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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
Title
Teaser
Montag 18 März
US: rising sentiment in housing; Eurozone inflation on decline but resilient services

US: NAHB housing market index (March): 51 vs 48 expected (prior: 48)

  • Sentiment has strongly rebounded over the month; opinions have strongly increased for current sales and improved for future sales.

 

Eurozone: CPI (Feb.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: -0.4%)

  • Core inflation was up by 0.7% m/m after -0.9% m/m the prior month.
  • Energy prices were up by 1.5% m/m after 1.2% m/m prior month; prices of industrial goods were up by 0.4% m/m after -2.4% m/m prior month, and services up by 0.9% m/m after -0.1% m/m in Jan.
  • Yearly trend has declined further, from 2.8% y/y to 2.6% y/y and core inflation from 3.3% to 3.1% y/y.
  • Prices of goods have shown a 1.6% y/y trend after 2% y/y the prior month, but prices of services stayed on a 4% y/y trend over the past 4 months.

 

 

 

Freitag 15 März
US: firmer manufacturing production, but decreasing consumer confidence

US: Empire manufacturing (March): -20.9 vs -7 expected (prior: -2.4)

  • Sentiment has deteriorated on current conditions: falling new orders, shipments and prices paid.
  • The 6-month index remained stable and positive; opinions on new orders have improved, but index for prices paid has also regained.

 

US: Industrial production (Feb.): 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.1%)

  • Manufacturing production was up by 0.8% m/m after -1.1% m/m the prior month.
  • Production by sector has reversed in terms of performances from the prior month: a large rebound in autos and machinery (after large fall prior month) but a decrease in utility sectors (contrary to a strong advance past month).

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (March): 76.5 vs 77.1 expected (prior: 76.9)

  • Sentiment has weakened from the prior month due to lower expectations, while index remained stable concerning current situation.
  • Opinions have decreased on future economy, and also on jobs and personal financial situation.
  • Willingness to buy remained positive, particularly on autos.
  • Inflation expectations remained stable at 3% (1-year) and at 2.9% (5-10-year).

 

France: CPI (Feb.): 0.9% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Rebound in prices over the month has been confirmed, due mainly to higher energy prices (up by 4% m/m).
  • Services were also up by 0.8% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month) due to strong rises in transport and communication.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 3.4% prior month to 3.2% y/y.

 

Sweden: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 8% vs 8.2% expected (prior: 8.2%)

  • Unemployed remained quite stable over the month. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has eased from the prior month, while other measures remained stable during the month.

 

Poland: CPI (Feb.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Over the month, prices for food, clothes and equipment were down, but on the rise for fuel, transport, recreation and leisure.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 3.7% prior month to 2.8% y/y.
Donnerstag 14 März
US PPI: energy, food and transport services pushed prices higher than expected

US: Initial jobless claims (March 9): 209k vs 218k expected (prior: 210k revised from 217k)

  • Continuing claims: 1811 k after 1794 k.

 

US: Retail sales (Feb.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -0.8%)

  • Sales came weaker than expected and prior month data were revised lower.
  • The monthly rebound was centred on autos, electronics, building materials and also gasoline station.
  • Sales of furniture and health have contracted.
  • Sales ex autos, gasoline, building materials and food (core sales) stayed flat over the month after -0.3% m/m the prior month.
  • Based on core sales, momentum has weakened on the consumer side, but Q1 consumption should remain above 2% q/q saar after strong 3% q/q saar in Q4-23.

 

US: PPI (Feb.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Prices were higher than expected due to strong rebounds in several sectors over the month: energy, food and transport-warehousing services prices were on a more pronounced rise than in past months.
  • Core PPI (prices ex energy, food and trade) were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.6% m/m the prior month.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated to 1.6% y/y after 1% y/y the prior month and core PPI up by 2.8% y/y after 2.7% y/y the prior month. These data paved the way to another sustained monthly rise on next core PCE, up by more than 0.30% m/m after 0.43% m/m the prior month (2.8% y/y expected).

 

US: Business inventories (Jan.): 0% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

  • Inventories have increased further for autos but have fallen in manufacturing sector over the month.

 

Spain: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Inflation has been confirmed on a monthly rebound; prices were lower for housing and clothes, while prices have re-accelerated for transport, hotels and tobacco.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 3.5% the prior month to 2.9%, but core inflation has regained from 3.4% prior month to 3.5% y/y.

 

Sweden: CPI (Feb.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.3%)

  • Prices for clothes, health care, transport and leisure have accelerated over the month; inflation ex energy was up by 0.6% m/m after -0.5% m/m the prior month.
  • Thanks to base effects, yearly trend has declined further, from 3.3% prior month to 2.5% y/y. and for core inflation from 4.4% to 3.5% y/y.

