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Market insight 21.02.2020

Flash PMIs dropped markedly in the US but edged up in eurozone

Flash PMIs dropped markedly in the US but edged up in eurozone

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb. Prel.): 50.8 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 51.9)

  • The manufacturing PMI just avoided a decline into contraction but fell to the lowest since August.

US: Markit Services PMI (Feb. Prel.): 49.4 vs 53.4 expected (prior: 53.4)

  • Business confidence in the service sector slumped to the lowest level since October 2013 as companies have become more worried about the coronavirus and its impact notably on the travel and tourism sectors. The new business index dropped from 52.5 to 49.7, the lowest since October 2009.

US: Existing home sales (Jan.): 5.46M vs 5.44M expected (prior: 5.53M revised from 5.54M)

  • Existing home sales edged lower (-1.3% m/m) but remain at solid levels, supported by a robust labor market and low mortgage rates.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Feb P): 49.1 vs 47.4 expected (prior: 47.9)

  • Sentiment surprised on the upside in February led by Germany despite fears that the coronavirus-related disruptions to supply chains and demand in Asia will drive activity lower.
  • Easing of tensions between US and China has probably been the main driver behind the positive surprise.
  • However, the details of the survey suggest a weaker picture (new export orders fell sharply) and the impact of the virus might not have fully hit yet.

Eurozone: PMI Services (Feb P): 52.8 vs 52.3 expected (prior: 52.5)

  • Service sentiment rose, mainly due the upside surprise in France (52.6 vs 51.3 expected). 
  • However, the outlook remains highly uncertain, notably in respect to the potential disruptions to travel, tourism and demand arising from the coronavirus outbreak.

 

UK: PMI Manufacturing (Feb P): 51.9 vs 49.7 expected (prior: 50)

  • Sentiment jumped in February and signal the strongest improvement in business conditions since April 2019.
  • The expansion of manufacturing was supported by a sustained rebound in client spending since the start of 2020, with the latest survey pointing to the fastest rise in new work since March 2019.

UK: PMI Services (Feb P): 53.3 vs 53.4 expected (prior: 53.9)

  • Service sentiment dropped slightly but remained well above 50.
  • The slowdown partly reflected weaker demand from abroad, as signaled by a renewed fall in export orders in February. Companies reporting a fall in overseas sales often cited a marked reduction in new work from clients in Asia.

 

Eurozone: CPI (Jan F.): 1.4% m/m as expected (prior: 1.3%)

  • Core inflation fell to 1.1% y/y, down from 1.3%.
  • Supercore inflation, which excludes the prices of goods and services that show little response to the business cycle as well as package holidays, slowed to 1.38% from 1.46%

 


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Market insight 27.02.2020

US firmer core orders and improving sentiment in the eurozone, but before the COVID-19 shock

US: GDP (Q4-19): 2.1% q/q as expected (prior: 2.1%)

  • Just minor changes in the details by sector. Firmer residential investment but lower equipment; lower inventories but higher net trade contribution.
  • Private domestic demand was up by only 1.3% q/q.
  • Recent developments put Q1 growth under risk, being significantly lower than 2%.

 

US: Durable goods orders (Jan.): -0.2% m/m vs -1.4% expected (prior: 2.9% revised from 2.4%)

  • Preliminary data have pointed on a less severe fall than expected, but data are traditionally highly volatile.
  • Core orders (orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft) have increased by 1.1% m/m after -0.5% m/m the prior month. Orders for machinery were firmer than the prior month, but highly volatile.
  • Shipments were down by 0.2% m/m and inventories flat.
  • Final data could revert the positive surprise, if disruption gains further.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Feb.22): 219k vs 212k expected (prior: 211k revised from 210k)

  • Continuing claims: 1724 k after 1733 k past week. Data tend to increase around holidays period (Presidents Day).

 

US: Pending home sales (Jan.): 5.2% m/m vs 3% expected (prior: -4.3% revised from -4.9%)

  • Sales have rebounded in all districts, except one. Sales remained on a sustained trend globally (5.7% y/y).

 

Eurozone: M3 (Jan.): 5.2% y/y vs 5.3% expected (prior: 4.9% revised from 5%)

  • M3 growth pace has slightly accelerated, but M1 and M2 saw slightly slower pace; credit to private sector stayed on a stable trend (3.4% y/y).

 

Eurozone: Business climate (Feb.): -6.1 vs -7.2 expected (prior: -7 revised from -7.3)

  • Sentiment was slightly less negative on orders and past production; some fall could be seen later, related to the COVID-19 developments.

 

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Feb.): -6.6 as expected (prior: -8.1)

  • Consumers were less negative on their financial situation, global economic environment and the unemployment situation.

