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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Freitag 24 September
German IFO on a slower trend

US: New home sales (Aug.): 740k vs 715k expected (prior: 729k revised from 708k)

  • Sales have increased from the prior month; the picture was more contrasted across districts in terms of sales.
  • Median prices were flat over the month, but remained on a strong yearly trend, up by 20.1% y/y after 18.5% y/y.


Germany: IFO (Sept.): 98.8 vs 99 expected (prior: 99.6 revised from 99.4)

  • Sentiment has eased from the prior month on both lower opinions on current situation and lower expectations; nevertheless, the decrease seemed less pronounced than in the preliminary PMI indices published yesterday.
  • By sector, sentiment has declined more in the manufacturing sector than the overall index, probably reflecting the remaining bottlenecks. The sentiment has eased in trade sector, but it has increased in services (contrary to PMI services) and in construction.


UK: GFK consumer confidence (Sept.): -13 vs -7 expected (prior: -8)

  • Sentiment has dramatically fallen, due to deteriorating expectations on economy and financial situation. Willingness to spend has also declined.


Italy: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 119.6 vs 115.8 expected (prior: 116.2)

  • Sentiment has strongly improved over the month, driven by a more positive outlook.


Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Sept.): 113 vs 112.7 expected (prior: 113.4)

  • Sentiment has eased from the prior month, but less than expected. Outlook on production and new orders has slightly eased from the prior month.


Brazil: Current account (Aug.): 1684 M$ vs 1250 M$ expected (prior: -1494 M$ revised from -1584 M$)

  • Foreign direct investment has moderated from USD 6103 M the prior month to USD 4451 M.


Brazil: CPI (Sept.): 1.14% m/m vs 1.04% expected (prior: 0.89%)

  • Prices were firmer than expected over the month due to strong monthly rises in transport-energy, housing and household goods sectors.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further, from 9.3% y/y the prior month to 10.05% y/y; these data maintained upside risks on further key rates adjustments.


Brazil: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 75.3 (prior: 81.8)

  • Sentiment has declined on both expectations and current situation.


Turkey: Industrial confidence (Sept.): 113.3 (prior: 112.2)

  • Sentiment has slightly increased on production, export orders and employment from the prior month.
  • The index has reached highest levels since 2018.
Donnerstag 23 September
Weakening business sentiment in manufacturing and services; central banks adopt various strategies based on domestic priorities

US: Initial jobless claims (Sept. 18): 351k vs 320k expected (prior: 335k revised from 332k)

  • Continuing claims: 2845 k after 2714 k the prior week.


US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sept.): 60.5 vs 61 expected (prior: 61.1)

  • Business confidence has decreased from the prior month, but the index remained at a high level.
  • Over the month, sentiment eased on production and delivery time has increased further, pointing towards remaining bottlenecks in the supply chain; prices and costs were on the rise, fueled by rising wages and employment.


US: Markit Services PMI (Sept.): 54.4 vs 54.9 expected (prior: 55.1)

  • The index has decreased further, and it was back to the levels seen in 2018-2019; confidence has decreased on current and future activity, and new export orders have sharply declined.
  • Demand conditions have decreased, partly due to virus concerns; employment index stayed stable after several months of strong improvement.
  • Prices and costs stayed on the rise.


UK: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 56.3 vs 59 expected (prior: 60.3)

  • Preliminary index has declined more than expected and was back to its Feb. level.
  • Sentiment has deteriorated on production and new orders; constraints remained in place in the supply chain and demand was also softer; shortage continued in labor but firms adapted their demand facing a weakening demand.
  • Prices and costs remained on the rise.


UK: PMI Services (Sept.): 54.6 vs 55 expected (prior: 55)

  • Confidence has only marginally eased from the prior month, on lower monthly sentiment on activity, new orders and job creations.
  • Prices and costs remained on the rise.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 58.7 vs 60.3 expected (prior: 61.4)

  • Preliminary data have shown further decline in sentiment; the index has fallen more in Germany (from 62.6 to 58.5) than in France (from 57.5 to 55.2).
  • Sentiment has declined on production, new orders, export orders and also employment; bottlenecks and disruption in supply have weighed more on activity.
  • Prices and costs remained on the rise.


Eurozone: PMI Services (Sept.): 56.3 vs 58.5 expected (prior: 59)

  • Preliminary data have shown a parallel decline in services and in manufacturing from the prior month.
  • Opinions have decreased on new orders, but slightly increased on exports; new demand was impacted by virus uncertainties and employment has also decreased.
  • Prices and costs remained on the rise.
  • Over the month, the decline in sentiment was more pronounced in Germany than in France.


France: Business confidence (Sept.): 111 vs 110 expected (prior: 110)

  • Confidence in the manufacturing sector was down over the month from 110 to 106; sentiment has declined on past and future production; foreign orders have deteriorated over the month.
  • In parallel, sentiment has slightly increased in services.


