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Market insight 15.02.2019

US: weak industrial production and mixed empire manufacturing

US: weak industrial production and mixed empire manufacturing

US: Industrial production (Jan): -0.6% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.3%)

  • The decline in IP was driven by a 0.9% drop in manufacturing output, which was largely driven by an 8.8% m/m plunge in motor vehicle output, which reversed a 4.3% surge in December. But there were also signs of weakness in other sectors, which machinery and electronics production both declining.
  • With the latest retail sales data, this provides further reason to think that the Fed won't be raising rates any time soon.

 

US: Empire manufacturing (Feb): 8.8 vs 7 expected (prior: 3.9)

  • While the index rose in Feb, the composition was mixed as the new orders index increased, but the shipments and employment components both declined. The prices paid measure decreased and the 6 months-ahead business conditions index rebounded sharply by 14.5pt to +32.3.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Feb P): 95.5 vs 93.7 expected (prior: 91.2)

  • Sentiment has rebounded more than expected; sentiment on current situation has increased lower than expected, while expectations rose higher than expected.

 

US: Import price index (Jan): -0.5% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -1%)

  • The decline reflected a drop in the fuel category (-3.2% m/m).
  • Overall, the report was soft as consumer goods import prices fell at their fastest pace in 7 months and auto prices fell by 0.2% m/m.

 

UK: Retail sales (Jan): 1.2% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -1% revised from -1.3%)

  • Sales ex fuel were up by 1.2% m/m vs 0.2% m/m expected (-1% the prior month); Internet sales have rebounded by 3.7% m/m and represent 18.8% of total sales (prior: 19.8%).
  • Overall, retail sales rebounded as clothing discounts attracted shoppers but downside risks could continue to weigh on consumption as political scenario remains unclear.

 

Spain: CPI (Jan F): -1.7% m/m as expected (prior: -0.5%)

  • On a y/y basis: 1% as expected (prior: 1.2%).
  • Clothing and footwear have driven trend in headline prices lower (-15.4% m/m), while transportation rose by 0.3% m/m.


Meistgelesene News

Market insight 19.02.2019

US NAHB edged higher, sentiment in Germany has improved (Zew index) but remains in negative territory

US: NAHB housing market index (Feb): 62 vs 59 expected (prior: 58)

  • Sentiment in housing has rebounded mainly on higher future sales and higher prospective buyers traffic after interest rates have moderated.

 

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Dec.): 4% as expected (prior: 4%)

  • Claimant count rate was stable at 2.8%; jobless claims were up by 14.2 k after 20.2 k the prior month.
  • Trend in labor looks stable for several months.

 

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Dec.): 3.4% y/y vs 3.5% expected (prior: 3.4%)

  • Trend remained sustained on wage growth; wages in construction continue to show the strongest yearly rise.

 

Germany: Zew (Feb.): -13.4 vs -13.6 expected (prior: -15)

  • Expectations continue to regularly improve from October depressed levels, but at a slow pace. On the opposite, sentiment on the current situation has weakened further.
  • The economic situation remains fragile and the recovery could stay moderate as large sectors (banks, industry and exports) remained under pressure.

 

Italy: Industrial orders (Dec.): -1.8% m/m (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.2%)

  • Industrial sales were down by 3.5% m/m after -0.1% m/m the prior month. Momentum has sharply deteriorated for orders in all sectors; foreign orders have contracted by 7.4% m/m, while domestic orders were up by 2.5% m/m.
  • Activity in the eurozone sharply weakened at year end, and Italy looks at risk as its GDP has contracted by Q4

 

Switzerland: Trade balance (Jan.): 3.04 Bn CHF (prior: 1.96Bn)

  • Real exports: 0.6% m/m after -4.3% m/m the prior month; real imports: 4.8% m/m after 3.9% m/m the prior month.

 

Sweden: CPI (Jan.): -1% m/m vs -0.7% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Prices have declined in all sectors and particularly in energy and for clothes.
  • Trend has moderated from 2% y/y the prior month to 1.9% y/y and core inflation from 1.5% y/y to 1.4% y/y.
  • With inflation below target, the central bank will have to wait to normalize further its interest rates.
Market insight 21.02.2019

Manufacturing sector has lost momentum while service sector is encouraging in the US and eurozone

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb P): 53.7 vs 54.8 expected (prior: 54.9)

  • The surveys suggest that US industry has finally succumbed to the global industry slowdown in Q1, having been resilient throughout 2018.
  • Businesses that experienced a soft patch for production cited a range of factors holding back growth, including adverse weather, worries about the global economic outlook and ongoing international supply chain uncertainty.

