1. Newsroom
  2. Investment Outlook Q3 2016
Menu
Analysen 15.07.2016

Investment Outlook Q3 2016

Investment Outlook Q3 2016

Global growth outlook clouded by rising political uncertainties


The world growth outlook should remain modest in the second half of the year, despite the surge in risk after the UK’s referendum on its EU membership.

Concern about a renewed US slowdown in early 2016 aggravated pressures in both Europe and Asia. This raised fresh concerns about the availability and effectiveness of future policy measures by central banks, as well as the political capability of fi scal agents in governments around the world.

However, it was, once again, policymakers whose actions helped allay concerns, with the US Federal Reserve pausing its tightening cycle while the European Central Bank (ECB) expanded its purchases and announced its ‘credit easing’ programme in March. China’s authorities also joined the fray with more traditional fi scal and monetary measures, and even the G20 weighed in, restraining members from using currency weaknesses to help their domestic economies.

Although central banks demonstrated their readiness to support growth momentum and carry out economic repairs where possible in H1 2016, the unexpected ‘leave’ vote in the UK now puts their inability to drive structural reform in the spotlight – a task left to reluctant politicians in Europe and, increasingly, around the world.

Politicians on the Continent will now have to take the lead in reshaping the European project. The UK’s vote marks the start of a long period of uncertainty in Europe, heightening risks of the EU fragmenting. The lack of momentum on reforms since the eurozone crisis broke out, combined with the catalyst of the UK’s leave vote, forms the key threat to the fragile global growth.

The direct economic damage from the UK’s leave vote should weigh most heavily on the UK economy, while having only a moderate impact on that of the eurozone. Our expectations on world growth have barely changed in the aftermath of the vote, as we see limited impact on a steady recovery in the US and stability that has re-established itself in emerging economies.

Dowlnload our publication to learn more.

Expertise

Impact investing - Contributing to a more sustainable future

What are the key features of impact investing?

Read more

Meistgelesene News

Analysen 19.02.2020

Changes in consumption patterns

Despite being fast-moving and quite unpredictable, changes in consumption patterns are expected to reshape the economic landscape.

Analysen 15.04.2020

The Case For Frontier Debt

India’s total infected cases (979) and fatality rate (25) remain low but it has been escalating. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), this can become overwhelming, if uncontrolled.

Analysen 22.04.2020

Impact Report 2019: an eventful year

UBP is proud to release the second edition of its Impact Report.

Auch lesenswert

Analysen 03.07.2020

COVID-19: Die UBP hält Sie auf dem Laufenden

Seit dem Ausbruch des Coronavirus begleiten und unterstützen wir unsere Kunden während dieser ungewöhnlichen Zeit einer weltweiten Gesundheitskrise. Die Bank informiert Sie regelmässig über die Anpassungen ihrer Massnahmen an die von den Gesundheitsbehörden vorgegebenen Vorsichtsregeln. Ausserdem kommen unsere Experten zu Wort, welche auf die Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf die Weltwirtschaft und die Finanzmärkte eingehen.

Analysen 30.06.2020

Aktualisierter Ausblick 2020

Weltwirtschaft - quo vadis?

Analysen 24.06.2020

Market turmoil brings new opportunities for pragmatic investors

March 2020 was difficult time for many investors, as COVID-19 spread across Europe and the US, leading to sharp sell-offs in fixed-income credit markets. While such market turbulence is not to be welcomed, its occurrence can create opportunities.