US: Retail sales (March): 1.6% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Core sales: 1% m/m vs 0.4% m/m expected (-0.3% m/m the prior month).
- Sales have strongly rebounded from low Feb. data in all major sectors. While trend remained high for gasoline, auto sales, furniture, clothes and food have strongly rebounded.
- On average on Q1, consumption had been more sustained than expected, leading to a Q1 GDP probably not too far from 2% q/q (to be published next week).
US: Initial jobless claims (Apr.13): 192k vs 205k expected (prior: 197k revised from 196k)
- Continuing claims: 1653 k after 1716 K.
- Trend in labor remained very strong.
US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr.): 52.4 vs 52.8 expected (prior: 52.4)
- According to flash estimate, a modest rise in sentiment on production and new orders, but a stable global index.
US: Markit Services PMI (Apr.): 52.9 vs 55 expected (prior: 55.3)
- Contrary to manufacturing, confidence has surprisingly eased in services according to first estimate. The index has come back to the bottom of its 2018 range (52.9-56), being traditionally highly volatile. The index level is still in line with a 2%-2.5% growth scenario.
US: Philadelphia Fed. (Apr.): 8.5 vs 11 expected (prior: 13.7)
- Sentiment on current and future activity has weakened. On a positive note, sentiment on new orders has increased on both current and future situation. Future capex has also strongly increased.
US: Business inventories (Feb.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)
- Sales were moderate in Feb. (0.1% m/m), but the situation has improved in March.
Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Apr.): 47.8 vs 48 expected (prior: 47.5)
- Sentiment has slightly increased, but less than expected in the flash estimate.
- The rebound is modest in Germany, while sentiment has slightly eroded in France.
- These data point towards a still fragile stabilization entering in Q2.
Eurozone: PMI Services (Apr.): 52.5 vs 53.1 expected (prior: 53.3)
- Flash estimate has disappointed in services, but estimates for France and Germany have both increased from past month and were up more than expected; worries could come from peripherals, and particularly Italy.
Germany: PPI (March): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1%)
- Prices of electricity and gas have fallen after a large rebound in Jan.; the yearly trend in PPIs has moderated from 2.6% y/y to 2.4% y/y.
UK: Retail sales (March): 1.1% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.4%)
- Sales of food, clothes and household goods have rebounded after mixed figures in Feb. (revised up). Separately, internet sales have rebounded after moderate trend in Jan.-Feb.
- Retail sales were volatile but quite resilient in Q1 despite high political uncertainties; a strong labor market and moderate inflation have underpinned consumption trend.
Switzerland: Trade balance (Macrh): 3.18 Bn CHF (prior: 2.94Bn)
- Real exports: 0.1% m/m; real imports: -3.2% m/m
Italy: Industrial orders (Feb.): -2.7% m/m (prior: 2.1% revised from 1.8%)
- Industrial sales: 0.3% m/m after 3% m/m the prior month.
- Foreign orders have sharply decreased, as well as foreign sales. After an improvement in Jan., trend in orders have deteriorated again in Feb. for all sectors except electronic and electric equipment.
Russia: Retail sales (March): 1.6% y/y as expected (prior: 2%)
- Food and non-food sales have shown some moderation in their yearly trend.
Russia: Unemployment rate (March): 4.7% vs 4.9% expected (prior: 4.9%)
- Unemployment has eased after a rebound in past quarter.
Russia: Real wages (March): 0% y/y vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0% revised from 0.7%)
- Flat trend in real wages.