.
  • Over the month, prices were up by 0.2% m/m due a modest rebound energy, food and industrialized goods but prices of services have continued to fall.
  • Core inflation was up by 0.2 % m/m and stayed also stable on a yearly basis at 0.2% y/y.
  • Ms Lagarde mentioned the euro area did not enter a deflation, but persisting low inflation is a challenge for the monetary policy and its long-term target on inflation.


France: GDP (Q3-20): 18.2% q/q vs 15% expected (prior: -13.7% revised from -13.8%)

  • A broad-based rebound in Q3; consumption was up by 17% q/q and total investment by 23.3% q/q; public consumption was also up by 15.4% q/q; export and imports have also rebounded, and net export contribution to growth was positive, adding 1.2 pp.
  • Inventories have decreased, leading to a -1.8 pp contribution to GDP over the quarter.
  • Unfortunately, renewed lockdown will depress further activity and -2% q/q contraction is expected in Q4.


France: Consumer spending (Sept.): -5.1% m/m vs -1.4% expected (prior: 2.2% revised from 2.3%)

  • Sales have sharply decreased after past months rebound; the fall was broad-based across sectors, and more particularly pronounced in textile after summer discounts.
  • Another large fall should be seen in Nov., related to renewed lockdown.


France: CPI (Oct.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.6%)

  • Prices of services were down by 0.4% m/m, a second month of fall according to this first estimate. Prices of food (fresh food up by 1.8(% m/m) and manufactured goods (0.3% m/m) were up over the month.
  • Yearly trend remained unchanged at 0% y/y.


Germany: GDP (Q3-20): 8.2% q/q vs 7.3% expected (prior: -9.7%)

  • No detail available yet, but domestic demand should have underpinned the rebound.


Germany: Retail sales (Sept.): -2.2% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: 1.8% revised from 3.1%)

  • After two months rebound, sales were down over the month; the fall was broad- based across sectors, as seen in France.
  • These data could point towards still fragile and volatile consumption ahead of new restrictions, given consumption has supported the Q3 rebound in all developed countries.


Italy: GDP (Q3-20): 16.1% q/q vs 11.1% expected (prior: -13% revised from -12.8%)

  • A more pronounced rebound than expected, no details available.


Italy: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 9.6% vs 10.1% expected (prior: 9.7%)

  • A second month of fall in unemployed, contrary to expectations.


Italy: CPI (Oct.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 1%)

  • A strong rebound in prices of clothes, and also some rises in food and utility; transport and energy costs have declined.
  • Yearly trend was less negative, from -1% y/y the prior month to -0.6% y/y.


Spain: GDP (Q3-20): 16.7% q/q vs 13.5% expected (prior: -17.8%)

  • A stronger than expected rebound in the economy, driven a firmer recovery of both consumption and investment during the quarter.


Switzerland: KOF (Oct.): 106.6 vs 108 expected (prior: 110.1 revised from 113.8)

  • After a strong rebound over the past two months, sentiment has been revised down the prior month and eased in Oct. It remained at a high level. Activity should be impacted by slower growth in the eurozone in Q4 and renewed restrictions.


UK: Nationwide house prices (Oct.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.9%)

  • Prices remained on a strong rising trend; yearly trend has accelerated from 5% y/y the prior month to 5.8% y/y.


Brazil: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 14.4% vs 14.2% expected (prior: 13.8%)

  • The unemployment rate remained on a rising trend.
Donnerstag 29 Oktober
US: sharp rebound in Q3 GDP; rising expectations of a large ECB’s easing in Dec.

US: Initial jobless claims (Oct.24): 751k vs 770k expected (prior: 787k)

  • Continuing claims: 7756 k after 8373 k the prior week.


US: GDP (Q3-20): 33.1% q/q vs 32% expected (prior: -31.4%)

  • A sustained rebound, even firmer than expected, driven by consumption, equipment spending and residential.
  • Consumption was up by a strong 40.7% q/q saar; it was sustained in all segments and particularly strong for durable goods (82% q/q).
  • Investment was mixed as structures and R&D stayed under contraction but spending on equipment was up by 70%q/q (-35% q/q in Q2).
  • Residential investment was up by 59.3% q/q after -35.9%q/q in Q2.
  • There was a strong rebound in both exports and imports, but net trade has negatively contributed to GDP (-3 pp); public consumption was down by 4.5% q/q due to the end of support program (-0.7 pp net contribution to GDP).
  • Inventories were less negative, adding 6 pp to Q3 GDP change.
  • The rebound was mainly driven by sustained domestic demand; Q4 GDP is expected on a slower pace, while uncertainties on public consumption contribution remained in place.


US: Pending home sales (Sept.): -2.2% m/m vs 2.9% expected (prior: 8.8%)

  • A decline in three of 4 districts after sustained upward trend in the past months; low inventories and rising prices could weigh on sales despite remaining sustained demand.