 

Eurozone: Service confidence (Feb.): 11.2 vs 11 expected (prior: 11)

  • Sentiment has increased on demand and business situation.
  • Separately, sentiment in retail has deteriorated, while it has moderated on construction.

 

Italy: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 111.4 as expected (prior: 111.8)

  • Sentiment has slightly eased on lower economic and personal situation.

 

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Feb.): 100.6 vs 99.4 expected (prior: 100 revised from 99.9)

  • While sentiment has improved on investment and intermediary goods sectors, it has weakened for consumer goods.
  • The business confidence has stabilized after a fall in 2017-2018; downside risks are building related to the COVID-19.

 

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 98.5 (prior: 92.7 revised from 92.6)

  • Sentiment has improved, mainly driven by improving personal financial situation.

 

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Feb.): 104.7 (prior: 102.3 revised from 101.8)

  • A sharp rebound in business confidence.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (Jan.): 0.9% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from 0.5%)

  • A strong rebound after downwards revisions to prior month data. Yearly trend stayed quite stable at 2.7% y/y.

 

Norway: Retail sales (Jan.): 0.5% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: -2.1% revised from -2%)

  • Yearly trend has deteriorated from -0.6% y/y to -1.6% y/y.
Market insight 26.02.2020

Accelerating trend in US new houses sold

US: New home sales (Jan.): 764k vs 718k expected (prior: 708k revised from 694k)

  • Past month data were revised up and Jan. data came stronger than expected.
  • Sales were stronger in all districts and inventories have decreased.
  • In parallel, prices have sharply rebounded, after prior month moderation: median prices were up by 14% y/y and mean prices of houses sold up b 11.4% y/y.

 

Norway: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 3.9% vs 4% expected (prior: 4%)

  • Unemployed has marginally eased, after a rise past month; the unemployment ratio was back to its previous level, showing some stabilization after a rising trend.

 

France: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 104 vs 103 expected (prior: 104)

  • Sentiment stayed stable; concerns on personal financial situation, but less worries on unemployment.
Market insight 25.02.2020

US consumer confidence marginally higher, but after prior month downwards revisions.

 

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Feb.): 130.7 vs 132.2 expected (prior: 130.4 revised from 131.6)

  • Index was moderately higher as prior month data were revised lower. The index remained just below the highs seen in past quarters.
  • Expectations have increased, while sentiment on current situation has decreased, back to its Nov. level.
  • Concerns on current situation came from stabilizing and no more improving economic conditions and on rising difficulties to get a job.
  • Expectations have increased on business conditions, rising income and stable employment.
  • Willingness to buy items (autos, houses and major appliances) have increased from past month.

 

US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (Dec.): 0.43% y/y vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.47% revised from 0.48%)

  • Prices were up by 2.85% y/y after 2.54% y/y the prior month.

 

US: House price Index MoM (FHFA) (Dec.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

  • Monthly changes on prices have accelerated; prices were up by 5.2% y/y.

 

France: Business confidence (Feb.): 105 vs 103 expected (prior: 105 revised from 104)

  • Sentiment in manufacturing stayed stable, after modest upward revision to past month data.
  • Opinions were less negative on production and orders; nevertheless, views on foreign orders have slightly deteriorated.
  • Separately, confidence in services and trade has slightly increased and stayed stable in construction.
  • Sentiment in industry has stabilized at a decent level.

 

Germany: GDP (Q4-19): 0% q/q as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Initial data were confirmed and details by sector revealed: consumption was flat on Q4, and investment in equipment has sharply fallen (-2% q/q), as well as exports and negative exports contribution; the rise in inventories and in public consumption and investment enabled to balance growth in Q4.
  • Public spending counterbalanced the fall in private domestic demand.

 

Poland: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 5.5% as expected (prior: 5.2%)

  • Unemployment is on a rising trend over past three months.

Auch lesenswert

Market insight 27.02.2020

US firmer core orders and improving sentiment in the eurozone, but before the COVID-19 shock

US: GDP (Q4-19): 2.1% q/q as expected (prior: 2.1%)

  • Just minor changes in the details by sector. Firmer residential investment but lower equipment; lower inventories but higher net trade contribution.
  • Private domestic demand was up by only 1.3% q/q.
  • Recent developments put Q1 growth under risk, being significantly lower than 2%.

 

US: Durable goods orders (Jan.): -0.2% m/m vs -1.4% expected (prior: 2.9% revised from 2.4%)

  • Preliminary data have pointed on a less severe fall than expected, but data are traditionally highly volatile.
  • Core orders (orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft) have increased by 1.1% m/m after -0.5% m/m the prior month. Orders for machinery were firmer than the prior month, but highly volatile.
  • Shipments were down by 0.2% m/m and inventories flat.
  • Final data could revert the positive surprise, if disruption gains further.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Feb.22): 219k vs 212k expected (prior: 211k revised from 210k)

  • Continuing claims: 1724 k after 1733 k past week. Data tend to increase around holidays period (Presidents Day).

