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Market insight 19.11.2018

US: deteriorating sentiment in housing

US: deteriorating sentiment in housing

US: NAHB housing market index (Nov.): 60 vs 67 expected (prior: 68)

  • Sentiment has strongly deteriorated and the index is back on the 2016 level. The fall was broad-based, and particularly large for future sales of single family houses.
  • The housing market suffers from rising interest rates and high prices.


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Market insight 16.11.2018

US production impacted by hurricanes, but sustained activity in business equipment

US: Industrial production (Oct.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.3%)

  • Activity in utility and mining has contracted over the month due to hurricanes, while activity in manufacturing was firmer, up by 0.3% m/m.
  • Within manufacturing, production of autos was down by 2.8% m/m, but it has accelerated for machinery; production ex-auto was up by 0.5% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
  • Except autos and energy, activity stayed firm in business equipment and construction, this bodes well for Q4 growth.

 

Eurozone: CPI (Oct.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.46%)

  • Inflation has been confirmed, being up by 2.2% y/y on headline and up by 1.1% y/y on core data. Services were up by 1.5% y/y.

 

Germany: Wholesale price (Oct.): 0.3% m/m (prior: 0.4%)

  • Prices were up by 4% y/y after 3.5% y/y the prior month.

 

Italy: Industrial orders (Sept.): -2.9% m/m (prior: 4.9%)

  • Foreign orders have sharply declined, while domestic orders were flat. Industrial sales were flat over the month after a 1.3% m/m rise the prior month.
  • Trend in industry remains weak and fragile given major political uncertainties.

 

Russia: Industrial production (Oct.): 3.7% y/y vs 2.3% expected (prior: 2.1%)

  • Production in mining stayed on a sustained trend, and activity in manufacturing has rebounded during the month.

 

Turkey: Industrial production (Sept.): -2.7% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -1.1%)

  • Production has fallen in all major sectors over the month.
  • Trend remains negative for production, except in energy.
Market insight 15.11.2018

US: mixed regional business surveys, but strong retail sales

US: Empire manufacturing (Nov.): 23.3 vs 20 expected (prior: 21.1)

  • Confidence has strongly rebounded on present and future conditions and particularly on future capex but also on prices paid.

 

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Nov.): 12.9 vs 20 expected (prior: 22.2)

  • The views have decreased on both current and future conditions. Prices paid were on the rise; on future conditions the outlook on capex has increased.

 

US: Retail sales (Oct.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.1%)

  • Core sales (ex food, autos and building materials) were up by 0.3% m/m as seen in the prior month.
  • Consumption has been boosted by higher gasoline and by a rebound in building materials post hurricanes. Past month data were revised lower.
  • These data are in line with GDP growth being up by 3% q/q in Q4, supported by a still dynamic consumption.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov. 10): 216k vs 213k expected (prior: 214k)

  • Continuing claims: 1676 k after 1630 k. The rise was partly due to hurricanes.

 

US: Import price index (Oct.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.5%)

  • Prices were up by 3.5% y/y; prices ex energy were up by 0.2% m/m.
  • Import prices of food and oil have rebounded in Oct.; export prices were up by 0.4% m/m, driven by a rebound in industrial goods (1.4% m/m).

 

US: Business inventories (Sept.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Sales were up by 0.4% m/m; inventory-to-sales ratio stayed stable.

 

UK: Retail sales (Oct.): -0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.8%)

  • Except food, sales have decreased for all items, after two positive months for household goods. Sales have moderated on a yearly basis from 3.3% y/y to 2.2%y/y.
  • Potential major political crisis may weigh on confidence and consumption.

 

Sweden: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 6% vs 6.4% expected (prior: 6.5%)

  • Trend in employment remained positive with a more rapid fall in unemployment ratio than expected.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 11.1% vs 11.2% expected (prior: 10.8%)

  • Unemployed has increased from the prior month.

 

 

Market insight 14.11.2018

Steady inflation trend in the US and the UK; German GDP has contracted more than expected in Q3-18

  • US: CPI (Oct.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
  • The monthly rise was mainly due to energy prices (up by 2.4% m/m), while core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m. Prices of computers have fallen while rents, and also prices of services, remained on a steady 0.3% m/m rise.
  • Headline inflation has slightly increased from 2.3% y/y to 2.5% y/y and core inflation has moderated from 2.2% y/y to 2.1% y/y. Inflation could remain in a 2%-2.5% range in the coming months, due to volatile energy prices. On the short run, the Fed should continue to hike its key rates.

