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Market insight 11.10.2019

US consumer confidence on the rise

US consumer confidence on the rise

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Oct.): 96 vs 92 expected (prior: 93.2)

  • Preliminary data have revealed a strong rebound of sentiment on current conditions, but only a modest rise of expectations.

  • Current conditions index was back to its highest level of the year; expectations were on the middle of the range seen this year.

  • Sentiment has improved on personal finance; expectations on future economic situation and employment remained moderate below Q2; willingness to buy large items has significantly rebounded.

  • Inflation expectations have moderated: from 2.8% y/y to 2.5% y/y at 1-year; from 2.4% y/ to 2.2% y/y at 5-10y

 

Germany: CPI (Sept.): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Despite a strong rebound in prices of clothes, inflation has declined on lower energy prices.

  • Yearly trend has moderated from 1% y/y the prior month to 0.9% y/y.

 

Spain: CPI (Sept.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • A monthly rebound of clothes, but prices in other sectors were flat or slightly negative.

  • Yearly trend has moderated further, from 0.4% y/y the prior month to 0.2% y/y.

 


Meistgelesene News

Market insight 17.10.2019

US: lower than expected housing starts, Philly Fed and industrial production

US: Housing starts (Sept.): 1256k vs 1320k expected (prior: 1386k revised from 1364k)

  • Building permits: 1387 k after 1425 k prior month. While data for multifamily houses have plunged, single family data were stable over the month for both housing starts and building permits.

  • Total housing starts were highly volatile over the past two months, but absolute numbers remained close to Q2 levels.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Oct.12): 214k vs 215k expected (prior: 210k)

  • Continuing claims: 1679 k after 1689 k past week.

 

US: Industrial production (Sept.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.6%)

  • Auto production has shown a sharp contraction, probably related to the strike at GM; only the defense sector has shown a solid 1.1% m/m rise in production. Production in materials and in business equipment was also negative.

  • Despite high volatility on monthly data, industrial production remained slightly higher than in past June, but momentum remained fragile.

 

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Oct.): 5.6 vs 7.6 expected (prior: 12)

  • Sentiment has weakened, but new orders have slightly increased; the 6-month index has regained after the fall seen past month, thanks to new orders, shipments and capex.

  • The index was volatile past months, back to levels seen in Q1 and Q2 and close to the 2015-2016 period; sub-indices remain globally constructive on new orders.

 

UK: Retail sales (Sept.): 0% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.2%)

  • Sales ex auto fuel were up by 0.2% m/m, thanks to firmer sales of clothes and household goods. Yearly trend has increased from 2.6% y/y to 3.1% y/y.

 

Switzerland: Trade balance (Sept.): 4.02 Bn CHF (prior: 1.72Bn)

  • Real exports have rebounded by 2.5% m/m after -3.9% m/m the prior month; real imports were down by 1.3% m/m after 1.4% m/m the prior month.

 

Sweden: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 7.4% (prior: 7.4% revised from 7.1%)

  • The unemployment rate stayed stable after a rebound over the past two months.

 

Market insight 16.10.2019

Disappointing US retail sales in September but strong rise in homebuilders' sentiment

US: Retail sales (Sept.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.4%)

  • Ex auto & gasoline: 0.0% vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.1%)

  • Consumption hit a soft patch in September, but this comes after four consecutive months of strong sales averaging a strong 0.5% increase per month. Yearly trend remains robust at 4%.

  • Control retail sales that is used in GDP calculation GDP was unchanged (vs +0.3% expected), but strong gains in prior months brought its Q3 annualized q/q change to 6.8%, the second strongest gain since Q2 2014.

  • This weakness should be temporary as fundamentals for the consumer remain supportive: job gains, increase in real wages, low interest rates and net worth near record highs.

 

US: NAHB housing market index (Oct.): 71 vs 68 expected (prior: 68)

  • Homebuilder sentiment rose for the fourth consecutive month and climbed to the highest level since February 2018 thanks to cheaper borrowing costs and a still solid job market.

 

UK: CPI (Sept.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Moderate inflation, with high volatility at the sector level; lower prices in energy and transport versus a rebound in clothes, education and communication. Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m

  • Yearly trend remained unchanged at 1.7% y/y. Core inflation has slightly increased from 1.5% y/y to 1.7% y/y.

  • Brexit negotiations will have an impact on GBP and on imported inflation. Current data are well in line with BoE's target.

 

UK: PPI Input prices (Sept.): -0.8% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.1%)

  • All products have shown a decline in prices, partly related to change in currency and also to lower food and energy prices.

  • Yearly trend has sharply decreased from -0.9% y/y to -2.8% y/y.

