US: lower job openings but higher rotation; mixed industrial production in Europe
US: NFIB Small Business optimism (June): 107.2 vs 106.9 expected (prior: 107.8)
- Sentiment has eased somewhat on future economic conditions and sales.
- Plan for capex has eroded, but the index remained high, while plan to hire has increased further.
- The index was volatile over the past months, but it remains close to its highest level.
US: JOLTS Job Openings (May): 6638 vs 6620 expected (prior: 6840 revised from 6698)
- Job openings have moderated, but remained high.
- Lower openings were centered in services: information, business services, education-health and leisure; openings have also eased in manufacturing.
- Hirings rebounded in May, particularly in construction, business services healthcare and leisure.
- Quitters have also increased over the month, and particularly in trade, healthcare and leisure.
- Positive trend in labor has led to a higher rotation, with obvious tensions in some specific sectors.
Germany: Zew (July): -24.7 vs -18.9 expected (prior: -16.1)
- Expectations and opinions on current situation have both declined more than expected. Expectations were back to the lows seen in 2012.
- Escalating risks of a trade war have weighted down on sentiment, despite recent more positive signals on activity.
France: Industrial production (May): -0.2% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -0.5%)
- Manufacturing production was down by 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% m/m expected (0.4% m/m in the prior month).
- Activity has contracted in all sectors, except on energy. Strikes and a short month (in terms of working days) could partly explain these relatively poor figures.
Italy: Industrial production (May): 0.7% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: -1.3% revised from -1.2%)
- Production has rebounded after contraction in May in all sectors, except consumer durable goods.
- Industrial activity shows a 2% y/y trend, but domestic political uncertainties and trade dispute fuel downside risks on growth.
UK: Industrial production (May): -0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -1% revised from -0.8%)
- Manufacturing production was up by 0.4% m/m vs 0.7% m/m expected (-1.3% m/m in Apr.).
- Production in energy and machinery equipment stayed negative over the month, while clothes and pharma sectors have shown the largest rebound.
- Production trend has turned more volatile and stayed weak, below 1% y/y.
UK: BRC retail sales (June): 1.1% y/y (prior: 2.8%)
- After huge volatility in May and April, figures have slightly improved, showing a pace of growth above 1% y/y,
- Good weather conditions and the World Cup have boosted sales
Norway: CPI (June): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Inflation has accelerated from 2.3% y/y in May to 2.6% y/y; core inflation was up by 0.4% m/m, but trend was stable at 1.1% y/y. Housing, transport and leisure have shown a strong monthly rebound.