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Analysen 10.01.2018

Gold startet stark ins neue Jahr, doch schon bald dürfte es zu einer Korrektur kommen

Gold startet stark ins neue Jahr, doch schon bald dürfte es zu einer Korrektur kommen

Gold legte gleich zum Jahresauftakt eine Rally auf den höchsten Stand seit Mitte September 2017 hin.


Gold legte gleich zum Jahresauftakt eine Rally auf den höchsten Stand seit Mitte September 2017 hin. Mehrere Faktoren dienten als Treiber: die unaufhörlichen Spannungen zwischen den USA und Nordkorea, Präsident Trumps Entscheid, Jerusalem als Hauptstadt Israels zu anerkennen und die Reaktionen darauf in der muslimischen Welt sowie die jüngste Politik- und Wirtschaftskrise im Iran. Diese verunsichernden Ereignisse veranlassten die Anleger, in den sicheren Goldhafen zu flüchten. In letzter Zeit erwies sich Gold als Schutz vor geopolitischen Turbulenzen leider als nicht sehr zuverlässig. Auch können wir nicht die Möglichkeit ausschliessen, dass vorgenannte Situationen zu handfesten Krisen ausarten werden.

Zusätzliche und wahrscheinlich eher gerechtfertigte Unterstützung für die Goldrally könnten der kürzliche Rückfall des US-Dollars auf seinen niedrigsten Stand in drei Monaten und die Abflachung der Renditekurve liefern.

Eigentümlicherweise setzte das Edelmetall schon Mitte Dezember zu seinem Aufstieg an. Die US-Notenbank hatte gerade ihre Zinsen zum dritten Mal angehoben und die Rendite für 10-jährige US-Staatsanleihen näherten sich 2,50%. Dies signalisierte nicht nur eine weltweit fortlaufend synchrone Wachstumsentwicklung, sondern auch die Möglichkeit, dass das nun verabschiedete Steuergesetz Wirtschaft und Inflation in den kommenden Jahren Auftrieb verleihen könnte. Die anziehenden Renditen waren auch den Erwartungen einer höheren Verschuldung zuzuschreiben, die der Finanzierung der Steuerreform dienen und laut Congressional Budget Office in 2018 das Haushaltsdefizit von 3,5% auf 5,5% des BIP treiben könnten.

Das am Mittwoch veröffentlichte Protokoll der Notenbanksitzung vom 12.-13. Dezember bestätigte, dass die Mehrzahl ihrer Mitglieder der amerikanischen Wirtschaft weiterhin optimistisch gegenüber stehen und den Ansatz eines schrittweisen Ausbaus des Zielbands für die Zinsen befürworten. Gemäss Dot Plot sollte das Fed in diesem Jahr mit der Reduktion ihrer Bilanz fortfahren und drei weitere Zinserhöhungen vornehmen.

Einige Mitglieder drückten aber ihre Besorgnis über das Risiko eines schnelleren Vorgehens aus. Dazu gehörte auch ein möglicher übermässiger Inflationsdruck, falls die Wirtschaftsleistung aufgrund von steuerlichen Impulsen (die Steuerreform wird Konsum und Investitionsausgaben befeuern) oder noch akkommodierender Finanzierungsbedingungen ihr maximal nachhaltiges Niveau übersteigt.

Dementsprechend bleiben wir Gold gegenüber ausgesprochen vorsichtig, denn wir sind der Ansicht, dass vor allem der Zinserhöhungszyklus des Fed und dessen Auswirkungen auf den US-Dollar als wichtigster Katalysator fungieren wird. Derweil stärkten geopolitische Spannungen und die kürzlich schwächelnden Kryptowährungen die Rolle des Goldes als sichere Wertanlage zu der sich auch die traditionellen Goldkäufe für das chinesische Neujahr gesellen werden. Auf längere Sicht halten wir an unserer Überzeugung fest, dass sich sein Preis zwischen 1’100 und 1’350 US-Dollar bewegen und während mehreren Jahren begrenztes Potential aufweisen wird. Wir geniessen daher seinen Abstecher in höhere Gefilde solange er anhält.