 

UK: PPI Input prices (Sept.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0% revised from -0.1%)

  • Prices were also declining in food, energy and in some manufacturing sectors, but at a lower extend than in input prices.

  • Yearly trend has eased from 1.7% y/y the prior month to 1.2% y/y.

 

Eurozone: CPI (Sept. F.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Food and services prices have eased from past month.

  • Final inflation has eased more than in first estimate, from 1% y/y the prior month to 0.8% y/y. Core inflation was up 0.4% m/m and up 1% y/y after 0.9% y/y the prior month.

 

Italy: Industrial orders (Aug.): 1.1% m/m (prior: -2.8% revised from -2.9%)

  • Domestic and foreign orders have both slightly regained after depressed numbers; yearly trend remained depressed, down by 10% y/y.

  • Industrial sales were down 0.3% m/m, with foreign and domestic sales both on the decline. Yearly trend has also deteriorated, down by 2% y/y.

 

Italy: CPI (Sept.): 1.4% m/m (prior: 0%)

  • Inflation has rebounded, driven higher by prices of clothes, while food and energy declined.

  • Yearly trend has eased from 0.5% y/y to 0.2% y/y.

Market insight 15.10.2019

UK labor losing momentum on job creations and on wage growth

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Aug.): 3.9% vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.8%)

  • Claimant count: stable at 3.3%; jobless claims: 21.1 k after 16.3 k the prior month. Over the past 3 months, employment has turned negative, showing a contraction by 56 k.

  • Despite still low unemployment rate, labor market has shown slightly deteriorating job creations and rising trend in jobless claims.

 

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Aug.): 3.8% y/y vs 4% expected (prior: 3.9% revised from 4%)

  • Trend in wages has eased after a high pace reached over the past two months. This easing was broad based across sectors, including construction and finance in which the rises were the most significant.

 

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Sept.): -0.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Prices were down by 2% y/y after -1.9% y/y the prior month.

  • Lower oil, food and textile prices have driven imported prices into negative territory (-4% y/y). Producer prices have followed the trend but at a slower pace, being down by 1% y/y.

 

France: CPI (Sept.): -0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Final data confirmed the decrease seen in preliminary estimates. Despite strong rise in clothes, lower food, energy and services prices have driven the decrease. Yearly trend has eased from 1.3% y/y the prior month to 1.1% y/y.

 

Germany: Zew (Oct.): -22.8 vs -26.4 expected (prior: -22.5)

  • Expectations have marginally eased from the prior month, but sentiment on current conditions has fallen significantly.

 

Poland: CPI (Sept.): 0% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Decreasing food and oil prices, balanced by firmer education and clothes prices.

  • Yearly trend has eased from 2.9% y/y the prior month to 2.6% y/y.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (July): 13.9% (prior: 13%)

  • After a decrease in Q2, unemployed has rebounded, due to rising youth unemployment and rising labor force;employment has continued to grow but at a low pace.

Auch lesenswert

Market insight 17.10.2019

US: lower than expected housing starts, Philly Fed and industrial production

US: Housing starts (Sept.): 1256k vs 1320k expected (prior: 1386k revised from 1364k)

  • Building permits: 1387 k after 1425 k prior month. While data for multifamily houses have plunged, single family data were stable over the month for both housing starts and building permits.

  • Total housing starts were highly volatile over the past two months, but absolute numbers remained close to Q2 levels.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Oct.12): 214k vs 215k expected (prior: 210k)

  • Continuing claims: 1679 k after 1689 k past week.

 

US: Industrial production (Sept.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.6%)

  • Auto production has shown a sharp contraction, probably related to the strike at GM; only the defense sector has shown a solid 1.1% m/m rise in production. Production in materials and in business equipment was also negative.

  • Despite high volatility on monthly data, industrial production remained slightly higher than in past June, but momentum remained fragile.

 

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Oct.): 5.6 vs 7.6 expected (prior: 12)

  • Sentiment has weakened, but new orders have slightly increased; the 6-month index has regained after the fall seen past month, thanks to new orders, shipments and capex.

  • The index was volatile past months, back to levels seen in Q1 and Q2 and close to the 2015-2016 period; sub-indices remain globally constructive on new orders.

 

UK: Retail sales (Sept.): 0% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.2%)

  • Sales ex auto fuel were up by 0.2% m/m, thanks to firmer sales of clothes and household goods. Yearly trend has increased from 2.6% y/y to 3.1% y/y.

 

Switzerland: Trade balance (Sept.): 4.02 Bn CHF (prior: 1.72Bn)

  • Real exports have rebounded by 2.5% m/m after -3.9% m/m the prior month; real imports were down by 1.3% m/m after 1.4% m/m the prior month.

