US: weakening sentiment among small-medium sized firms and firmer PPI due to energy prices
US: NFIB Small Business optimism (July): 98.8 vs 100.5 expected (prior: 100.6)
- After a rebound in the past 3 months, sentiment has weakened on future economic situation, future higher sales and on opportunities to expand.
- Plan to hire people has modestly increased from past month.
- Despite a rebound over past 4 months, the total index remained well below its Feb. level.
US: PPI (July): 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Energy prices were up by 5.3% m/m and trade services up by 0.8% m/m; core PPIs were up by 0.3% m/m, same pace as the prior month.
- Yearly trend has turned less negative, from -0.8% y/y the prior month to -0.4% y/y. Core PPI ex trade costs have rebounded from -0.1% y/y to 0.1% y/y.
- Energy prices and trade services were responsible for the rebound in prices, pointing to rising costs and some pressure on corporate margins.
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (July): 3.9% vs 4.2% expected (prior: 3.9%)
- Claimant count rate: 7.5% after 7.2% the prior month (revised down from 7.3%). Employment has declined by 220 k over the past three months.
- Jobless claims have increased by 94.4 k over the month after a decline by 68.5 k (-28.5 k previous estimate).
- After some improvement in June, negative trend has come back with strong rise in jobless claims.
- The unemployment rate is expected to rebound sharply in H2 if public measures on labor and wage end next October.
UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (June): -1.2% y/y vs -1.1% expected (prior: -0.3%)
- Wages were down in all sectors except the public sector. Furloughed workers have benefited from public support on wages to compensate the loss in income.
UK: BRC retail sales (July): 4.3% y/y (prior: 10.9%)
- Non-food sales remained on a sustained trend over the past two months.
Sweden: Unemployment rate (July): 5.7% (prior: 5.3%)
- Unemployment rate is on a rising trend since Feb. (4%).
Germany: Zew (Aug.): 71.5 vs 55.8 expected (prior: 59.3)
- While sentiment on current situation has deteriorated, expectations have rebounded further among financial community.