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Meistgelesene News

Market insight 16.02.2018

US consumer confidence surprised to the upside, UK retail sales broadly flat

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Feb P): 99.9 vs 95.5 expected (prior: 95.7)

  • Current conditions: 115.1 vs 111.1 expected (prior: 110.5)
  • Expectations: 90.2 vs 87.2 expected (prior: 86.3)
  • The press release states that negative references to stock prices were spontaneously cited by just 6% of all consumers. Instead, favorable perceptions of the tax reforms dominated.
  • All in all, consumers still appear to be in strong shape to boost their spending again over the coming months.

 

US: Import price index (Jan): 1% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)

  • On a y/y basis: 3.6% vs 3% expected (prior: 3% revised from 3.2%)
  • Headline was driven by a surge in imported petroleum prices (+4.3% m/m).
  • Within non-petroleum imported prices, the bulk of the increase came from industrial supplies (+3.1% m/m), while prices of capital goods and autos recorded only modest growth.

 

US: Housing starts (Jan): 1326k vs 1234k expected (prior: 1209k revised from 1192k)

  • On a y/y basis: 9.7% vs 3.5% expected (prior: -8.2% revised from -6.9%)
  • Building permits: 1396k vs 1300k expected (prior: 1302k revised from 1300k); 7.4% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.2%)
  • While the volatile multi-family category led the increase, single-family starts rose as well.

 

UK: Retail sales (Jan): 0.1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -1.4% revised from -1.5%)

  • On a y/y basis: 1.6% vs 2.5% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 1.5%)
  • Ex autos: 0.1% vs 0.6% expected (prior: -1.6% revised from -1.5%); 1.5% y/y vs 2.4% expected (prior: 1.3%)
  • Retail sales growth was broadly flat at the beginning of the New Year with the longer-term picture showing a continued slowdown in the sector.
Market insight 15.02.2018

Rising core PPI and disappointing industrial production in the US

US: PPI (Jan.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.0% revised from -0.1%)

  • PPI y/y: 2.7% vs 2.4% expected (prior: 2.6%)
  • Core PPI: 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1%); 2.2% y/y vs 2.0% expected (prior: 2.3%)
  • The annual increase in core PPI is close to a 6-year high, which partly reflects the upward pressure on import prices from the weaker dollar and provides further evidence that inflationary pressures are set to build this year.

US: Industrial production (Jan.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.9%)

  • Manufacturing production was flat m/m (vs 0.3% expected) and previous readings were revised slightly lower.
  • Except the 0.6% m/m rise in utilities output, which was due to the unseasonably cold temperatures in some regions, the weakness in January was broad-based.
  • Along with the weaker retail sales data released yesterday, this report provides further evidence that economic growth may (yet again) disappoint in Q1.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Feb.): 25.8 vs 21.8 expected (prior: 22.2)

  • Unexpected increase with a solid rise in new orders, in employment but also in prices paid.

US: Empire manufacturing (Feb.): 13.1 vs 18.0 expected (prior: 17.7)

  • New orders slightly increased while employment and prices paid rose more meaningfully.
  • These two regional surveys confirms that manufacturers continue to be optimistic for the economic activity.

US: Initial jobless claims (Feb. 10): 230k vs 228k expected (prior: 223k revised from 221k)

US: NAHB housing market index (Feb.): 72 as expected (prior: 72)

  • Homebuilders' confidence remains close to the highest level since 1999.
  • The measure on the 6-month outlook reached its highest since 2005.

Russia: Industrial production (Jan.): 2.9% y/y vs -0.5% expected (prior: -1.5%)

 

Market insight 14.02.2018

US: higher inflation and lower retail sales than expected

US: CPI (Jan.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)

  • Yearly trend on headline inflation was stable at 2.1% y/y; core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m (vs 0.2% m/m expected and in prior month; stable at 1.8% y/y).
  • Energy (3% m/m), apparels (1.7% m/m; related to import prices) and services (0.3% m/m) were responsible for the monthly rebound.
  • Outlook on inflation points towards a rising trend; after moderate yearly trend in Q1, headline inflation should be close to 3% y/y in Q2, and core CPI above 2% y/y according to our scenario. 2018 average headline inflation should now reach 2.5% y/y and core inflation 2.2% y/y.
  • This argues in favor of regular rate hikes from the Fed in Q1 and Q2-18, and in favor of 4 rate hikes this year.