 

Sweden: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 7.4% (prior: 7.4% revised from 7.1%)

  • The unemployment rate stayed stable after a rebound over the past two months.

 

Market insight 16.10.2019

Disappointing US retail sales in September but strong rise in homebuilders' sentiment

US: Retail sales (Sept.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.4%)

  • Ex auto & gasoline: 0.0% vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.1%)

  • Consumption hit a soft patch in September, but this comes after four consecutive months of strong sales averaging a strong 0.5% increase per month. Yearly trend remains robust at 4%.

  • Control retail sales that is used in GDP calculation GDP was unchanged (vs +0.3% expected), but strong gains in prior months brought its Q3 annualized q/q change to 6.8%, the second strongest gain since Q2 2014.

  • This weakness should be temporary as fundamentals for the consumer remain supportive: job gains, increase in real wages, low interest rates and net worth near record highs.

 

US: NAHB housing market index (Oct.): 71 vs 68 expected (prior: 68)

  • Homebuilder sentiment rose for the fourth consecutive month and climbed to the highest level since February 2018 thanks to cheaper borrowing costs and a still solid job market.

 

UK: CPI (Sept.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Moderate inflation, with high volatility at the sector level; lower prices in energy and transport versus a rebound in clothes, education and communication. Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m

  • Yearly trend remained unchanged at 1.7% y/y. Core inflation has slightly increased from 1.5% y/y to 1.7% y/y.

  • Brexit negotiations will have an impact on GBP and on imported inflation. Current data are well in line with BoE's target.

 

UK: PPI Input prices (Sept.): -0.8% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.1%)

  • All products have shown a decline in prices, partly related to change in currency and also to lower food and energy prices.

  • Yearly trend has sharply decreased from -0.9% y/y to -2.8% y/y.

 

UK: PPI Input prices (Sept.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0% revised from -0.1%)

  • Prices were also declining in food, energy and in some manufacturing sectors, but at a lower extend than in input prices.

  • Yearly trend has eased from 1.7% y/y the prior month to 1.2% y/y.

 

Eurozone: CPI (Sept. F.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Food and services prices have eased from past month.

  • Final inflation has eased more than in first estimate, from 1% y/y the prior month to 0.8% y/y. Core inflation was up 0.4% m/m and up 1% y/y after 0.9% y/y the prior month.

 

Italy: Industrial orders (Aug.): 1.1% m/m (prior: -2.8% revised from -2.9%)

  • Domestic and foreign orders have both slightly regained after depressed numbers; yearly trend remained depressed, down by 10% y/y.

  • Industrial sales were down 0.3% m/m, with foreign and domestic sales both on the decline. Yearly trend has also deteriorated, down by 2% y/y.

 

Italy: CPI (Sept.): 1.4% m/m (prior: 0%)

  • Inflation has rebounded, driven higher by prices of clothes, while food and energy declined.

  • Yearly trend has eased from 0.5% y/y to 0.2% y/y.

Market insight 15.10.2019

UK labor losing momentum on job creations and on wage growth

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Aug.): 3.9% vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.8%)

  • Claimant count: stable at 3.3%; jobless claims: 21.1 k after 16.3 k the prior month. Over the past 3 months, employment has turned negative, showing a contraction by 56 k.

  • Despite still low unemployment rate, labor market has shown slightly deteriorating job creations and rising trend in jobless claims.

 

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Aug.): 3.8% y/y vs 4% expected (prior: 3.9% revised from 4%)

  • Trend in wages has eased after a high pace reached over the past two months. This easing was broad based across sectors, including construction and finance in which the rises were the most significant.

 

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Sept.): -0.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Prices were down by 2% y/y after -1.9% y/y the prior month.

  • Lower oil, food and textile prices have driven imported prices into negative territory (-4% y/y). Producer prices have followed the trend but at a slower pace, being down by 1% y/y.

 

France: CPI (Sept.): -0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Final data confirmed the decrease seen in preliminary estimates. Despite strong rise in clothes, lower food, energy and services prices have driven the decrease. Yearly trend has eased from 1.3% y/y the prior month to 1.1% y/y.

 

Germany: Zew (Oct.): -22.8 vs -26.4 expected (prior: -22.5)

  • Expectations have marginally eased from the prior month, but sentiment on current conditions has fallen significantly.

 

Poland: CPI (Sept.): 0% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Decreasing food and oil prices, balanced by firmer education and clothes prices.

  • Yearly trend has eased from 2.9% y/y the prior month to 2.6% y/y.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (July): 13.9% (prior: 13%)

  • After a decrease in Q2, unemployed has rebounded, due to rising youth unemployment and rising labor force;employment has continued to grow but at a low pace.