 

US: Markit Services PMI (Feb P): 56.2 vs 54.3 expected (prior: 54.2)

  • Private sector output growth regained momentum in February, with a robust upturn in service sector activity more than offsetting the slowdown reported by manufacturing firms.
  • Service providers commented on higher levels of business and consumer spending during February, as highlighted by the strongest overall expansion of incoming new work since last September.

 

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Feb): -4.1 vs 14 expected (prior: 17)

  • The index fell by its largest margin since 2011. The composition was slightly less negative, as the employment component increased, but the shipments and new orders components both fell to their lowest levels since 2016.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Feb 16): 216k vs 228k expected (prior: 239k)

  • Continuing claims: 1725k vs 1743k expected (prior: 1780k revised from 1773k)
  • The four-week moving average of claims increased by 4k to 236k. The recent rise in jobless claims end January was related to past government shutdown.

 

US: Durable goods orders (Dec P): 1.2% m/m vs 1.7% expected (prior: 1% revised from 0.7%)

  • The report showed somewhat softer core capex momentum, as capex orders declined but shipments rose.
  • Revisions to November core capex orders were negative.
  • The weakness of underlying durable goods orders in December suggests that equipment investment growth slowed further in the Q4.

 

US: Existing home sales (Jan): 4.94M vs 5M expected (prior: 5M revised from 4.99M)

  • On a m/m basis: -1.2% vs 0.2% expected (prior: -4% revised from -6.4%)
  • Existing home sales continued their decline in January after weak data over 2018 and data show no improvement in the share of first-time homebuyers. This implies that prices remain too high for these prospective homeowners to enter the market.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Feb P): 49.2 vs 50.3 expected (prior: 50.5)

  • Germany: 47.6 vs 49.8 expected (prior: 49.7)
  • France: 51.4 vs 51 expected (prior: 51.2)
  • The decline in the manufacturing to 49.2 - signaling contraction for the first time since mid-2013.
  • Export orders in manufacturing fell further to a six-year low, driven by a large decline in Germany on the back of concerns about weaker demand from Asia.

 

Eurozone: PMI Services (Feb P): 52.3 vs 51.3 expected (prior: 51.2)

  • Germany: 55.1 vs 52.9 expected (prior: 53)
  • France: 49.8 vs 48.5 expected (prior: 47.8)
  • At the euro-zone level, there is a sharp divergence between the performances of the services and manufacturing sectors. While the services PMI rose to a three-month high, the manufacturing index fell to a 69-month low.
  • Also, employment plans rose in services, which bodes well for the outlook for private consumption and domestic demand.

 

Germany: CPI (Jan F): -1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • On a y/y basis: 1.7% as expected (prior: 1.7%)
  • Transport prices declined by 1.9% m/m, while leisure decreased by -5.2% m/m

 

France: Business confidence (Feb): 103 vs 102 expected (prior: 103)

  • Manufacturing confidence: 103 as expected (prior: 103)
  • Confidence has stabilized thanks to production outlook less negative than past month and inventories slightly higher than past month.

 

France: CPI (Jan F): -0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • On a y/y basis: 1.4% as expected (prior: 1.9%)
  • Manufactured products (-2.1% m/m) and energy (-1.2% m/m) have driven trend in headline prices lower.

 

Switzerland: M3 (Jan): 3.4% y/y (prior: 3.1%)

  • Trend in M3 has slightly accelerated but savings deposits have continued to contract, while time deposits rose by 7% (prior: -4%).

 

Italy: CPI (Jan F): 0.9% m/m as expected (prior: 1.2%)

  • Food and beverages rose by 1% m/m, while transportation prices declined by -1.4% m/m.
Market insight 14.02.2019

Unexpected plunge in US retail sales, German Q4 GDP lower than expected

US: Retail sales (Dec): -1.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

  • Headline sales posted the largest drop in nine years. Excluding autos, which posted a strong 1.0% gain in December, sales plummeted an even sharper 1.8%. That's the worst m/m growth since 2008.
  • The real weakness was in the underlying sales figures; after a 1.0% gain in November, control group sales plunged by 1.7%. Weakness in the report was broad-based across categories, with sales falling in all of the major categories that compose the retail control group.
  • The largest declines were seen in sporting goods stores (-4.9%), miscellaneous store retailers (-4.1%), non-store retailers (-3.9%), and health and personal care stores (-2.0%). Outside of that core group, the only gains were seen in auto sales (up 1.0%) and building materials (up 0.3%).
  • With this figure, the Fed should remain patient on key rates.