 

US: Retail sales (Jan.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0% revised from 0.4%)

  • Core sales were flat (0.4% m/m expected) and past month data were revised from 0.4% m/m to 0% m/m.
  • Bad weather conditions and a pause after strong Q4 data partly explained the negative surprises on sales.
  • Purchases on several items have reversed from the past two months (autos, building materials and electronics); non-store sales were flat after 0.5% m/m.
  • Too early to see in these volatile data a reversal in US scenario, as supports should continue from the heathy labor and some fiscal easing.

 

US: Business inventories (Dec.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Inventories have increased (notably ex-autos); but sales were still dynamic (0.6% m/m).

 

Eurozone: Industrial production (Dec.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 1%)

  • Except capital goods, momentum in production was positive for all major sectors.
  • Yearly trend has reached 5.2% y/y, comparable to the high pace in activity reached before the crisis.

 

Germany: GDP (Q4-17): 0.6% q/q as expected (prior: 0.8%)

  • Growth has been strong at year end; Eurozone GDP has also been confirmed up by 0.6% q/q in Q4-17.

 

Germany: CPI (Jan.): -1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Rising oil and food prices, while prices for leisure and clothes have weakened.
  • Yearly trend has moderated from 1.6% y/y to 1.4% y/y.

 

Italy: GDP (Q4-17): 0.3% q/q as expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • GDP was up by 1.6% y/y (1.7% y/y in Q3-17); Italy is under a progressive recovery, but it remains fragile.

 

Poland: GDP (Q4-17): 1% q/q vs 1.2% expected (prior: 1.2%)

  • Activity was on an accelerating trend (5.1% y/y after 4.9% y/y in Q3-17).

 

Turkey: Current account (Dec.): -7.7bn USD vs -7.5bn expected (prior: -4.38bn revised from -4.2bn)

  • Rising imports and weaker exports have increased trade and current account deficits.

Auch lesenswert

Market insight 16.02.2018

US consumer confidence surprised to the upside, UK retail sales broadly flat

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Feb P): 99.9 vs 95.5 expected (prior: 95.7)

  • Current conditions: 115.1 vs 111.1 expected (prior: 110.5)
  • Expectations: 90.2 vs 87.2 expected (prior: 86.3)
  • The press release states that negative references to stock prices were spontaneously cited by just 6% of all consumers. Instead, favorable perceptions of the tax reforms dominated.
  • All in all, consumers still appear to be in strong shape to boost their spending again over the coming months.

 

US: Import price index (Jan): 1% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)

  • On a y/y basis: 3.6% vs 3% expected (prior: 3% revised from 3.2%)
  • Headline was driven by a surge in imported petroleum prices (+4.3% m/m).
  • Within non-petroleum imported prices, the bulk of the increase came from industrial supplies (+3.1% m/m), while prices of capital goods and autos recorded only modest growth.

 

US: Housing starts (Jan): 1326k vs 1234k expected (prior: 1209k revised from 1192k)

  • On a y/y basis: 9.7% vs 3.5% expected (prior: -8.2% revised from -6.9%)
  • Building permits: 1396k vs 1300k expected (prior: 1302k revised from 1300k); 7.4% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.2%)
  • While the volatile multi-family category led the increase, single-family starts rose as well.

 

UK: Retail sales (Jan): 0.1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -1.4% revised from -1.5%)

  • On a y/y basis: 1.6% vs 2.5% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 1.5%)
  • Ex autos: 0.1% vs 0.6% expected (prior: -1.6% revised from -1.5%); 1.5% y/y vs 2.4% expected (prior: 1.3%)
  • Retail sales growth was broadly flat at the beginning of the New Year with the longer-term picture showing a continued slowdown in the sector.
Market insight 15.02.2018

Rising core PPI and disappointing industrial production in the US

US: PPI (Jan.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.0% revised from -0.1%)

  • PPI y/y: 2.7% vs 2.4% expected (prior: 2.6%)
  • Core PPI: 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1%); 2.2% y/y vs 2.0% expected (prior: 2.3%)
  • The annual increase in core PPI is close to a 6-year high, which partly reflects the upward pressure on import prices from the weaker dollar and provides further evidence that inflationary pressures are set to build this year.