 

  • UK: CPI (Oct.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)
  • Except housing and education, prices have decreased on a monthly basis in all sectors. Core inflation was flat and up by 1.9% y/y. Headline inflation was stable on a yearly trend at 2.4% y/y.
  • Central bank concerns could remain in place due to still high level of PPI and also due to lower slack in labour and rising in wage growth.

 

  • UK: PPI Input prices (Oct.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 1.3%)
  • Oil prices have moderated but prices of materials were up by 0.8% m/m; prices remained high on a yearly basis (10% y/y after 10.5% y/y the prior month), due to oil prices (12% y/y) and to prices of materials (9.7% y/y).

 

  • UK: PPI Output prices (Oct.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)
  • Oil prices were up by 2% m/m and other sectors also up by 0.3% m/m; prices remained high on a yearly basis (3.3% y/y after 3.1% y/y the prior month).

 

  • Sweden: CPI (Oct.): -0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.5%)
  • Prices of food and communication have fallen over the month; core inflation has declined by 0.1% m/m; headline inflation was stable at 2.3% y/y and core inflation has slightly eased from 1.6% y/y to 1.5% y/y.

 

  • Eurozone: Industrial production (Sept.): -0.3% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 1%)
  • Production has fallen mainly due to energy and non-durable consumer goods.
  • Trend in production has eased further from 1.1% y/y to 0.9% y/y.

 

  • Germany: GDP (Q3-18): -0.2% q/q vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.5%)
  • GDP has contracted more than expected due to lower export and consumption in preliminary data. The car industry could also be partly responsible of this fall, but this sector could rebound in the coming months. GDP could also rebound by 0.3%q/q/ 0.4%qq/ in Q4, but German growth is expected to settle below 2% y/y on average in 2018 and 2019.

 

  • Poland: GDP (Q3-18): 1.7% q/q vs 0.9% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 1%)
  • GDP growth was up by 5.1% y/y.

 

  • Poland: CPI (Oct.): 0.4% m/m (prior: 0.2%)
  • The monthly rebound came from a sharp rise in clothes; yearly trend has moderated from 1.9% y/y to 1.8% y/y.

Auch lesenswert

Market insight 16.11.2018

US production impacted by hurricanes, but sustained activity in business equipment

US: Industrial production (Oct.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.3%)

  • Activity in utility and mining has contracted over the month due to hurricanes, while activity in manufacturing was firmer, up by 0.3% m/m.
  • Within manufacturing, production of autos was down by 2.8% m/m, but it has accelerated for machinery; production ex-auto was up by 0.5% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
  • Except autos and energy, activity stayed firm in business equipment and construction, this bodes well for Q4 growth.

 

Eurozone: CPI (Oct.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.46%)

  • Inflation has been confirmed, being up by 2.2% y/y on headline and up by 1.1% y/y on core data. Services were up by 1.5% y/y.

 

Germany: Wholesale price (Oct.): 0.3% m/m (prior: 0.4%)

  • Prices were up by 4% y/y after 3.5% y/y the prior month.

 

Italy: Industrial orders (Sept.): -2.9% m/m (prior: 4.9%)

  • Foreign orders have sharply declined, while domestic orders were flat. Industrial sales were flat over the month after a 1.3% m/m rise the prior month.
  • Trend in industry remains weak and fragile given major political uncertainties.

 

Russia: Industrial production (Oct.): 3.7% y/y vs 2.3% expected (prior: 2.1%)

  • Production in mining stayed on a sustained trend, and activity in manufacturing has rebounded during the month.

 

Turkey: Industrial production (Sept.): -2.7% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -1.1%)

  • Production has fallen in all major sectors over the month.
  • Trend remains negative for production, except in energy.
Market insight 15.11.2018

US: mixed regional business surveys, but strong retail sales

US: Empire manufacturing (Nov.): 23.3 vs 20 expected (prior: 21.1)

  • Confidence has strongly rebounded on present and future conditions and particularly on future capex but also on prices paid.

 

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Nov.): 12.9 vs 20 expected (prior: 22.2)

  • The views have decreased on both current and future conditions. Prices paid were on the rise; on future conditions the outlook on capex has increased.