ECB meeting: more accommodation in the pipeline

  • Very dovish statement on economic conditions with rising concerns related to pandemic should support more actions in the next Dec. meeting, already announced by Ms Lagarde.
  • All members agreed that is necessary to act; probably there is not yet a large consensus on the instruments to be used and the magnitude of the changes, giving time to take more information and to reach a larger consensus.
  • Lagarde mentioned implicitly that the ECB is expecting downwards revisions to GDP outlook in Dec. and is ready to take a broad-based action.
  • Lagarde mentioned explicitly that all instruments could be re-calibrated to fit to the new economic environment and pandemic situation to reach ECB’s targets on accommodative financial conditions and inflation.
  • Future action should not only be centred on amount or duration of PEPP, but to associate TLTROs and to combine other available instruments; this should increase expectations on markets and open to door to a Lagarde’s “whatever it takes”.


Eurozone: Business climate (Oct.): -9.6 vs -10.9 expected (prior: -11.4 revised from -11.1)

  • Business confidence was less negative and better than expected over the month.
  • Sentiment was less negative on orders, exports, past production and employment; on the opposite, views on future production have declined over the month.
  • As seen in preliminary PMI, sentiment has relatively improved over the past month; the challenge is to keep this momentum going on while renewed partial lockdown is in place in several countries. 


Eurozone: Service confidence (Oct.): -11.8 vs -14 expected (prior: -11.2 revised from -11.1)

  • Confidence has slightly decreased and was still resilient compared to consensus expectations, but clearly downside risks should intensify next month due to renewed lockdown weighing on services.
  • Over the month, modest improvement was seen in future demand and employment, and opinions were less negative in construction and in retail; a sharp new deterioration should be seen in Nov. in retail under renewed lockdown.


Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Oct.): -15.5 as expected (prior: -13.9)

  • Sentiment has declined from the previous month; opinions have deteriorated on current situation and expectations have also decreased on future economic situation, employment and willingness to buy.
  • Expectations were back to their June level, in line with renewed lockdown announced in several countries.


Germany: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 6.2% as expected (prior: 6.3%)

  • Unemployed was down by 35 k after -10 k the prior month.
  • On ILO definition, the unemployment ratio remained stable at 4.5%.


Italy: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 102 as expected (prior: 103.3 revised from 103.4)

  • Confidence has eased on declining views on future economic situation and rising unemployment.


Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Oct.): 95.6 vs 91.8 expected (prior: 92.6 revised from 92.1)

  • Business sentiment has increased more than expected from the prior month; opinions have improved on current production, orders and economic situation.
  • Expectations on future production and orders were more cautious after a rebound the prior month.


Spain: CPI (Oct.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Preliminary data have shown more stable trend in monthly prices, while yearly trend has declined further, from -0.6% y/y the prior month to -1% y/y.


Germany: CPI (Oct.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: -0.4%)

  • Preliminary data have pointed toward remaining low inflation; the rises in clothes and energy prices have been more than compensated by lower prices in services.
  • Yearly trend has declined further, from -0.4% y/y the prior month to -0.5% y/y.


UK: M4 (Sept.): 12.3% y/y (prior: 12.1%)

  • M4 ex-OFC has slightly increased over the month (0.4% m/m after 0% m/m the prior month).
  • M4 lending was up by 4.3% y/y after 4.4% y/y the prior month; lending to business has slowed down (from 9.7% y/y the prior month to 8.4% y/y), but lending to SMEs has accelerated further (from 21.9% y/y to 23% y/y).
  • Credit consumer was down by 4.6% y/y (from -3.9% y/y the prior month), as consumers repaid debt; on the opposite, mortgage approvals stayed dynamic.
Mittwoch 28 Oktober
France: modest easing in consumer confidence in October

US: Wholesale inventories (Sept.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

  • Inventories in the retail sector have increased by 1.6% m/m after 0.5% m/m the previous month. Inventories have contracted in other sectors.


France: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 94 vs 93 expected (prior: 95)

  • Consumer confidence eased less than expected; while sentiment on current situation was quite stable, expectations on personal situation, standard of living and unemployment have declined from the prior month.
  • New restrictive measures and renewed lockdown to be announced should deteriorate further the confidence.


Italy: PPI (Sept.): 0.3% m/m (prior: 0.1%)

  • PPIs were firmer for consumer goods and energy over the month; yearly trend was less negative, from -4% y/y the prior month to -3.8% y/y.


Spain: Retail sales (real) (Sept.): -3.3% y/y vs -3.4% expected (prior: -2.9% revised from -2.4%)

  • Sales were down by 0.3% m/m; the fall was broad based, except for personal goods which remained on the rise.


Sweden: Retail sales (Sept.): 0.8% m/m (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.3%)

  • Retail sales rebounded in Aug, up by 3.9% y/y


Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Oct.): 106.8 vs 107 expected (prior: 105.5 revised from 105.8)

  • Confidence has regained but less than expected; in parallel, confidence has also increased in construction and in services from the prior month.