US: Industrial production (Jan.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.9%)

  • Manufacturing production was flat m/m (vs 0.3% expected) and previous readings were revised slightly lower.
  • Except the 0.6% m/m rise in utilities output, which was due to the unseasonably cold temperatures in some regions, the weakness in January was broad-based.
  • Along with the weaker retail sales data released yesterday, this report provides further evidence that economic growth may (yet again) disappoint in Q1.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Feb.): 25.8 vs 21.8 expected (prior: 22.2)

  • Unexpected increase with a solid rise in new orders, in employment but also in prices paid.

US: Empire manufacturing (Feb.): 13.1 vs 18.0 expected (prior: 17.7)

  • New orders slightly increased while employment and prices paid rose more meaningfully.
  • These two regional surveys confirms that manufacturers continue to be optimistic for the economic activity.

US: Initial jobless claims (Feb. 10): 230k vs 228k expected (prior: 223k revised from 221k)

US: NAHB housing market index (Feb.): 72 as expected (prior: 72)

  • Homebuilders' confidence remains close to the highest level since 1999.
  • The measure on the 6-month outlook reached its highest since 2005.

Russia: Industrial production (Jan.): 2.9% y/y vs -0.5% expected (prior: -1.5%)

 

Market insight 14.02.2018

US: higher inflation and lower retail sales than expected

US: CPI (Jan.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)

  • Yearly trend on headline inflation was stable at 2.1% y/y; core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m (vs 0.2% m/m expected and in prior month; stable at 1.8% y/y).
  • Energy (3% m/m), apparels (1.7% m/m; related to import prices) and services (0.3% m/m) were responsible for the monthly rebound.
  • Outlook on inflation points towards a rising trend; after moderate yearly trend in Q1, headline inflation should be close to 3% y/y in Q2, and core CPI above 2% y/y according to our scenario. 2018 average headline inflation should now reach 2.5% y/y and core inflation 2.2% y/y.
  • This argues in favor of regular rate hikes from the Fed in Q1 and Q2-18, and in favor of 4 rate hikes this year.

 

US: Retail sales (Jan.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0% revised from 0.4%)

  • Core sales were flat (0.4% m/m expected) and past month data were revised from 0.4% m/m to 0% m/m.
  • Bad weather conditions and a pause after strong Q4 data partly explained the negative surprises on sales.
  • Purchases on several items have reversed from the past two months (autos, building materials and electronics); non-store sales were flat after 0.5% m/m.
  • Too early to see in these volatile data a reversal in US scenario, as supports should continue from the heathy labor and some fiscal easing.

 

US: Business inventories (Dec.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Inventories have increased (notably ex-autos); but sales were still dynamic (0.6% m/m).

 

Eurozone: Industrial production (Dec.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 1%)

  • Except capital goods, momentum in production was positive for all major sectors.
  • Yearly trend has reached 5.2% y/y, comparable to the high pace in activity reached before the crisis.

 

Germany: GDP (Q4-17): 0.6% q/q as expected (prior: 0.8%)

  • Growth has been strong at year end; Eurozone GDP has also been confirmed up by 0.6% q/q in Q4-17.

 

Germany: CPI (Jan.): -1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Rising oil and food prices, while prices for leisure and clothes have weakened.
  • Yearly trend has moderated from 1.6% y/y to 1.4% y/y.

 

Italy: GDP (Q4-17): 0.3% q/q as expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • GDP was up by 1.6% y/y (1.7% y/y in Q3-17); Italy is under a progressive recovery, but it remains fragile.

 

Poland: GDP (Q4-17): 1% q/q vs 1.2% expected (prior: 1.2%)

  • Activity was on an accelerating trend (5.1% y/y after 4.9% y/y in Q3-17).

 

Turkey: Current account (Dec.): -7.7bn USD vs -7.5bn expected (prior: -4.38bn revised from -4.2bn)

  • Rising imports and weaker exports have increased trade and current account deficits.