 

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Feb.): 0.1% m/m (prior: -0.5%)

  • Prices have declined by 2% y/y after -2.5% y/y the prior month.

 

UK: RICS house price balance (Feb.): -10% as expected (prior: -19% revised from -18%)

  • Sentiment has improved on housing from the prior month.
  • New demand has regained over the moth, while professionals remained cautious on future sales and prices.

 

Brazil: Retail sales (Jan.): 2.4% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -1.5% revised from -1.1%)

  • Except fuel and health care products, sales have regained strongly over the month after disappointing numbers in Dec.
Mittwoch 13 März
UK economy rebounds

Eurozone: Industrial production (Jan): -3.2% m/m vs -1.8% expected (prior: 1.6% revised from 2.6%)

  • In January, Eurozone production experienced a sharper decline than anticipated, highlighting the ongoing challenges faced by the region's manufacturing sector, particularly evident in Germany.
  • The decline was primarily driven by a significant drop in capital goods (-14.5% m/m). Additionally, output decreased for both durable goods (-1.2%vs. 1.0% in December) and non-durable consumer goods (-0.3% vs -2.2%).
  • However, there were some positive developments, as the production of intermediate goods notably increased by 2.6%, bouncing back from five consecutive months of either contraction or stagnation. Furthermore, energy output grew by 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive period of expansion.

 

UK: GDP (Jan): 0.2% q/q as expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • The British economy expanded 0.2% m/m in January, following a 0.1% fall in December, and matching market forecasts.
  • This rebound follows a technical recession experienced in the second half of 2023. The largest upward contribution came from the services sector (0.2% vs -0.1% in December) and construction (1.1% vs -0.5%).
  • On the other hand, industrial output fell 0.2% (vs +0.6%), driven by a 2.2% drop in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities.
  • Considering the 3 months to January, the British economy shrank 0.1%.

 

Italy: Unemployment rate (4Q): 7.4% vs 7.3% expected (prior: 7.6%)

Dienstag 12 März
US inflation: still resilient core inflation over the month

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Feb.): 89.4 vs 90.5 expected (prior: 89.9)

  • Sentiment has eroded further and was back to its previous low levels.
  • Confidence has deteriorated on future economic situation, and decreased on sales, capex but also on selling prices.

 

US: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Core inflation was up by 0.4% m/m as seen in the prior month.
  • Inflation remained sustained over the month due to higher energy prices (2.3% m/m, due to gasoline prices) and services still up by 0.5% m/m after 0.7% m/m the prior month.
  • Within services, airfares have accelerated further, up by 3.6% mm after 1.4 % m/m prior month. Housing was up by 0.4% m/m after 0.6% m/m the prior month.
  • Yearly trend has increased from 3.1% to 3.2% for headline index but declined from 3.9% to 3.8% for core inflation.
  • Inflation remained too strong on a monthly basis, but only two sub-sectors have shown a very strong rise (airfares and transport services) within services. Fed should be right to wait for June to decide on rates, while headline inflation is expected to continue to evolve above 3% y/y next month.

 

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Jan.): 3.9% vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.9%)

  • Claimant count: 4% as the prior month. Jobless claims: 16.8 k after 3.1 k the prior month.
  • 3M employment was down by 21 k after 72 k the previous period.

 

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Jan.): 5.6% y/y vs 5.7% expected (prior: 5.8%)

  • Wage growth has eased from the prior month; pressures have eased in all sectors, including manufacturing and services.
  • Trend in wage growth looks more reassuring for the central bank, while employment has just slightly moderated, with a modest rise in unemployment.

 

Germany: CPI (Feb.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Final data have confirmed the first estimates; inflation was strong over the month due mainly to clothes and oil-energy sectors, with some rises in parallel in leisure-hotel sectors.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 3.1% y/y the prior month to 2.7% y/y.

 

Brazil: CPI (Feb.): 0.83% m/m vs 0.79% expected (prior: 0.42%)

  • Prices of food, education, communication, and transport have strongly rebounded over the month.
  • Yearly trend remained quite stable at 4.50% y/y after 4.51% y/y the prior month.

 

Turkey: Industrial production (Jan.): 0% m/m vs 2.4% expected (prior: 2.8%)

  • Production has contracted by 0.3% m/m in manufacturing while activity was strong in mining, energy, and utility sectors over the month.

 

Turkey: Current account (Jan.): -2.56bn USD vs -2.91bn expected (prior: -2.13bn revised from -2.09bn)

  • Current account deficit has increased over the month; foreign reserves have declined over the month.
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