Sweden: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 90 vs 88.5 expected (prior: 88.4 revised from 88.3)

  • Consumer confidence has increased slightly more than expected.
  • Rising confidence on future economic situation, but cautiousness on current and future personal situation.


Norway: Retail sales (Sept.): 0.3% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: -4.9%)

  • More volatile data over the past month, due to changing consumer habits; the rebound remained below expectations.


Dienstag 27 Oktober
US: strong durable goods orders but weakening consumers expectations

US: Durable goods orders (Sept.): 1.9% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)

  • New orders were more sustained than expected thanks to aircraft and autos; core order (new orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft) were up by 1% m/m after upward revisions to past month data (2.1% m/m).
  • Orders have rebounded for transport-autos and metals, while they decreased for electrical and machinery over the month.
  • Shipments were up by 0.3 % m/m (-0.3% m/m the prior month) and inventories were up by 0.4% m/m (-0.1% m/m the prior month).
  • With resuming activity and confidence in the manufacturing sector, durable goods have rebounded pointing towards parallel rebound of private capex in Q3 after large decrease in Q2.


US: Housing prices (FHFA) (Aug.): 1.5% q/q vs 0.7% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 1%)

  • A sharp rebound over the month and broad-based across districts.


US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (Aug.): 5.18% y/y vs 4.2% expected (prior: 4.12% revised from 3.95%)

  • Prices remained on a regular upward trend (0.47 % m/m); all districts have contributed positively to the rise in prices.


US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Oct.): 100-9 vs 102 expected (prior: 101.3 revised from 101.8)

  • Confidence has eased somewhat from the previous month; sentiment on current conditions has increased further, while expectations have eased (from 102.9 to 98.4).
  • Positive views on current conditions were fuelled by still rising momentum in jobs available and ongoing positive economic environment.
  • Expectations have weakened due to more cautious 6-month views: some moderation is expected in economic activity from today, and a mixed situation expected on labor and income.
  • Willingness to buy in 6-month horizon has eased for cars and large items but increased further for houses.
  • Expectations were volatile during the year and the index is back to levels seen in July-August, period in which contagion cases were high in the US.


US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Oct.): 29 vs 18 expected (prior: 21)

  • Sentiment on current conditions has strongly rebounded thanks to higher shipments and new orders; 6-month expectations have declined after a strong rebound the prior month, showing a more cautious view on global activity.


Eurozone: M3 (Sept.): 10.4% y/y vs 9.6% expected (prior: 9.5%)

  • M2 (10.3% y/y) and M1 (13.8% y/y) have shown in parallel an accelerating trend over the month.
  • Credit to the private sector has also accelerated further from 4.5% y/y the prior month to 4.7% y/y.


Spain: Unemployment rate (Q3-20): 16.26% vs 16% expected (prior: 15.33%)

  • Despite a rise in employment, unemployed has increased more, and the unemployment ratio has gained further, slightly more than expected.
Montag 26 Oktober
Weakening German IFO; slower new home sales in the US

US: New home sales (Sept.): 959k vs 1025k expected (prior: 994k revised from 1011k)

  • Data have been revised down for past month and have moderated during the month; this moderation was seen over on 3 districts over 4.
  • Inventories have relatively increased, back to past month level, but remained globally tight; prices were on a sustained rising trend after a pause in the previous month. Low rates and rising prices have worked in parallel in past quarters, with sustained demand for housing.


Germany: IFO (Oct.): 92.7 vs 93 expected (prior: 93.2 revised from 93.4)

  • Business sentiment has weakened contrary to expectations from the prior month. Views on current situation have improved further, but expectations have weakened, back to their June-July levels.
  • By sector, the sentiment has reversed in trade and weakened also in construction; it has decreased on services but improved further in manufacturing.
  • IFO pointed towards diverging trend between manufacturing and trade-retail sectors facing new restrictions due to second wave of contagion.


Spain: PPI (Sept.): 0.3% m/m (prior: 0.2%)

  • Prices of energy and basic metals have rebounded over the month.
  • Yearly trend was slightly less negative, from -3.5% y/y the prior month to -3.3% y/y.


Turkey: Industrial confidence (Oct.): 109.7 (prior: 105.7)

  • Sentiment has rebounded on all major sub-components: production, orders and capex; on the contrary, views on exports have eroded from the prior month.

Institutionelle Kunden

Das UBP Asset Management ist dank organischem Wachstum und ausgewählten Partnerschaften heute mit mehr als 200 Mitarbeitenden an den wichtigsten Finanzzentren der Welt präsent.

Unser Fondsangebot


Alle Fonds sehen.

Analysen 15.10.2020

The draw of the booming fintech sector

Martin Moeller, Portfolio Manager of our newly launched strategy, shares his view on why global fintech equities are an interesting investment right now.