 

US: Retail sales (Oct.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.1%)

  • Core sales (ex food, autos and building materials) were up by 0.3% m/m as seen in the prior month.
  • Consumption has been boosted by higher gasoline and by a rebound in building materials post hurricanes. Past month data were revised lower.
  • These data are in line with GDP growth being up by 3% q/q in Q4, supported by a still dynamic consumption.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov. 10): 216k vs 213k expected (prior: 214k)

  • Continuing claims: 1676 k after 1630 k. The rise was partly due to hurricanes.

 

US: Import price index (Oct.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.5%)

  • Prices were up by 3.5% y/y; prices ex energy were up by 0.2% m/m.
  • Import prices of food and oil have rebounded in Oct.; export prices were up by 0.4% m/m, driven by a rebound in industrial goods (1.4% m/m).

 

US: Business inventories (Sept.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Sales were up by 0.4% m/m; inventory-to-sales ratio stayed stable.

 

UK: Retail sales (Oct.): -0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.8%)

  • Except food, sales have decreased for all items, after two positive months for household goods. Sales have moderated on a yearly basis from 3.3% y/y to 2.2%y/y.
  • Potential major political crisis may weigh on confidence and consumption.

 

Sweden: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 6% vs 6.4% expected (prior: 6.5%)

  • Trend in employment remained positive with a more rapid fall in unemployment ratio than expected.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 11.1% vs 11.2% expected (prior: 10.8%)

  • Unemployed has increased from the prior month.

 

 

Market insight 14.11.2018

Steady inflation trend in the US and the UK; German GDP has contracted more than expected in Q3-18

  • US: CPI (Oct.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
  • The monthly rise was mainly due to energy prices (up by 2.4% m/m), while core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m. Prices of computers have fallen while rents, and also prices of services, remained on a steady 0.3% m/m rise.
  • Headline inflation has slightly increased from 2.3% y/y to 2.5% y/y and core inflation has moderated from 2.2% y/y to 2.1% y/y. Inflation could remain in a 2%-2.5% range in the coming months, due to volatile energy prices. On the short run, the Fed should continue to hike its key rates.

 

  • UK: CPI (Oct.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)
  • Except housing and education, prices have decreased on a monthly basis in all sectors. Core inflation was flat and up by 1.9% y/y. Headline inflation was stable on a yearly trend at 2.4% y/y.
  • Central bank concerns could remain in place due to still high level of PPI and also due to lower slack in labour and rising in wage growth.

 

  • UK: PPI Input prices (Oct.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 1.3%)
  • Oil prices have moderated but prices of materials were up by 0.8% m/m; prices remained high on a yearly basis (10% y/y after 10.5% y/y the prior month), due to oil prices (12% y/y) and to prices of materials (9.7% y/y).

 

  • UK: PPI Output prices (Oct.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)
  • Oil prices were up by 2% m/m and other sectors also up by 0.3% m/m; prices remained high on a yearly basis (3.3% y/y after 3.1% y/y the prior month).

 

  • Sweden: CPI (Oct.): -0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.5%)
  • Prices of food and communication have fallen over the month; core inflation has declined by 0.1% m/m; headline inflation was stable at 2.3% y/y and core inflation has slightly eased from 1.6% y/y to 1.5% y/y.

 

  • Eurozone: Industrial production (Sept.): -0.3% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 1%)
  • Production has fallen mainly due to energy and non-durable consumer goods.
  • Trend in production has eased further from 1.1% y/y to 0.9% y/y.

 

  • Germany: GDP (Q3-18): -0.2% q/q vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.5%)
  • GDP has contracted more than expected due to lower export and consumption in preliminary data. The car industry could also be partly responsible of this fall, but this sector could rebound in the coming months. GDP could also rebound by 0.3%q/q/ 0.4%qq/ in Q4, but German growth is expected to settle below 2% y/y on average in 2018 and 2019.

 

  • Poland: GDP (Q3-18): 1.7% q/q vs 0.9% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 1%)
  • GDP growth was up by 5.1% y/y.

 

  • Poland: CPI (Oct.): 0.4% m/m (prior: 0.2%)
  • The monthly rebound came from a sharp rise in clothes; yearly trend has moderated from 1.9% y/y to 1.8% y/y.