US: rebounding business sentiment in services, but disappointing job creations (ADP survey)
US: ADP Employment change (July): 167k vs 1200k expected (prior: 4314k revised from 2369k)
- Job creations came significantly lower than expected after past month data were revised up.
- Services and large companies have hired more people over the month, while employment has contracted in medium-sized firms.
- After strong recovery, labor data have turned less positive pointing towards potential disappointment on Friday non-farm payrolls (1.5m job creations expected by consensus).
US: Trade balance (June): -50.7 bn USD vs -50.2 bn expected (prior: -54.8 bn revised from -54.6 bn)
- Exports were up by 9.4% m/m, while imports were up by only 4.7% m/m, leading to a lower monthly trade deficit.
- The rebound in exports was mainly driven by autos.
US: Markit Services PMI (July): 50 vs 49.6 expected (prior: 47.9)
- Sentiment on services were slightly better than in the first estimate. Activity has recovered from the lockdown, but new orders and foreign orders remained weak; uncertainties on future demand are related to new rise in social distancing on some sectors and regions.
US: ISM Non-manufacturing (July): 58.1 vs 55 expected (prior: 57.1)
- Sentiment has gained further, driven up by rising activity, backlog of orders and new orders; on the opposite, sentiment on new export orders and on imports has moderated after initial rebound past month.
- Sentiment on employment remained low: it has moderated after modest rebound past month; in addition to weak ADP survey, subcomponents of business confidence on employment also fuel downside risks to non-farm payrolls.
UK: PMI Services (July): 56.5 vs 56.6 expected (prior: 47.1)
- Sentiment has strongly rebounded (well above the 50 mark), but just below expectations and first estimate.
- New business has regained thanks to the reopening of the economy, but sentiment on employment remained low.
Eurozone: PMI Services (July): 54.7 vs 55.1 expected (prior: 48.3)
- Sentiment has strongly rebounded but slightly less than estimated previously.
- Final data were slightly weaker than in first estimates in France (57.3 vs 57.8), Germany (55.6 vs 56.7), but sentiment was firmer than expected in Spain (52.8 vs 52; 49.7 the prior month) and in Italy (51.6 vs 51.4; 46.4 the prior month).
- Ater a rebound in activity thanks to the end of the lockdown, weak foreign demand and uncertainties on future domestic demand due to rising COVID cases in some countries/regions could weigh on the pace of the ongoing recovery in August.
Eurozone: Retail sales (June): 5.7% m/m vs 6.1% expected (prior: 20.3% revised from 17.8%)
- The rebound has continued but at a slower pace over the month.
- Sales of autos and clothes have been sustained for another month, while the recovery has moderated in the other sectors; purchases by internet decreased by 6.8% m/m after several months of sustained growth trend.
Sweden: GDP (Q2-20): -8.6% q/q vs -8% expected (prior: -0.3%)
- First estimate has pointed towards significant contraction, but slightly less negative than in other European countries.
Sweden: Industrial production (June): 0.7% m/m (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.4%)
- Manufacturing production was up by 6.6% m/m and activity in services was up by 0.5% m/m.
- Separately, industrial orders were up by 6.7% m/m after 4.6% m/m the prior month.
Russia: PMI Services (July): 58.5 vs 51 expected (prior: 47.8)
- Sentiment has rebounded, driven by a strong rise in new business.
Brazil: PMI Services (July): 42.5 (prior: 35.9)
- Sentiment on new business and employment has increased from prior month low.