 

US: PPI (Jan): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.2%)

  • Excluding the volatile food and energy components, underlying inflationary pressures remain firm.
  • Final demand for services, particularly trade services, rebounded in the month - a sign that firming wage pressures may be progressing into a broad pickup in price growth.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Feb 9): 239k vs 225k expected (prior: 235k revised from 234k)

  • Continuing claims: 1773k vs 1740k expected (prior: 1736k)

 

Germany: GDP (Q4 P): 0% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • On a y/y basis: 0.6% vs 0.7% expected (prior: 1.1%)
  • In Q3, the contraction was largely caused by a huge slump in output from the auto industry as new emission standards created widespread disruption.
  • While the there is no breakdown at this stage, the press release says that the decline was mostly due to weak net exports.
  • However, it also concedes that household consumption increased only "slightly". In contrast, fixed investment held up relatively well, particularly in construction.
  • German Industry will continue to struggle if external demand is not stronger.

 

Eurozone: GDP (Q4 P): 0.2% q/q as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • On a y/y basis: 1.2% as expected (prior: 1.2%)
  • The second estimate of euro-zone GDP confirmed that the economy increased by only 0.2%. There is still no expenditure breakdown for the aggregate figure, but we know from the national data that both external and domestic demand weighed on activity.

 

Turkey: Current account (Dec): -1.44bn USD vs -1.50bn expected (prior: 1.10bn revised from 0.99bn)

  • Turkey posted a current-account deficit after running a surplus for four straight months.

 

Turkey: Industrial production (Dec): -1.4% m/m (prior: -0.3%)

  • On a y/y basis: -9.8% vs -7.5% expected (prior: -6.6% revised from -6.5%).
  • Durable consumer goods declined by 7.4% m/m, while capital goods decreased by 2.2% m/m.

Auch lesenswert

Market insight 21.02.2019

Manufacturing sector has lost momentum while service sector is encouraging in the US and eurozone

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb P): 53.7 vs 54.8 expected (prior: 54.9)

  • The surveys suggest that US industry has finally succumbed to the global industry slowdown in Q1, having been resilient throughout 2018.
  • Businesses that experienced a soft patch for production cited a range of factors holding back growth, including adverse weather, worries about the global economic outlook and ongoing international supply chain uncertainty.

 

US: Markit Services PMI (Feb P): 56.2 vs 54.3 expected (prior: 54.2)

  • Private sector output growth regained momentum in February, with a robust upturn in service sector activity more than offsetting the slowdown reported by manufacturing firms.
  • Service providers commented on higher levels of business and consumer spending during February, as highlighted by the strongest overall expansion of incoming new work since last September.

 

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Feb): -4.1 vs 14 expected (prior: 17)

  • The index fell by its largest margin since 2011. The composition was slightly less negative, as the employment component increased, but the shipments and new orders components both fell to their lowest levels since 2016.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Feb 16): 216k vs 228k expected (prior: 239k)

  • Continuing claims: 1725k vs 1743k expected (prior: 1780k revised from 1773k)
  • The four-week moving average of claims increased by 4k to 236k. The recent rise in jobless claims end January was related to past government shutdown.

 

US: Durable goods orders (Dec P): 1.2% m/m vs 1.7% expected (prior: 1% revised from 0.7%)

  • The report showed somewhat softer core capex momentum, as capex orders declined but shipments rose.
  • Revisions to November core capex orders were negative.
  • The weakness of underlying durable goods orders in December suggests that equipment investment growth slowed further in the Q4.

 

US: Existing home sales (Jan): 4.94M vs 5M expected (prior: 5M revised from 4.99M)

  • On a m/m basis: -1.2% vs 0.2% expected (prior: -4% revised from -6.4%)
  • Existing home sales continued their decline in January after weak data over 2018 and data show no improvement in the share of first-time homebuyers. This implies that prices remain too high for these prospective homeowners to enter the market.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Feb P): 49.2 vs 50.3 expected (prior: 50.5)

  • Germany: 47.6 vs 49.8 expected (prior: 49.7)
  • France: 51.4 vs 51 expected (prior: 51.2)
  • The decline in the manufacturing to 49.2 - signaling contraction for the first time since mid-2013.
  • Export orders in manufacturing fell further to a six-year low, driven by a large decline in Germany on the back of concerns about weaker demand from Asia.

