US: modest rise of retail sales, but a sharp rebound of household confidence
US: Retail sales (Aug.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.5%)
- The growth pace of sales ex autos, gas and building material has slowed down from 0.8%m/m in July (revised up from 0.5% m/m) to 0.1% m/m; on a 3-month annualized view, these sales were up by 5.4% after 6.8% the prior month.
- The slowdown over the month was due to autos, furniture and clothes; internet sales stayed dynamic (0.7% m/m).
- After booming consumption on Q2, some moderation is expected by Q3, but growth should remain around 3%qoq.
US: Industrial production (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.1%)
- Manufacturing production has rebounded thanks to the auto sector and production of electricity.
- Capacity utilization has increased from past month.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Sept.): 100.8 vs 96.6 expected (prior: 96.2)
- Expectations and views on current situation have both rebounded from the prior month.
- Sentiment on personal financial situation, economy and about "government doing a good job" has strongly rebounded and was back to its previous highs.
- Willingness to buy large items has increased again, boding well for future consumption.
US: Business inventories (July): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Inventories have increased in auto sector; sales were up by 0.2% m/m; the inventory to sales ratio has slightly increased for wholesalers and manufacturers.
Sweden: CPI (Aug.): -0.2% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.5%)
- Inflation has moderated from 2.1% y/y to 2% y/y. Core inflation was on a stable trend (2.2% y/y).
Russia: The central bank has increased its key rates from 7.25% to 7.50%
- As inflation has come back to 4% more rapidly than expected, the central bank has surprisingly increased its key rates and said it will consider further rate hikes according to future inflation and growth developments.
Turkey: Current account (July): -1.75bn USD vs -1.8bn expected (prior: -3.04bn revised from -2.97bn)
- Balance of services in surplus has reduced widening trade deficit on goods.