 

US: Pending home sales (Jan.): 5.2% m/m vs 3% expected (prior: -4.3% revised from -4.9%)

  • Sales have rebounded in all districts, except one. Sales remained on a sustained trend globally (5.7% y/y).

 

Eurozone: M3 (Jan.): 5.2% y/y vs 5.3% expected (prior: 4.9% revised from 5%)

  • M3 growth pace has slightly accelerated, but M1 and M2 saw slightly slower pace; credit to private sector stayed on a stable trend (3.4% y/y).

 

Eurozone: Business climate (Feb.): -6.1 vs -7.2 expected (prior: -7 revised from -7.3)

  • Sentiment was slightly less negative on orders and past production; some fall could be seen later, related to the COVID-19 developments.

 

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Feb.): -6.6 as expected (prior: -8.1)

  • Consumers were less negative on their financial situation, global economic environment and the unemployment situation.

 

Eurozone: Service confidence (Feb.): 11.2 vs 11 expected (prior: 11)

  • Sentiment has increased on demand and business situation.
  • Separately, sentiment in retail has deteriorated, while it has moderated on construction.

 

Italy: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 111.4 as expected (prior: 111.8)

  • Sentiment has slightly eased on lower economic and personal situation.

 

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Feb.): 100.6 vs 99.4 expected (prior: 100 revised from 99.9)

  • While sentiment has improved on investment and intermediary goods sectors, it has weakened for consumer goods.
  • The business confidence has stabilized after a fall in 2017-2018; downside risks are building related to the COVID-19.

 

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 98.5 (prior: 92.7 revised from 92.6)

  • Sentiment has improved, mainly driven by improving personal financial situation.

 

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Feb.): 104.7 (prior: 102.3 revised from 101.8)

  • A sharp rebound in business confidence.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (Jan.): 0.9% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from 0.5%)

  • A strong rebound after downwards revisions to prior month data. Yearly trend stayed quite stable at 2.7% y/y.

 

Norway: Retail sales (Jan.): 0.5% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: -2.1% revised from -2%)

  • Yearly trend has deteriorated from -0.6% y/y to -1.6% y/y.
Market insight 26.02.2020

Accelerating trend in US new houses sold

US: New home sales (Jan.): 764k vs 718k expected (prior: 708k revised from 694k)

  • Past month data were revised up and Jan. data came stronger than expected.
  • Sales were stronger in all districts and inventories have decreased.
  • In parallel, prices have sharply rebounded, after prior month moderation: median prices were up by 14% y/y and mean prices of houses sold up b 11.4% y/y.

 

Norway: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 3.9% vs 4% expected (prior: 4%)

  • Unemployed has marginally eased, after a rise past month; the unemployment ratio was back to its previous level, showing some stabilization after a rising trend.

 

France: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 104 vs 103 expected (prior: 104)

  • Sentiment stayed stable; concerns on personal financial situation, but less worries on unemployment.
Market insight 25.02.2020

US consumer confidence marginally higher, but after prior month downwards revisions.

 

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Feb.): 130.7 vs 132.2 expected (prior: 130.4 revised from 131.6)

  • Index was moderately higher as prior month data were revised lower. The index remained just below the highs seen in past quarters.
  • Expectations have increased, while sentiment on current situation has decreased, back to its Nov. level.
  • Concerns on current situation came from stabilizing and no more improving economic conditions and on rising difficulties to get a job.
  • Expectations have increased on business conditions, rising income and stable employment.
  • Willingness to buy items (autos, houses and major appliances) have increased from past month.

 

US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (Dec.): 0.43% y/y vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.47% revised from 0.48%)

  • Prices were up by 2.85% y/y after 2.54% y/y the prior month.

 

US: House price Index MoM (FHFA) (Dec.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

  • Monthly changes on prices have accelerated; prices were up by 5.2% y/y.

 

France: Business confidence (Feb.): 105 vs 103 expected (prior: 105 revised from 104)

  • Sentiment in manufacturing stayed stable, after modest upward revision to past month data.
  • Opinions were less negative on production and orders; nevertheless, views on foreign orders have slightly deteriorated.
  • Separately, confidence in services and trade has slightly increased and stayed stable in construction.
  • Sentiment in industry has stabilized at a decent level.

 

Germany: GDP (Q4-19): 0% q/q as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Initial data were confirmed and details by sector revealed: consumption was flat on Q4, and investment in equipment has sharply fallen (-2% q/q), as well as exports and negative exports contribution; the rise in inventories and in public consumption and investment enabled to balance growth in Q4.
  • Public spending counterbalanced the fall in private domestic demand.

 

Poland: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 5.5% as expected (prior: 5.2%)

  • Unemployment is on a rising trend over past three months.