Spain: GDP (Q2-21): 1.1% q/q vs 2.8% expected (prior: -0.6%)

  • Final data for Q2 have been sharply revised down from initial estimates (2.8% q/q).
  • Consumption was up by 4.7% q/q after -2.2% q/q, while all other sectors were sharply negative over the quarter, particularly capex (-4.7% q/q).; in parallel, imports were firmer than exports.


Poland: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 5.8% as expected (prior: 5.8%)

  • Unemployed remained on a downward trend; the unemployment ratio stayed stable over the month, but its trend remained downward.


Switzerland: The SNB has not changed its current policy

  • Key rates remained at -0.75%. In its statement, the bank mentioned the CHF remained highly valued and it could intervene on FX as necessary, as in past statements.
  • Inflation projections have slightly increased (+0.1 pp) for 2021 (0.5% y/y) and 2022 (0.7% y/y), pointing to bottlenecks in the supply side and high energy prices. Growth is expected to remain on positive trend thanks to rising vaccination.
  • Finally, the bank remined that vulnerability of housing and mortgage markets has increased further.


Norway: Unemployment rate (Jul.): 4.2% (prior: 4.8%)

  • Downward trend in unemployment ratio has increased over the month.


Norway: Norges bank has increased its key rated from 0% to 0.25%, as expected

  • The bank has increased its deposit rates for the first time since May 20. The bank mentioned another probable adjustment on rates in the Dec. meeting, based on strong rebound in activity and regaining inflation post pandemic.


UK: The BoE has left unchanged its key rates

  • The BoE maintained its current purchases (GBP 20 bn on corporate bonds; 875 bn on UK government bonds).
  • The bank seemed worried about upside risks in inflation (above 4% y/y in Q4 in its projection) coming from energy prices and rising wages; it mentioned prices could remain high in Q2-22, before declining towards 2%.
  • The bank mentioned that a "modest tightening "in rates could be necessary medium-term based on inflation; the Bank was also uncertain on the trend in labor after the end of government support and was waiting for more data on labor and wages before deciding. In its statement, the bank mentioned that key rates adjustment could intervene before the end of government bond purchases.
  • Two governors have voted in favor of an immediate reduction in stocks of assets.
  • The bank is clearly not comfortable on inflation, which raises the probability of a rate hike in Q2-22, before any Fed adjustment on rates, but activity has recently shown signs of slowdown.


Turkey: Central bank has cut key rates from 19% to 18%

  • Surprisingly, the bank cut one-week repo rate from 19% to 18%.
  • The bank mentioned inflation pressures (19% y/y on the headline) will be transitory and looks more comfortable on core inflation behaviour.
Mittwoch 22 September
Decreasing US existing home sales; improving consumer confidence in eurozone

US: Existing home sales (Aug.): 5.88M vs 5.89M expected (prior: 6M revised from 5.99M)

  • Sales have decreased over the month, more for condos (-2.8% m/m) than for single-family houses (-1.9% m/m). Sales evolved past months in a 5.7-6 M range.
  • Median prices of sales remained high in absolute terms; they have marginally decreased from the prior month but were still up by 14.8% y/y.


Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Sept.): -4 vs -5.9 expected (prior: -5.3)

  • Preliminary data have pointed on regaining confidence after the decline seen in August; the index was back to its July level, but remained below the June level (peak level ytd).
  • No details offered but concerns on virus, inflation and labor were the key topics for consumers prior months.


Turkey: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 79.7 (prior: 78.2)

  • Confidence has improved from the prior month and the index was back to its July level, being highly volatile over the recent period.
  • The improvement was broad-based and particularly driven by rising confidence on future economic conditions and on financial conditions.
Dienstag 21 September
US Housing starts rose by more than expected in August

US: Housing starts (Aug): 1615k vs 1550k expected (prior: 1554k revised from 1534k)

  • Over the month housing months have strongly increased for multifamily (+20.6% m/m) but declined for single family (-2.8% m/m); Housing starts remain mostly above pre-pandemic levels, which is expected keep construction activity elevated for some time.
  • Building permits have continued to increase (from 1630 K to 1728 k), but mainly driven by multifamily houses. In August, building permits increased by 6%, the biggest gain since January, reflecting a sizable jump in multi-family units. Permit applications for single-family homes also edged higher.
Montag 20 September
Modest improvement on sentiment in US housing

US: NAHB housing market index (Sept.): 76 vs 74 expected (prior: 75)

  • Sentiment has slightly regained after prior month decline, but the index remained below the levels seen in Q2. The index was back on the high levels seen in 2019 and 2018.
  • The improvement was driven by sales: higher current sales and higher prospects. Nevertheless, sentiment has only improved in two districts over 4, the index remaining low in the two other districts.


Germany: PPI (Aug.): 1.5% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 1.9%)

  • Prices have increased further due to rising prices of energy (3.3% m/m) and basic goods (1.5% m/m).
  • The yearly trend has accelerated further, from10.4% y/y to 12 %y/y.


Poland: CPI (Aug.): -2.5% m/m vs -1.1% expected (prior: -3.9%)

  • All sectors were down over the month; manufacturing production was down by 2.7% m/m after -4.5% m/m the prior month.

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