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Market insight 10.07.2018

US: lower job openings but higher rotation; mixed industrial production in Europe

US: lower job openings but higher rotation; mixed industrial production in Europe

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (June): 107.2 vs 106.9 expected (prior: 107.8)

  • Sentiment has eased somewhat on future economic conditions and sales.
  • Plan for capex has eroded, but the index remained high, while plan to hire has increased further.
  • The index was volatile over the past months, but it remains close to its highest level.

 

US: JOLTS Job Openings (May): 6638 vs 6620 expected (prior: 6840 revised from 6698)

  • Job openings have moderated, but remained high.
  • Lower openings were centered in services: information, business services, education-health and leisure; openings have also eased in manufacturing.
  • Hirings rebounded in May, particularly in construction, business services healthcare and leisure.
  • Quitters have also increased over the month, and particularly in trade, healthcare and leisure.
  • Positive trend in labor has led to a higher rotation, with obvious tensions in some specific sectors.

 

Germany: Zew (July): -24.7 vs -18.9 expected (prior: -16.1)

  • Expectations and opinions on current situation have both declined more than expected. Expectations were back to the lows seen in 2012.
  • Escalating risks of a trade war have weighted down on sentiment, despite recent more positive signals on activity.

 

France: Industrial production (May): -0.2% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -0.5%)

  • Manufacturing production was down by 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% m/m expected (0.4% m/m in the prior month).
  • Activity has contracted in all sectors, except on energy. Strikes and a short month (in terms of working days) could partly explain these relatively poor figures.

 

Italy: Industrial production (May): 0.7% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: -1.3% revised from -1.2%)

  • Production has rebounded after contraction in May in all sectors, except consumer durable goods.
  • Industrial activity shows a 2% y/y trend, but domestic political uncertainties and trade dispute fuel downside risks on growth.

 

UK: Industrial production (May): -0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -1% revised from -0.8%)

  • Manufacturing production was up by 0.4% m/m vs 0.7% m/m expected (-1.3% m/m in Apr.).
  • Production in energy and machinery equipment stayed negative over the month, while clothes and pharma sectors have shown the largest rebound.
  • Production trend has turned more volatile and stayed weak, below 1% y/y.

 

UK: BRC retail sales (June): 1.1% y/y (prior: 2.8%)

  • After huge volatility in May and April, figures have slightly improved, showing a pace of growth above 1% y/y,
  • Good weather conditions and the World Cup have boosted sales

 

Norway: CPI (June): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Inflation has accelerated from 2.3% y/y in May to 2.6% y/y; core inflation was up by 0.4% m/m, but trend was stable at 1.1% y/y. Housing, transport and leisure have shown a strong monthly rebound.


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