 

Eurozone: PMI Services (Feb P): 52.3 vs 51.3 expected (prior: 51.2)

  • Germany: 55.1 vs 52.9 expected (prior: 53)
  • France: 49.8 vs 48.5 expected (prior: 47.8)
  • At the euro-zone level, there is a sharp divergence between the performances of the services and manufacturing sectors. While the services PMI rose to a three-month high, the manufacturing index fell to a 69-month low.
  • Also, employment plans rose in services, which bodes well for the outlook for private consumption and domestic demand.

 

Germany: CPI (Jan F): -1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • On a y/y basis: 1.7% as expected (prior: 1.7%)
  • Transport prices declined by 1.9% m/m, while leisure decreased by -5.2% m/m

 

France: Business confidence (Feb): 103 vs 102 expected (prior: 103)

  • Manufacturing confidence: 103 as expected (prior: 103)
  • Confidence has stabilized thanks to production outlook less negative than past month and inventories slightly higher than past month.

 

France: CPI (Jan F): -0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • On a y/y basis: 1.4% as expected (prior: 1.9%)
  • Manufactured products (-2.1% m/m) and energy (-1.2% m/m) have driven trend in headline prices lower.

 

Switzerland: M3 (Jan): 3.4% y/y (prior: 3.1%)

  • Trend in M3 has slightly accelerated but savings deposits have continued to contract, while time deposits rose by 7% (prior: -4%).

 

Italy: CPI (Jan F): 0.9% m/m as expected (prior: 1.2%)

  • Food and beverages rose by 1% m/m, while transportation prices declined by -1.4% m/m.
Market insight 20.02.2019

Eurozone consumer confidence rose for a second month

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Feb A): -7.4 vs -7.7 expected (prior: -7.9)

  • Consumer confidence rose for a second month after an almost non-stop run of disappointing releases since 2017.

 

Germany: PPI (Jan): 0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.4%)

  • On a y/y basis: 2.6% vs 2.2% expected (prior: 2.7%)
  • Capital goods rose by 0.6% m/m. while energy prices increased by 0.6% m/m.
Market insight 19.02.2019

US NAHB edged higher, sentiment in Germany has improved (Zew index) but remains in negative territory

US: NAHB housing market index (Feb): 62 vs 59 expected (prior: 58)

  • Sentiment in housing has rebounded mainly on higher future sales and higher prospective buyers traffic after interest rates have moderated.

 

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Dec.): 4% as expected (prior: 4%)

  • Claimant count rate was stable at 2.8%; jobless claims were up by 14.2 k after 20.2 k the prior month.
  • Trend in labor looks stable for several months.

 

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Dec.): 3.4% y/y vs 3.5% expected (prior: 3.4%)

  • Trend remained sustained on wage growth; wages in construction continue to show the strongest yearly rise.

 

Germany: Zew (Feb.): -13.4 vs -13.6 expected (prior: -15)

  • Expectations continue to regularly improve from October depressed levels, but at a slow pace. On the opposite, sentiment on the current situation has weakened further.
  • The economic situation remains fragile and the recovery could stay moderate as large sectors (banks, industry and exports) remained under pressure.

 

Italy: Industrial orders (Dec.): -1.8% m/m (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.2%)

  • Industrial sales were down by 3.5% m/m after -0.1% m/m the prior month. Momentum has sharply deteriorated for orders in all sectors; foreign orders have contracted by 7.4% m/m, while domestic orders were up by 2.5% m/m.
  • Activity in the eurozone sharply weakened at year end, and Italy looks at risk as its GDP has contracted by Q4

 

Switzerland: Trade balance (Jan.): 3.04 Bn CHF (prior: 1.96Bn)

  • Real exports: 0.6% m/m after -4.3% m/m the prior month; real imports: 4.8% m/m after 3.9% m/m the prior month.

 

Sweden: CPI (Jan.): -1% m/m vs -0.7% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Prices have declined in all sectors and particularly in energy and for clothes.
  • Trend has moderated from 2% y/y the prior month to 1.9% y/y and core inflation from 1.5% y/y to 1.4% y/y.
  • With inflation below target, the central bank will have to wait to normalize further its interest rates.